Yes, Green Bay Packers fans have been spoiled over the past couple of decades. Not with Super Bowls, but with a consistent contender. Due mainly to the perfect transition from Brett Favre to Aaron Rodgers about 14 years ago, they haven’t had to worry about rebuilding, finding the face of the franchise, and conquering the NFC North. But after a 3-6 start has them markedly low in the playoff hunt, particularly relative to expectations, someone will probably have to lose their job if things do not turn around.
General manager Brian Gutekunst has been a popular target for fans and media. The Adams trade created a desperate need, and it was Gutekunst’s job to recoup his 1,500-plus yards of production in the draft, the trade market, and free agency. After starting 3-5, he again failed to add to Green Bay’s offensive weaponry. Criticism ensued, and reports emerged talking about how hard the Packers had tried, targeting Jerry Jeudy, D.J. Moore, Chase Claypool, and Darren Waller. It’s hard to be satisfied with mere effort, and it’s hard to envision that the man who willingly took a team with top-five Super Bowl odds into the season with Allen Lazard and a fourth-round rookie as its top wideouts wouldn’t be on the hot seat to at least some extent.
Defensive coordinator Joe Barry shouldn’t be spared either, and he sure as hell hasn’t been. This defense was supposed to be dominant. It’s part of why people didn’t write Green Bay off when they failed to pick up an offensive weapon. But Barry’s unit has not played near the level one would expect, given the individual talent it’s composed of.
But one person at the center of it all hasn’t been trending nearly as high on Twitter during some of these pathetic losses. That’s head coach Matt LaFleur because the more you think about it, the harder it is to gauge his level of culpability here.
LaFleur was hired in 2019 after commanding the 27th-ranked Tennessee Titans offense in 2018. The Packers were the only team to interview him for their head coaching vacancy, and the only thing he wasn’t able to do was win playoff games in his first three seasons. He went 39-10 in those regular seasons, scoring plenty of points along the way. Does that level of regular-season success make him special? Incredibly hard to say because it’s hard to say who wouldn’t be able to score points with a Rodgers-Adams duo, flanked by Aaron Jones and a solid offensive line.
Coming into the season, Gutekunst’s whiffs taught us a lot about LaFleur’s quality as a coach. Can he move the ball without that same level of star power? Can his concepts continue to work without the league’s best receiver running them? So far, he hasn’t moved the ball. In fact, this Packers’ offense has been by far the most pathetic one we’ve ever seen Rodgers operate. It’s been so shocking that, unfortunately, I don’t think I can fully declare that this season’s failures have exposed LaFleur as a bad or even overrated coach.
Halfway through his fourth year, the complete picture of LaFleur as an offensive-minded head coach is still not clear. He’s done great with almost all the personnel he could want but struggled to win big games in January, and he’s done horribly with none of the personnel he needs outside of Rodgers and Jones. One thing he hasn’t done in either case is elevate offensive production above the talent of his personnel. It’s true this year, it was the case in Tennessee, and the same goes for 2019-21 when Rodgers and Adams played like Rodgers and Adams. The best coaches in this league can outperform expectations by out-coaching other teams. The Packers should evaluate different pathways if LaFleur cannot reach that level. After all, the story of the last decade has been “close but no cigar.”
Nathaniel Hackett’s similarly disastrous first season as head coach of the Denver Broncos is an interesting comparison to make here. One of the more ridiculous aspects of NFL coaching searches is that Hackett got all these interviews for being the offensive coordinator of an offense with Rodgers, Jones, Davante Adams, and a good front that ran according to LaFleur’s system and play-calling. Hackett was said to contribute primarily to game-planning and was loved by pretty much everyone in the building. Yet, he has been abysmal in what will likely be his only season in Denver, with game management gaffes to go along with an anemic offense.
When all is set and done, the primary story of this season in the media will be that the Packers didn’t put together the team that they clearly should have. Their draft-and-develop approach is proven to be successful when executed correctly. Still, the margin for error is low, and, crucially, its weakness is that it lacks the urgency to compete with “all-in” teams throughout the conference. The offseason will center on Rodgers, whether he decides to stick it out, retire, or ask to be traded — that and the Packers’ continuing quest to get a good receiver.
I think it’s fair to say that to keep his job, Gutekunst must prove he is capable of surrounding Rodgers with offensive weapons alongside this defense that should be good moving forward. Making “weapons” plural feels like I’m living in fantasy land, but it’s what needs to happen. LaFleur must produce when given this group, which should be somewhere in the considerable gap between what they have this year and what they had in 2021. Otherwise, the team should move on from him too.
LaFleur is all but certain to lead this team into 2023, and Gutekunst probably won’t be fired, either. But don’t let all the personnel issues and likely reshuffling distract from the fact that we lack incontrovertible evidence that LaFleur is the guy, whether he’s culpable for the disaster at hand or not.
