Two months into the 2022 season, Carlos Correa has been everything the Minnesota Twins could have asked for.
After a slow start, he’s started to heat up at the plate. He’s also played Gold Glove-caliber defense at shortstop. Correa’s presence in the clubhouse has been excellent. He loves Juicy Lucy burgers and the Minnesota State Fair. He spends his spare time shaking hands and kissing babies, and the Twins lead the American League Central.
Maybe Correa hasn’t been campaigning for a seat on the state senate. But with that list of accolades, you might hope that he exercises the first of two one-year options on his contract. However, if Correa decides to return to the Twins, it could create a situation that could handcuff them in the long run.
That sounds insane if you’ve been watching the Twins. Minnesota nearly threw a parade when Correa signed last spring. If he’s serious about signing a long-term deal, the Twins would be crazy not to back up a Brinks truck to his house.
But this goes beyond what the Twins currently have. It’s about what they could build moving forward.
On the surface, Correa’s numbers look great. Over his last 19 games, he’s hitting .363/.414/.529 with two homers and 13 RBI. In those games, the Twins have gone 13-6 and appear to be on track for a playoff appearance. But they didn’t expect that Royce Lewis would be just as good right away.
In 12 games this season, Lewis is hitting .300/.317/.550 with two homers and five RBI. He’s looked comfortable playing shortstop and has been a pleasant surprise after not playing competitive baseball for two years.
Obviously, Lewis’s stats are part of a small sample size. But it’s a sign that the Twins don’t have to spend $35.1 million to fill the position.
Take a look at Correa’s old team, the Houston Astros. The Astros wanted to keep Correa around, but they also had a top prospect, Jeremy Peña, in the minors. Ultimately, the Astros decided to save their cash and use the younger, cheaper option at shortstop.
The gamble has paid off beautifully for the Astros. Peña has provided similar production at a fraction of the cost.
Even with this evidence, the Twins could talk themselves into committing to Correa long-term. Lewis has proven that he’s capable of playing multiple positions. Minnesota only has $87 million on payroll next season, so it’s not like they can’t afford to bring him back. Still, that’s where things get messy. While Lewis has the tools to be a super-sub, that’s not where the Twins want him to be long-term. Sunday’s game showed how that plan could go wrong when Lewis crashed into the center-field wall and suffered a bone bruise.
That play may be a freak accident, but Lewis shouldn’t be in center field, to begin with. The Twins already have Byron Buxton on a seven-year contract, and Gilberto Celestino and Nick Gordon have proven adequate defensively. And Max Kepler and Trevor Larnach have locked up the corner outfield spots.
The Twins could have Lewis play third base, but even that is flawed with Austin Martin making his way through the minors. It creates a situation where Lewis doesn’t maximize his potential, and Minnesota puts its resources into a position that doesn’t need them.
Putting Lewis at third also handcuffs what the Twins can do in the offseason. By letting Correa walk, Minnesota can use that money to bolster their starting rotation. While the Twins haven’t been keen on long-term free-agent contracts, they could lure one of the top pitchers in next year’s class with a deal similar to what Correa signed last spring.
The Astros realized this and paid Justin Verlander $20 million instead of caving into Correa’s demands. Verlander looks like the better investment, going 6-2 with a 2.03 ERA to become Houston’s unquestioned ace.
In other words, it’s more cost-effective to throw a ton of money at Jacob deGrom or Aaron Nola next winter than it would be to bring Correa back at his current price point. It’s even more cost-effective when you consider Correa is likely seeking the same type of 10-year deal that Corey Seager got from the Texas Rangers last offseason.
Even if Correa exercises the first of two option years, it will limit what the Twins could do. They’d be left with a starting rotation that has been held together with cheap veterans and young prospects.
There are worse things in the world than Correa returning to the Twins. But from a pure business standpoint, bringing him back doesn’t make a lot of sense.
