After signing a massive 4-year, $200 million extension with the Green Bay Packers and Aaron Rodgers, it appears that Jordan Love’s time with the Packers is over. So what is Love’s trade value? Could the Packers get their first-round pick back? Let’s look at how the NFL marketplace would value him.
With such an underwhelming quarterback draft class, teams may be hesitant to draft a franchise signal-caller this year. Many experts feel that Kenny Pickett (Pitt) is the top QB draft prospect. However, his hands were measured at 8.5”. No quarterback with a hand size of 8.5” or below has entered the NFL in the past five years. Michael Vick was the most recent successful quarterback with hands that size.
The Washington Commanders, Indianapolis Colts, Denver Broncos, Carolina Panthers, New Orleans Saints, and Pittsburgh Steelers are looking for a veteran QB. With some big names like Jimmy Garoppolo, Carson Wentz, and Mitchell Trubisky available, teams are overvaluing quarterbacks with any potential. Therefore, there are a lot of teams who may have significant interest in Love.
In February, NFL insider Benjamin Allbright reported that the entire league seems to be aware that the Packers don’t believe in Love. That doesn’t help Green Bay’s case if they want to trade Love. Allbright believes that the best return they would get is a fourth-round pick.
Unfortunately, teams don’t have a lot of game film to go on if they want to trade with the Packers. At this time, there isn’t a trade we can go off of to see what Love would likely be worth. We saw Sam Darnold get traded for a 2021 sixth and 2022 second-round pick last season. But Carolina was justified in thinking Darnold may play to his potential away from Adam Gase’s New York Jets. Even in an adverse situation, we saw glimpses of star qualities in Darnold. But we can’t say the same with Love because he hasn’t played very often.
Washington GM Martin Mayhew has told the press that they have contacted every team inquiring about possible quarterbacks to trade for and the cost of those players. John Kiem of ESPN reported that an inside report said the team has inquired about 42 quarterbacks across the league. That included Patrick Mahomes from the Kansas City Chiefs, probably the player who is least likely to be traded in the NFL. If nothing else, we learned how desperate the Commanders are.
In all likelihood, Love was among the 42 quarterbacks on Washington’s list. If the Commanders are approaching draft day and still haven’t found a starting quarterback, they may get desperate and pay a premium for Love. Because of his short resumé, an underwhelming loss to the Chiefs, Washington is unlikely to give up a second-round pick. The best estimate for a pre-draft trade would include a third-round pick and a sixth-round pick.
During the draft, the Saints had shown considerable interest in Love in 2020, considering him to be Drew Brees’ potential successor. New Orleans had a virtual meeting where they expressed optimism about their chances of drafting him. Plus, Tayson Hill is not the long-term answer for them. The Saints are picking 18th in the first round and will likely still land a top prospect. New Orleans loves to run run-pass options (RPOs), so Love seems to be a great fit for them schematically.
Trading for Love also looks better financially than re-signing Jameis Winston or trading for a quarterback with a larger contract like Jimmy Garoppolo or Carson Wentz. This year, the Saints have an extra third-round pick from the Houston Texans in a trade for cornerback Bradley Roby. So a 2022 third-round pick and a 2023 fourth-round pick would be a reasonable return.
The Steelers are the last of the three most likely teams I believe could make a play for Love. Mike Tomlin spoke earlier this season about the value of a mobile quarterback. Maybe he would be interested in bringing Love into the quarterback battle in Pittsburgh. The Steelers have made it clear that there will be a three-quarterback battle in spring training between Mason Rudolph, Dwayne Haskins, and another signal-caller. I could see Tomlin appreciating Love’s upside and pushing the Steelers to trade for him. Realistically, I’d see the Steelers giving at most a third-round pick for Love as well as a 2023 late-round pick.
So with such a short and underwhelming resumé, it doesn’t look promising that the Packers can get close to the return investment on the 2020 first-round draft pick. If Love had played more in 2021, they could have boosted his trade stock. But in all reality, his best trade value could be now. With such a lackluster market for quarterbacks in the draft, one of these teams will probably pull the trigger on a trade for Jordan Love.
