It’s official: Aaron Rodgers will return to the Green Bay Packers for an unprecedented 18th year. That’s good news for Packers fans, Packers players, Packers coaches, three-quarters of the AFC West, and my personal happiness. But it’s bad news for Detroit Lions, Chicago Bears, and Minnesota Vikings, Denver Broncos fans (who will have to settle for Russell Wilson), future cap casualties, haters, and, unfortunately, Jordan Love.
Details of a future Rodgers deal aren’t official, but with initial reports suggesting a 4-year $200 million deal (chump change IMO), Love’s time as the heir apparent is over. Entering his third season, Love’s rookie deal will surely be over by the time the Rodgers era comes to an end. With the returning MVP back on a long-term contract, what does Love’s future look like?
A massive deal like Rodgers’ is projected to be means there is no quarterback controversy. The back-to-back MVP quarterback is the starter in Green Bay. The team can try to trade Love to a QB-needy team and recoup some of their lost capital, or they can keep Love around as a high-quality backup should Rodgers be injured. Public opinion is split on what to do with the young QB.
One on hand, the Packers spent a good chunk of draft capital on Love, and the coaching staff still believes in his potential. Even if he won’t be the long-term starter, having a young quarterback with high upside who knows the offense isn’t the worst thing in the world.
Trading Jordan Love saves the Packers almost nothing on the cap. His cap hits are friendly this year and next year. Why not try to keep your developing first-round pick behind a soon-to-be 39-year-old QB?
I get Love might not want to stay.
But every team needs a backup.
— Zach Kruse (@zachkruse2) March 8, 2022
Aaron Rodgers spent most of 2017 on IR and was hobbled for most of 2018. Injuries happen, and having a contingency plan is good. With Rodgers back in the fold, paying an experienced veteran like Case Keenum isn’t financially viable. Having a relatively cheap, young player makes far more sense as an insurance policy. While Love doesn’t have a win under his belt, he outplayed Patrick Mahomes in the loss to Kansas City. He could absolutely win a few games if needed.
On the other hand, paying Rodgers a zillion dollars means less money to spend elsewhere. If the Packers lose Rodgers for a significant amount of time, the Packers probably aren’t winning much of anything. In that case, rolling with Kurt Benkert as QB2 makes about as much sense as anything else.
Of course, Green Bay has no incentive to rush Love out of the building. He’s tied to the team for at least two more years, and they even have a fifth-year option to work with. Gutekunst should only consider a trade if the deal is right.
But if there was ever a year to trade a young quarterback with starting potential, it’s 2022. The quarterback free-agent market isn’t particularly enticing. Rodgers was the top QB thought to be available, and he’s not going anywhere. Russell Wilson is on his way to Denver. Beyond that, you’ve got Carson Wentz? Jimmy Garoppolo? Kirk Cousins, maybe? Mitch Trubisky? No thanks.
The draft isn’t much more appealing. There isn’t a consensus top rookie out there, and most of the biggest talents are considered projects. It’s entirely possible nobody takes a QB in the first seven picks.
Don’t forget Josh Rosen had one of the all-time worst rookie seasons we’ve seen statistically and he got dealt for a 2+5.
There are some teams out there desperate for a QB in a draft with no really good ones. Love is only 7 months older than Malik Willis the “upside” guy.
— Peter Bukowski (@Peter_Bukowski) March 8, 2022
Love is only a few months older than Matt Corral and Malik Willis, and he’s actually younger than Kenny Pickett. A 23-year-old prospect with two years of experience in one of the league’s best offenses could be much more attractive than rolling the dice on a developmental rookie. Love garnered a lot of interest before landing in Green Bay, and some of those teams still need a long-term option under center.
The #Packers have no choice but to trade Jordan Love now. The draft isn’t strong at the QB position and the free agent market is even worse, so rather than play out the final two years, they should deal him right now. https://t.co/jzvOFvgQRw
— Tom Silverstein (@TomSilverstein) March 8, 2022
Our own Aaron Feidt examined potential landing spots for Love and what the price might be. The buzz around Love is polarizing, with insider Benjamin Allbright reporting the league is aware the Packers don’t believe in Love, and the team wouldn’t receive much in return for their young quarterback.
However, in light of Rodgers’ return, Senior Bowl executive director Jim Nagy revealed most NFL scouts he spoke with thought Love could garner a second-round pick by teams that value his upside and potential. If that’s the case, the Packers should absolutely be open to dealing Love.
Just hit up a few NFL scouts about potential asking price for Jordan Love. Most think Packers could get a 2nd round pick for him. Feeling is talent & upside worth that roll of dice.
— Jim Nagy (@JimNagy_SB) March 8, 2022
For the record, releasing Love is a third option, but it makes little sense. The cap relief from releasing Love isn’t overly necessary, Green Bay would get nothing in return for their initial investment, and Rodgers and Love appear to have a good working relationship. A release would be a massive waste.
Whatever is next for Love, there is no rush to make something happen. Love deserves a shot to fight for a starting spot somewhere, but the Packers have no reason to shop their young backup actively. Love may not ever have as much trade value as he does now in an unappealing quarterback market, but Gutekunst should only make it happen for the right price. Otherwise, having cheap, quality insurance available isn’t so bad.
