The Green Bay Packers fell to 3-2 after losing to the New York Giants in London. But if not for some key injuries on the opposing teams, the Packers could very well be 1-4. The passing offense is underwhelming, the coaching staff abandons the run when the game gets tough, and the defense is less than the sum of its parts.
However, no problem is bigger than the lack of a roster-building plan that’s in touch with what the current state of the Packers demands. They need to be a team that wins now, in the twilight years of quarterback Aaron Rodgers.
Lack of cohesion between staff and front office
Lack of cohesion is a topic that Green Bay Packers fans are accustomed to discussing. Since 2011, former general manager Ted Thompson has kept his roster-building philosophy of draft and development. It would be acceptable if the coaching staff were ready to follow that plan. However, the Packers’ former defensive coordinator ran a complex system, and several young players never mastered it before leaving.
Casey Hayward and Micah Hyde are players who left and ended up being much better elsewhere. Something different but related is happening right now. In the first round, the Packers drafted an off-ball linebacker and an interior defensive lineman. Even if the positional value isn’t there, the selections could make sense if the Packers were ready to immediately take advantage of what they do well.
But the Packers changed how they play on defense compared to last year, and they got worse. They keep lighter defensive line formations with Dean Lowry, and Devonte Wyatt barely plays. A pure one-gap system also stresses the linebackers in the run game, and that’s not what Quay Walker is good at – nor De’Vondre Campbell, to whom the Packers gave a five-year extension.
It doesn’t look like there is a connection between the players acquired and the plan defensive coordinator Joe Barry wants to follow. It’s also clear when the Packers’ top two cornerbacks, Jaire Alexander and Eric Stokes, are better suited to play man coverage. And safety Darnell Savage is better nearer the line of scrimmage, both aspects that Barry doesn’t prioritize.
Lack of care for positional value
As I wrote right after the draft, the Packers have a unique perception of positional value. But in an era with that much data and analysis, there is a good chance that you are doing something wrong if you do something unique.
The Packers have been forced to use their two running backs because Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon are among their best offensive weapons. The problem is that it’s almost impossible to build an efficient and explosive attack around running backs in 2022.
Green Bay should have used more resources to build a good receiving corps, and that’s not a one-year problem. The entire NFL world has screamed for the Packers to invest in wide receivers for at least three years.
Prioritizing the wrong unit
The Packers have made 18 first-round draft picks since selecting Aaron Rodgers in 2005. There were 15 defensive players, plus two offensive tackles and quarterback Jordan Love. There were also multiple other high- and medium-level draft picks invested in defense. Most of the expensive free agents were defenders too.
In the 2019 free-agency spending spree, the Packers signed three defenders (Za’Darius Smith, Preston Smith, Adrian Amos) and just one offensive player (offensive lineman Billy Turner). The idea was always that a good defense would enable the Packers to have a balanced team because Aaron Rodgers would elevate lesser offensive talent.
But that’s not how the NFL works. The Packers should have invested more in offensive talent and supporting Rodgers with good players on his side of the ball. Defense is much less sustainable and predictable, and the Packers have never had a solid unit for more than parts of seasons since the Super Bowl title.
Disregard for how the NFL works since 2011
Under Dom Capers, the Packers had a good defense in 2009 and 2010. However, the league has dramatically changed since the inception of the 2011 CBA. With the scaled rookie contracts, there was a considerable emphasis on getting production early because that’s when the players are cheap.
The Packers like to draft some longer-term projects. And sometimes they pay off. Rashan Gary is an excellent example of that. But sometimes they don’t, like Damarious Randall or — at least so far — Jordan Love.
The problem is that even when they work, a good chunk of their rookie deals are frittered away. The Packers need to be willing to use rookies earlier. In the current NFL, teams must draft to maximize the value in the first four years. Still, the Packers haven’t had that perception.
Middle-of-the-road roster-building approach
When there was no certainty about Rodgers’ future in February, it was reasonable to wish for him to come back and for the Packers to go all-in. An argument could also be made that the Packers should have traded Rodgers and Davante Adams and then used the extra picks to rebuild around Love (or get his replacement after one year if needed).
However, the Packers opted for a middle-of-the-road approach. They extended Rodgers but didn’t make all-in moves. It was a conservative modus operandi, showing general manager Brian Gutekunst wanted to be competitive now and moving forward, but without maximizing any of the windows. Now, the Packers don’t look like a great roster, nor do they have guarantees the team will be good in the future without Rodgers.
The Packers are generally well-run and one of the most successful franchises of the last three decades. However, these important details have diminished their ability to be truly great more frequently.
