There’s a new sheriff in the Minnesota Twins rotation picture. Or at least someone who is shootin’ to be one someday.
The club pulled the trigger on trading for Chris Paddack, a 26-year-old starter with a checkered past. While he is coming off two underwhelming years with the San Diego Padres, he burst onto the scene with a brilliant rookie campaign in 2019. He’s shown both sides of the coin in his young career. The Twins have given it another flip, and they’re calling heads. So which side will they get for an ever-important 2022 season?
They certainly gave up a pretty penny for this opportunity. Relief ace Taylor Rogers will now join his brother Tyler Rogers in the NL West. The former Twin was one of the more popular players on the roster, both in the clubhouse and among the fan base. His career 3.15 ERA and 10.3 K/9 have been foundational to any success the bullpen has had in the last six seasons and will be sorely missed in the near term.
However, Paddack’s three years of team control while he’s just entering his prime are far too enticing in the long haul.
Still, the Twins will have to get Paddack the right pistols to fit in his holster. In his three years in the big leagues, he has seemed to swap out effective offerings in the pursuit of finding success. Paddack had a brilliant fastball in 2019, a masterful changeup in 2020, and a solid if unspectacular curveball last season. But he can never seem to get them firing on all cylinders simultaneously, hence the roller coaster of a career thus far.
The Twins are banking on making adjustments to his repertoire and approach, especially with his fastball. Over the past two seasons, hitters have crushed him on that pitch, with an average exit velocity of 92.8 MPH (6th-highest in MLB in that span). While he still can get punchouts with his heater, they mostly come when he can elevate them. He gets crushed when he misfires and leaves them over the heart of the plate.
A curious development in this trade is the absence of a slider in Paddack’s repertoire. That’s been a critical tool in most of the pitchers that Minnesota has brought in over the years, from Martín Pérez to Kenta Maeda to Chris Archer.
Paddack has messed around with a cutter against lefty hitters in the last two seasons, one that is almost a mini slider based on its small break. Unfortunately, it has lacked the depth and consistency to develop into a true out pitch.
Can pitching coach Wes Johnson get him to shape this pitch into a usable offering? He’s done it with other hurlers in the past. If he can work his magic, it’ll be a good gun for Paddack to hide in his boot in case things get dicey in the showdown. If he can’t, then Paddack could find himself a few bullets short of a six-shooter.
Paddack’s changeup was a plus offering in his first two seasons, but it regressed considerably last year. In 2019 and 2020, opponents had just a .189 batting average against Paddack’s changeups. However, in 2021 that number ballooned to an unspectacular .234 batting average against, with a .457 expected slugging percentage. That increase isn’t going to derail a season on its own. But pair it with an erratic fastball, and it’s a recipe for disaster.
The Twins need Paddack to evolve if he wants to wear that shiny gold star on his chest in Minnesota. They need him to locate his fastball. Namely, keep it out of the heart of the plate. They need him to rediscover his changeup and continue to develop his curveball. And, oh yeah, stay healthy along the way. All of this is a big ask for a 26-year-old. But this town needs a strong, reliable sheriff. Things had been tailing for him in the Wild West, so maybe it was about time he hit the road in search of a new town. And while the Target Field will be a welcome sight for Paddack’s sore eyes, he will have to win over the townspeople.
Skeptical members of the Twins fan base will be giving him the side-eye from the very start. The best thing he can do is nail them right between the eyes with a shot from a bonafide ace.
So it’s time to load his pistols, dust off his ten-gallon hat, and count out his 10 paces. He has the stuff to be a long-term fixture in the Twins rotation. Does he have a good enough shot to be the sheriff?
