There is hope among Minnesota Twins’ faithful that Derek Falvey is waiting at his desk, hand on his phone as he anxiously awaits the moment when MLB’s lockout officially ends. Because at that second, they have some vital work to do in constructing the 2022 roster. There will surely be a storm of activity in the hours and days that follow that announcement, and the Twins can’t afford to twiddle their thumbs like they did before the lockout started.
As it currently stands, their roster has projections estimating that they’ll win somewhere in the neighborhood of 73-76 wins. That’s a fair assessment given they won 73 last year, and that was with Nelson Cruz and José Berríos in tow for the first four months. Now, they have to:
- Find the proper replacements or even upgrades to those two
- Another rotation fixture
- A starting shortstop
- And possibly a reliever or two.
Let’s hope owner Jim Pohlad remembers to pay the phone bill because the Twins’ front office needs to be making these calls as soon as they get the green light.
Call Michael Pineda’s representation about a short-term reunion
Sure, many would agree that the Twins need to get something big for their starting rotation. Well, how about someone who is big?
Big Mike probably shouldn’t be relied upon as a staff ace, a solid No. 2 option in the rotation, or even a potential playoff starter if the team gets there. But is he a better option than Randy Dobnak, Lewis Thorpe, or whoever the Twins currently have penciled into their rotation? Absolutely.
He still manages to get opponents to chase his breaking balls, as evidenced by the 44% chase rate on sliders last season. According to Inside Edge, that was good for the fourth-highest in baseball among pitchers with at least 77 innings pitched. He also has great control and avoids walks like he owes them money. His 5% walk rate was ninth-best among qualified starters in 2021, and his BB/9 has never been above 2.89 (his rookie season with the Seattle Mariners).
Big Mike definitely has his warts, especially in regards to injuries. He only made 21 starts last year thanks to a myriad of ailments that kept him on the injured list from time to time. Plus, his fastball has lost its luster. The average velocity on his heater has decreased every season for the last five years, which can be a significant concern for someone entering their age-33 season.
However, these warts could work in Minnesota’s favor. They can get somebody who they like very much as a person and who could still provide good value if he pitches anything close to his projections for a relatively low price. ZiPS projects him to finish the 2022 season with a 4.29 ERA in 109 innings pitched across 21 starts. It’s not going to propel the Twins to the World Series on its own. But it’s a good move to make with the idea of having one or multiple top pitching prospects share time in Pineda’s rotation spot throughout the year.
Call the Cincinnati Reds about a major trade
The Reds are known to be seeking a way out of their big financial commitments. They’ve had some relative success in the last few seasons. But ownership is hoping to pivot into a fresh start fiscally, even if it means going into a soft rebuild. The Twins are not flush with cash, but they have some room in their projected budget to get creative. They could swing a trade that sends a package of prospects to Cincinnati for a solid starting pitcher, a middle reliever, and a former All-Star slugger. The deal would look something like this:
Twins get: SP Sonny Gray, RP Luis Cessa, and IF Eugenio Suarez
Reds get: SP Josh Winder, OF Matt Wallner, OF Emmanuel Rodriguez
Gray would instantly be the top dog in Minnesota’s rotation and brings a solid track record of good-to-great production. Though he finished the 2021 season with a mediocre 4.19 ERA thanks to a rough September, he had a very good season overall. Gray was worth 2.4 fWAR, had an excellent 10.3 K/9, and will only cost $10.4 million. If he pitches like that again, it will make the club’s 2023 option a no-brainer. If he fails to impress, he’s off the books after just a year.
Cessa would be a welcome addition to a middling Twins’ bullpen. He could slot into a middle relief role currently held by the likes of Cody Stashak or Ralph Garza Jr. He’s in his final year of arbitration and comes with just a $1.5 million price tag.
Suarez is the kicker in this deal, as he has had back-to-back below-average seasons and is owed a whopping $33 million over the next three seasons. Including him in this deal would be a pure salary dump for the Reds, but Suarez can offer some relief at third base if Josh Donaldson needs a rest. And he still has enough pop in his bat to be a solid designated hitter option. He hit 31 home runs last season while striking out 29.8% of the time, similar to what Twins fans saw from Miguel Sanó last year. Can the team handle two “boom or bust” sluggers in the same lineup?
The Reds would get a near-MLB-ready starting pitcher in the form of Winder (Minnesota’s No. 4 ranked prospect according to Fangraphs) and a pair of outfield prospects that will need a couple of seasons to develop in Wallner (No. 10 prospect) and Rodriguez (No. 25 prospect). Most importantly, they get roughly $45 million in guaranteed money off their books.
Call the Dodgers about a trade for a young shortstop
The empty hole at shortstop is a glaring need for the Twins, at least until they find out if top prospect Royce Lewis can take it over full-time. However, that discovery probably won’t happen until next season at the earliest. In the meantime, the team needs somebody to fill that spot, and the free agents that remain on the market are either too expensive (Carlos Correa and Trevor Story) or wouldn’t move the needle very much (Jonathan Villar, Jose Iglesias, and *gulp* Andrelton Simmons). The Twins should explore a trade for someone like former top prospect Gavin Lux, who hasn’t found his footing at the big league level but still offers promise.
But Lux may be out of luck with MVP candidate Trea Turner assuming the role as starting shortstop, Chris Taylor recently re-signed to a four-year deal, and top prospect Michael Busch knocking at the door at Triple-A.
So what would the Dodgers want in return? The favorites in the National League don’t have any glaring needs on their projected roster, but they could use a left-handed complement to platoon with outfielder AJ Pollock. Would Max Kepler be a good starting point? He offers stellar defense, cost control for at least the next two years (with an option for 2024), and great numbers against right-handed pitchers (114 wRC+ against righties in 2021, 113 in his career). The Twins probably need to add a mid-tier prospect or two, but it’s worth a call. At best, Lux could rediscover the power stroke that made him a top prospect, and at worst, he would be a good flier until Lewis gets his call.
