Early in the season, the Minnesota Twins had the makeup of a classic 1957 Chevy Bel-Air.
The offense looked sharp, pitching was getting the job done, and they were leading a weak division. The Twins had a 30-22 record on June 1 and a five-game lead over the Cleveland Guardians and Chicago White Sox in the AL Central. They were a winning team who looked good while doing it with the 11th-most home runs and RBIs. Minnesota’s great start through the first third of the season seemed to indicate that it would cruise into a first-place finish for the division. They looked like they were going to return to the postseason with an AL Central title.
Maybe the Twins aren’t perfectly comparable to a classic muscle car. There were issues with rotation and the back end of the bullpen depth as the season went on, but it seemed like everything was clicking in the spring and early summer. Like any good vehicle, there’s always something that can go wrong if you don’t maintain it.
The 2022 Twins may need to go under the hood to inspect the clutch.
Since June 1, the team owns a 32-36 record and is currently on the outside looking in for the AL Central and the remaining AL Wild Card spots. The slip first came from the bullpen blowing games in June and July. However, the pitching staff has at least stabilized itself to be a serviceable unit lately. The lineup has struggled to pick up the pace, especially in high-leverage situations. Knocking in runners in scoring position has been an issue for this lineup all season long.
Minnesota’s lineup seems okay on the surface. Their 144 home runs are still good enough to place ninth in the league and seventh in baseball with 111 wRC+. A low strikeout rate and a top-10 walk rate to pair with those run production numbers should mean a consistently good lineup. However, that hasn’t quite happened. It’s not that the Twins aren’t getting guys on base; they are. Their .319 team OBP is the eighth-best in baseball. The problem has been bringing those runners around to score.
The Twins are 21st in baseball with a .245 average with RISP and 22nd with a .702 team OPS in those situations. In terms of run production:
- Their 347 runs are 23rd in baseball
- Their 27 home runs rank 21st
- They are 23rd with 330 RBIs
- And they’re 20th in the league with 101 wRC+
Most playoff teams are ahead of them in every category listed above. The only exception is their batting average with RISP, which is just two points better than the New York Yankees. That’s not ideal, and their numbers have only worsened since June 1. They are 23rd with 91 wRC+ and have only scored 192 runs in that span, 25th overall. The Twins own a 24th-ranked .669 team OPS. Big hits have eluded this team all season, and it may cost them a playoff spot.
Watching the Texas Rangers series made it evident that Minnesota’s ability to produce with runners in scoring position has been costing them crucial games they need to win to catch Cleveland in the division race. During that series, the Twins were 2 for 26 when a runner got to second base or farther. Two of the three games they lost in that series were by only one run.
So what gives? It’s hard to imagine the Twins lineup struggling as much as they have, especially when it features players like Byron Buxton, Luis Arraez, and Carlos Correa. A high volume of strikeouts may be to blame. Or it could be the team’s overreliance on home runs.
However, that’s not the case. The Twins have some home-run hitters, but they’re low ranking with RISP, and only a 38 percent fly-ball rate in these situations since June probably doesn’t mean that’s the culprit. Since June 1, Twins hitters have only hit 18 home runs, around the league average for teams during that time. If anything, maybe some more home runs would benefit the Twins with guys on base.
As for strikeouts, a 20.8 percent strikeout rate with RISP is league-average. It could be better, but it certainly isn’t the glaring issue. Launch angle isn’t the problem, either. The Twins are about league average.
Minnesota’s hitters are just taking poor at-bats in crucial situations.
All season long, the Twins have been unable to hit the ball hard. They have been able to make contact. As a unit, the Twins are barreling up 9.3 percent of their contact compared to a league average of 7.6 percent. Hitters haven’t been able to maximize exit velocity all season long. Their average EV is 89.6 MPH, hovering around the league average rate of 88.6 MPH.
There isn’t much you can do to bring a runner on base home if the only thing you can do is hit a soft grounder too short or a soft fly ball to center field. Clutch hitting has been a soft spot in this team that has impacted the lineup from top to bottom. Now the issue is figuring out a way to fix the problem.
One way is the technical route. A change in approach might be to try and generate a little more velocity in their hitters’ swing, even if it comes at the cost of contact. However, the problem is that it’s not just a hitter or two who are struggling, but a majority of the lineup. Also, there is just over a month to go in the season, so there might not be enough time for the Twins to implement significant changes for their hitters.
There are only 30 games left, so their best chance is to go on a roll. Maybe they can recapture the magic they had during the first two months of the season. It is more of a desperation attempt, but the hope is that guys like Trevor Larnach, Ryan Jeffers, and Buxton will be back soon and lengthen the lineup. It’s a last-ditch effort, but it might be all they have.
The Twins haven’t been able to fix their clutch. They are getting increasingly closer to having that rusty part break down the whole team as they try to ride into the postseason. There isn’t much the Twins can do to fix the issue this year other than to shake up their approach or hope that a handful of hitters can get hot at the right time.
