The Green Bay Packers have never been aggressive in the trade market or free agency. Since Ted Thompson was the general manager, the team has been philosophically inclined to build through the draft and avoid trades. Brian Gutekunst tends to be more willing to explore other avenues. Still, the difference isn’t that big — especially in relation to his counterparts, because general managers around the league are moving towards aggressiveness each year, as proved by the record number of 10 trades at the deadline this season.
The Packers were not necessarily wrong by declining to acquire any new players. After all, the 2022 version of the roster looks bad, and it might not be wise to use future draft capital to make an all-in move in this circumstance. However, in this case, one could argue that the right approach would be to trade away some pieces and think about the future. That didn’t happen, either.
The perception is that the Packers gave Aaron Rodgers another shot, even if every other move indicated they were moving on. And the shot hasn’t panned out. The defense is not as good as they hoped it would be, and the offense is a bunch of young guys trying to learn how to play in the NFL. Why would they keep Rodgers in this scenario? It looks like it won’t be for long, and it wouldn’t be surprising if Rodgers goes to another team in 2023.
“I wake up in the morning thinking about this,” Rodgers said recently. “I go to bed at night dreaming about what plays I can make up to piss Matt [LaFleur] off. This has been my love since I was five years old, and still love waking up every day knowing I’m coming into 1265 [Lombardi Avenue].”
It’s obvious Rodgers has a special connection with the Green Bay Packers, but his words are not those of a player who wants to retire soon. Does it make sense for him to go through a rebuild? If he wants to keep playing and wants to compete for his second ring, the easiest path is to ask for a trade to a contender.
The Packers are not that sure they are a competitive team to the point where they were willing to spend. But they didn’t become sellers at the trade deadline either, probably because they still think they might compete in a weakened NFC.
But there’s another potential reason. If they end up trading Rodgers, they’ll get substantial future capital anyway.
Ramifications of a possible trade
When the Packers gave Rodgers a 3-year, $150 million extension in the offseason, the contract promised security for both sides. The quarterback had a lot of guaranteed money, and Green Bay had the flexibility to keep Rodgers or even trade him in the future.
Rodgers’ cap hit in 2023 is projected to be $31.6 million. If he is traded before June, the dead money would be $40.3 million, which is not a big difference. It’s undoubtedly one the Packers would be willing to swallow if they rebuild. The move would free up $40.7 million of cap space in 2024, $59.3 million in 2025, and $53.4 million in 2026.
Rodgers will have value on the trade market. Even if it’s not as high as it would have been last offseason, he is still a good quarterback with an absurd ceiling. He can be great again with the proper surroundings.
Rodgers’ cap hit for an acquiring team in 2023 would be just $15.8 million. It may be even less if the team opts to restructure his deal and move some money to the future. That would allow the Packers to get a good value in return, maybe first- and fourth-round picks, or even more if the competition gets hot.
The Packers might want to keep trying with Rodgers, but he will be 39 in December and 40 next year. He has already said he doesn’t plan to play until 45, as Tom Brady has done. Keeping that direction of roster-building has the potential to hamstring the future even more without a great chance of an immediate payoff.
The window for Aaron Rodgers to win in Green Bay might have been closed. It’s hard to part ways with a future Hall of Famer who put the team in a position to succeed for many years. But the best way to be a winner again is to guarantee extra capital and secure a strong roster moving forward — be it with Jordan Love or with the moves needed to acquire another option.
