What a difference a year makes. Last season the Pack opened at a neutral site, with a ton of Green Bay fans in the stands. Now, 2022 kicks off in the most hostile environment the team will deal with all season (followed closely by a drunken Buffalo Bills fanbase on a Sunday night in late October).
Let’s hope the results are a bit different. The Pack’s six-game Week 1 winning streak didn’t just end last year; it was obliterated in a head-scratching performance that was largely forgotten as the team marched to the top seed in the NFC.
So they head into 2022 as a trendy Super Bowl pick led by a defense that has the potential to be elite and an offense that is likely to get better as the season progresses but brings a lot of questions to the table leading up to the opener. And that’s what makes this matchup so interesting. As familiar as these foes are, it’s been a long time since we prepared for a Border Battle with this many uncertainties on both sides.
We know that the Minnesota Vikings are starting over in the front office and on the sidelines, but they chose to keep their veteran core intact to see if a 21st-century analytics-driven approach can lead them into the postseason. New systems have been installed on both sides of the ball, yet the starters never sniffed the field in the preseason. How ready are they to jump into a showdown with the Pack?
However they look on Sunday, the Vikings will likely get better and more comfortable as the season goes along. The same goes for the Pack on offense, where there are more question marks leading into the season than at any point in the Favre-Rodgers eras. We know Aaron Rodgers is ready to defend his back-to-back MVPs and to prove that he can still be in that conversation without an elite No. 1 receiver on the roster. We know the two-headed running attack is probably the best in the league this side of Cleveland and that they will also both be counted on heavily in the passing game.
What we don’t know is the status of the three key starters coming off ACL injuries and their availability for Sunday. All three have practiced all week, but there’s no guarantee any of them will be cleared to play in Week 1. Obviously, the entire complexion of this offense changes if David Bakhtiari, Elgton Jenkins, and Robert Tonyan are out there. I’m skeptical that any of them will play this week, but the Pack can still get the job done without them in the short run.
It also feels more and more likely that Allen Lazard will miss the game since he has yet to practice after someone reportedly stepped on his ankle last week. That’s another blow to a passing attack that dearly needs a reliable third-down and red-zone target. If Lazard and Tonyan are out, Rodgers will have to rely on Sammy Watkins and Randall Cobb and hope that the rookies (likely Doubs) are up to the challenge right out of the gate. Jones may catch 8-10 balls out of the backfield.
If it is indeed Yosh Nijman and Royce Newman at the tackles, look for Marcedes Lewis to provide some help, primarily on the right side. And look for the Vikes to employ former Packer Za’Darius Smith all over the place as he attempts to exact some self-appointed revenge. Earlier this week, he got everyone’s attention with his whiny, needy monologue.
It seems Smith didn’t feel the love as 2022 ended. It probably started brewing when he wasn’t named a captain last year and when the team chose not to give him a new deal after his first two monster seasons. Then the back injury assured he’d be a cap casualty. Smith’s spin on his ’21 experience in Green Bay rings a little hollow. You just know he wishes things had worked out differently. He was fantastic in his two seasons in Green Bay and helped set this unit on a new course. But now he is the enemy.
So Smith joins Danielle Hunter in bringing this new-look Vikings defense a pair of bookend pass rushers who can cover up for some serious deficiencies in the secondary if they can stay on the field. It’s funny, Vikings fans are trumpeting the potential of their defense, which is led by former Packers coaches Mike Pettine, Ed Donatell, and Mike Smith.
It would be great to see the Pack’s starting tackles out there. But just tell me that they’ll be out there for the rematch on Jan. 1, and I’ll be fine with them watching this one in street clothes.
The marquee matchup on Sunday is the Vikes’ celebrated offensive playmakers against the Pack’s emerging defense, which returns 10 starters and adds No. 1 pick Quay Walker right in the middle.
Question No. 1: Will Jaire Alexander shadow Justin Jefferson all over the field?
Question No. 2: Can the middling interior of the Vikes’ offensive line handle Kenny Clark and Jarran Reed, with DeVondre Campbell and Walker right behind them?
Question No. 3: Will the Pack’s athletic front seven finally be able to contain Dalvin Cook and make sure Irv Smith Jr. and Adam Thielen don’t do damage in the middle of the field?
The Pack’s defense shined throughout training camp, and I think that continues in Week 1. Barring turnovers and shaky special teams play (more on that in a moment), I think the Purple will be hard-pressed to score 20 points.
But where my confidence ebbs is when it comes to special teams. Nothing we saw in the preseason made us feel like Rich Bisaccia has come in and solved all the problems. Coverage units struggled. The return game struggled. Now they’ll have a lot of different guys on those units in the regular season, starting with gunner Rudy Ford, a special teams ace cut by the Jacksonville Jaguars. And we’re told that some starters will get some special teams run, but there will always be concern until these units rise from disaster to competence.
Mason Crosby missed the entire offseason, but he will be out there on Sunday with new long snapper Jack Coco and new punter (and longtime Chicago Bear) Pat O’Donnell holding. Let’s hope that operation is less of an adventure this season. And let’s see if Amari Rodgers is ready to be a serviceable return guy (and potential gadget guy in the offense).
Despite the Pack’s Super Bowl aspirations, this is a more important game for the Vikings. They need to win this game if they’re serious about contending in the North. And with a primetime game in Philly looming in Week 2, a loss on Sunday could portend an 0-2 start.
With both teams looking to knock off the rust, I think the offenses are slow out of the gate. It feels like a low-scoring affair, with the Pack making one more play and finding a way to make an opening statement: that, despite missing some key parts on offense, this team is deep enough and experienced enough to handle its divisional business. They’ll make it three wins in the last four visits to US Bank Stadium, giving them a winning record (31-30) in games played in Minnesota.
Packers 20 Vikings 16
