It’s going to be hard to convince Minnesota Twins fans that there are any aspects of the 2022 season that merit consideration for extension. Even when things were going right, the angst of a challenging season was palpable. However, a few players could find themselves in a more central role with the club in 2023. The question is, should they be considered for future plans even beyond next year?
There can be a lot of risk when extending a player, but there are also clear advantages. Whether that’s determining a core piece of the team’s future, cost control, or identifying positive trends, there are many advantages to getting pen to paper this off-season.
Here are a few players that the Twins could look to extend for various reasons.
Luis Arraez
There are countless reasons why Derek Falvey and the top decision-makers for the Twins should consider extending their star infielder/designated hitter. Arraez is still glowing from his American League batting crown this year, and his .316 average actually came off pretty modest if you’ve watched him all season. If not for an August that was lackluster by his standards (yet slightly above league average), Arraez’s final hitting line would be even more impressive. He hit just .269/.316/.394 (103 wRC+) that month, and he was one of the only regular stars of the club that was in the lineup daily to keep the season afloat, despite a nagging injury.
That deserves recognition as much as the batting crown does, and his positives don’t end with his determination and grit. This year, Arraez hit a whopping .371 with runners on base (trailing only Freddie Freeman of the Los Angeles Dodgers for the best rate in all of baseball). Arraez also boasts the lowest strikeout rate (8.5%) and lowest miss rate (9%) since the beginning of the 2020 season. That perfectly represents his elite bat-to-ball skills that can anchor a lineup for years to come.
One way the club can show appreciation for their budding star is to lock up his three remaining arbitration years and buy control for a few more beyond that. Still just 25 years old, Arraez is currently slated to hit free agency after the 2025 season. If the Twins can lock him into a deal with a similar structure to the one that Jorge Polanco signed in 2019, Arraez would don a Twins uniform through his age 30 season, with multiple vesting club options after that. He would undoubtedly require a higher financial guarantee than Polanco, but the deal’s structure would be an ideal outcome for the Twins.
Gio Urshela
Though his star doesn’t shine quite as bright as that of Arraez, Urshela had a quietly superb first season in Minnesota. He came over in the trade that was headlined Josh Donaldson going to the New York Yankees, but he ended up outplaying the former star third baseman by a sizable margin. While Donaldson batted .222/.308/.374 (97 wRC+) in 132 games played, Urshela outpaced him to the tune of a .285/.338/.429 (119 wRC+) line and roughly league-average defense.
The Twins have a plethora of young infielders, including Jose Miranda, Royce Lewis, and Brooks Lee, who may eventually wind up at third base. Still, it’s hard to ignore Urshela’s second half. From July 2 through the end of the season, his bat was 37% better than league average, and he played nearly every game. In 2022, Urshela cut his strikeouts by almost 8%, which led to a 37-point rise in his on-base percentage.
By the end of the year, he was batting exclusively in the top half of the lineup. Sure, that had a lot to do with various injuries to other players, but do we really think the team won’t be dealing with those same issues for the next few years? Urshela represents a solid floor for the club, and if other players can impress enough to unseat him from the hot corner, then that’s an excellent problem for the team to have.
Since Urshela is already 30 years old, an extension would be on the more modest side. He’ll be arbitration-eligible for the last time in 2023, and he’s probably looking at a roughly $8-9 million price tag. If the Twins can lock him into a two- or three-year contract to create a safety net in case the youngsters aren’t ready, it could be a smart move. Urshela is likable, he’s effective on both sides of the game, and a short-term extension would be easy to pivot away from if plans change.
Tyler Mahle
This extension candidate would be the riskiest out of the three. Like Urshela, Mahle has just one more year of club control and is bound to have a handful of younger options breathing down his neck shortly. However, the Twins have been hunting for high-end starting pitching since Louie Varland was in Pampers, and they paid a high price to land him at the trade deadline. They gave up two of their top infield prospects in Spencer Steer and Christian Encarnacion-Strand, along with a promising pitcher in Steve Hajjar. Mahle only lasted four starts with the Twins, and two were cut short due to injury. That’s not what you want to see from a premier trade addition, and it puts his 2023 season under the microscope.
If the Twins want to salvage a better chance at getting a more favorable return on their investment, they could look to sign Mahle to a modest extension so that all of their chips aren’t in his 2023 season basket. The righty just turned 28, so signing him now would guarantee to have him under contract in his prime years. However, Mahle could decide to bet on himself and test the open market heading into 2024.
After all, there is plenty to like about the former Cincinnati Reds pitcher. This season, he found himself in the 65th percentile for strikeout percentage, the 69th percentile for fastball spin rate, and the 76th percentile for expected batting average against. If he can show that same nastiness while maintaining good health in 2023, he’ll surely be looking for a sizable four- or five-year deal on the open market. But considering his injury issues over the last few years, that’s a pretty big if. He may want to play it safe if his new club offers a proper guarantee.
Thanks to his positive attributes, the Twins bet on Mahle at the trade deadline. Could they double down on that wager for the next few years?
