The Green Bay Packers’ win on Sunday over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers didn’t feel good. I mean, winning should feel good. It did feel good. But it didn’t feel good, you know?
Green Bay’s putrid offensive showing after the first two drives — no points on the following nine drives — was one thing. But the defense completely folding over after an otherwise masterful performance was more concerning. The Packers held Tom Brady‘s Bucs to six points and 196 total yards before their final 13-play, 89-yard waltz down the field to earn the opportunity to tie the game. Tampa Bay was allowed to do this because of the shift to a prevent defense. It was a complete regression from a gameplan that saw defensive coordinator Joe Barry’s defense rack up two fumble recoveries, three sacks, and a paltry 2-11 conversion rate on third downs.
It’s a tale as old as time. Falling into the prevent defense is the safe play. The NFL is notorious for being conservative in more ways than one, and the prevent defense at the end of games is one of the most emblematic displays of that. Conceptually, it’s simple: You drop most of the guys into coverage and create a blanket around the sidelines and the end of the field. Therefore, you keep the pass-catchers down in play to keep the clock ticking.
This fallout is that it completely gives up the middle of the field. Receivers exponentially increase any presupposed short-yardage allowances with any open-field skills. This isn’t even considering the number of times players break enough tackles to get out of bounds and stop the clock. Teams that struggle to tackle or properly cover their zones are at risk of giving up easy drives downfield with little to no resistance. That allowed Brady to march down the field with zero impediments for the first time all game on Tampa’s last drive.
Situationally, it didn’t even make much sense for the Packers to go to the prevent that early last week. When Tampa Bay got the ball back, there were still over three minutes left in the fourth quarter. At the rate the defense was playing, it would be fair to assume they would have been able to halt the depleted Buccaneers and get the ball back to close out the game. That was not the case, and the end of the game was perhaps nervier than it needed to be.
So, why do coordinators like Barry keep going to this prevent defense? Historical precedent.
The phrase ” This is how we’ve always done things ” is never more true in another professional sports league than the NFL. It’s the easy answer to the difficult question: What should we do here? John Madden said it himself: “All a prevent defense does is prevent you from winning.” Rather than conjure a unique strategy, the prevent defense acts as an opt-out of any forward-thinking concepts. It is a stagnant and antiquated play call that feeble coaches use to abstain from responsibility or blame.
Barry is guilty of this. It nearly cost the Packers the win. Despite the pathetic offensive showing, there was no reason the game should have gotten that close. With one of the most talent-heavy defensive rosters at his disposal, Barry eluded responsibility in the hopes that Tom Brady, of all people, would misplace a throw or two en route to an easy victory.
It highlights the notion that coordinators play a larger role than people think. A group of players can be as talented as they like, but if they are being misused, the sum will always be lesser than the parts. Look no further than the current iterations of the Denver Broncos and the United States Men’s National Team to see examples of grossly mismanaged squads that are underperforming. Green Bay may be 2-1, but this team seems like a far cry from the powerhouse of the last two seasons.
Playing the prevent defense also fails to consider the high pace and efficiency that most modern offenses run at these days. According to Pro Football Reference, since the NFL started tracking average plays-per-drive in 1998, teams were running an average of 6.04 plays per drive in 2021, up from 5.4 in 1998. Yards per play is also up to 5.4 from 5.0, and the total number of drives per game is actually down to 10.8 from 11.2. That tells us that teams are in the routine of taking more chunk plays on their drives while also running time off the clock. Playing in the prevent defense allows these teams to operate their offenses in their comfort zone. In a league that already awards offensive prowess over defensive lockdowns, it’s even more baffling that teams still go into this prevent to allow oppositional teams to get into a rhythm.
If the Packers franchise hopes to return to its championship aspirations, Barry needs to lean into the talents of his players and stop calling the end of games like it’s 1995. Players are more athletically gifted now than ever, and aggressive play-calling stands to go a long way in the developmental morale of this young team. Nail-biters won’t cut it anymore. This team needs to win definitively to gain momentum for the stretch run. Conservative play-calling won’t get the job done.
