Some fans may not be in the right headspace to hear it, but Chris Archer has been exactly what the Minnesota Twins envisioned he would be when they signed him in March. The club undoubtedly wanted a veteran hurler to provide value as a fifth starter, and they would do their part to limit his exposure to the scenarios where he has been hit hardest throughout his career.
It’s fair to criticize that strategy, but condemnation of Archer himself is unwarranted. He’s provided the exact type of performance that he was designed to, even if it feels underwhelming. Archer has averaged just over four innings per start with a 4.02 ERA, 7.8 strikeouts, and a career-high 4.3 walks per nine innings. The club knew what they were getting into with the former ace, and he’s lived up to his end of the bargain. He may have even slightly exceeded expectations based on his overall health and availability this season.
But what if the Twins had gone with a different veteran in their pursuit of a value play at the back end of their rotation? Around the time that the club agreed to terms with Archer, they were rumored to be nearing an agreement with Johnny Cueto, another one-time ace. Instead, Minnesota opted to go with the pitcher they deemed ready for the beginning of the season — Cueto would’ve required some time to ramp up to full strength. So the Twins went with Archer, and the Chicago White Sox signed Cueto. Since then, Archer has met reasonable expectations, but Cueto has far exceeded them.
As nice as it can be to have a proposition go as planned, as it did with Archer, what would it have been like to have the strategy exceed expectations?
It’s hard to say whether Cueto would have the same success with the Twins as he has had with the Pale Hose, but he has been an absolute monster in 2022. Since making his White Sox debut on May 16, the crafty veteran has a 2.58 ERA in 118⅔ innings pitched. He’s made 17 starts, averaging just about seven innings per appearance. That feels like a completely different ballgame than the Twins have been playing with their starters. Therefore, it should be no surprise that Cueto is getting dramatically different results. So what has made him so effective this year in his age-36 season?
People may know Cueto from his iconic ability to mix up his delivery. Sometimes that means holding it extra long to catch opponents off-balance. Other times it means mixing in a quick pitch for the same reason. Not only does it give him an advantage within a single at-bat, but it has also shown to be beneficial throughout a game. If the batter has to prepare not only for each pitch in Cueto’s repertoire but also how he delivers each pitch, it makes their job that much harder.
It has been noted ad nauseam that the Twins tend to pull starting pitchers before they can get too deep into an opposing lineup for a third time. That isn’t unique to the club. It’s become a leaguewide trend. However, Cueto’s ability to give varied looks in his delivery can help to counterbalance that susceptibility when facing a lineup multiple times in a game. The proof is in the pudding. More than 30% of Cueto’s innings pitched this year have come while facing the opposing lineup for a third or even fourth time.
On the other hand, Archer has only gotten five outs all year when facing a lineup for a third time. Again, that’s by design, not due to some unexpected development or overreaching on manager Rocco Baldelli‘s part. If Archer was on another team, it’s likely that they would manage him the same way — or they would let him walk the plank until he fell off. He has a palatable, if unexciting, 4.02 ERA because of how the Twins have managed him.
The club took a seat at the blackjack table, put a reasonable bet down, pushed with the dealer, and got their chips back. It doesn’t mean they lost the hand. But the White Sox sat down next to them and got 21 right off the draw. It’s hard to avoid being jealous, even if the Twins didn’t lose anything, per se.
Looking back, the Archer deal is one that the club would probably do again. Better yet, it’s one that they probably will do again. The current front office has shown a hesitancy, or at least an inability to land big fish on the starting pitching market. But Cueto’s success shows that not all value deals are created equal. The important lesson is that they keep going back to the table while they still have a few chips in their pocket.
