Like many hopeless millennial romantics, the Minnesota Twins have a problem with commitment. That’s doubly true for their relationships with free-agent starting pitchers. Their newest boy-toy that they’ve been seeing is former All-Star Chris Archer, who they signed to a reasonable one-year contract worth a guaranteed $3.5 million.
Let’s just say he fits the Twins’ type. He’s the latest in a string of low-commitment suitors that includes the likes of Martín Pérez, Rich Hill, Homer Bailey, J.A. Happ, and Matt Shoemaker. None of those relationships lasted particularly long, mostly by design. Some fell short due to nagging injury concerns (Perez, Hill, Bailey). Some got too long of a leash in-season when it was clear that the relationship had run its course (Happ and Shoemaker). But that’s what the Twins signed up for. They wanted to have a fun, casual summer with these guys who showed them a little attention in free agency. That in itself isn’t particularly harmful. They were low-risk moves. Maybe they weren’t true love, but they were comfortable.
The problem is that their failed endeavors led to further failed endeavors based on the logic that one is bound to get a good break eventually.
Can Archer be the guy who finally wins over the hearts of the Twins front office and fans? What does that even look like? The intrigue of a reclamation project is certainly enticing, but what if he’s just another in a line of damaged goods?
At the very least, Archer provides a lot more upside than the aforementioned veteran hurlers, both in the clubhouse and on the field. He’s a likable personality and, by all indications, a good teammate. Archer also has to view this opportunity with the Twins as a fresh start after a few lousy years regarding his health. He’s not just competing on behalf of his team but also for his next payday, whereas that wasn’t exactly clear with older pitchers like Hill and Happ.
The rumor on the street is that he’s coming into camp in excellent shape, which is encouraging because he missed significant time last year. Before signing the deal, he held a bullpen session/showcase where he stretched out to around 60 pitches. Hopefully, one or two more appearances in Florida will get him tuned up enough to slide right into the back end of the rotation. We could see him on the mound as soon as the second game against the Los Angeles Dodgers on Wednesday, April 13.
Archer’s appeal comes from his history as a frontline starter at his peak and five solidly above-average seasons from 2014 to 2018. He averaged 191 innings pitched per year, with a 3.76 ERA and a nifty 1.25 WHIP. His 10.1 K/9 was well above average, and his 3.0 walks per nine innings was entirely palatable for a workhorse. He made two All-Star appearances and was the talk of the town at the 2018 trade deadline. At that point, he was the headliner in a blockbuster trade between the Tampa Bay Rays and the Pittsburgh Pirates, a swap that has become infamous based on the one-sided nature of the results. Archer went to Pittsburgh in exchange for flamethrower Tyler Glasnow, All-Star slugger Austin Meadows and consensus top prospect Shane Baz.
At the time of the trade, Archer’s defining pitch was his lethal slider, which helped him rack up strikeouts at a rapid pace. In 2018, his slider was in the 72nd percentile for spin rate, and he used that deception to his advantage. It helps that his fastball averaged 94.7 MPH back then, putting him in the 78th percentile for fastball velocity. Things went downhill when he couldn’t match that heat, and his relationship with the Pirates ended when they couldn’t find that spark anymore. He sat out the shortened 2020 season and re-signed with his former sweetheart in Tampa Bay last year. In the end, they also split with him when he just couldn’t be available when they needed him most. He missed time with a forearm strain, and then his season was cut short by a hip injury.
Given Archer’s recent injury history and the nature of his contract, maybe the Twins have adjusted their expectations for what a relationship should be. Perhaps they don’t need to expect him to be a mainstay in the starting rotation that hurls close to 200 innings a year. Archer gets bonuses based on how many nine-out outings he completes, so maybe they expect him to be something closer to an opener rather than a rotation fixture.
The Twins aren’t just betting on a love connection with Archer. They’re betting on themselves. Just because the last few relationships ended up being duds doesn’t necessarily mean this one will. They know the upside of this kind of value deal, and they can’t help but think this could finally be the one. Archer is still low-commitment, like a summer flame, but he has a few redeeming qualities to give hope that something substantial will materialize. If not, they could find themselves swiping away at next year’s crop of suitors.
