Whoa, what just happened?
You decided to visit the Packers page at zonecoverage.com, or maybe you were heading to theheadcheese.com (thank you for that, by the way), and suddenly you find yourself at a newly branded “Head Cheese” Packers page at zonecoverage.com.
I’m excited to announce that I’m moving my blog to the Zone Coverage network, bringing my blog to their Packer page, and joining their team that covers the Green and Gold.
What does that mean for you? Not much, except you can now find my Packers takes here, along with great daily content from fantastic Packers writers all week long.
For those of you who have no clue who I am, I’m a Milwaukee native who’s lived in the Twin Cities since ’94, and I host “Packer Preview” on KFAN (and iHeart Radio) during the NFL season. This is my 27th year, and it remains the only show airing on a rival’s flagship station. Just ask Peter King…he confirmed that when I ran into him at a Starbucks in downtown Chicago on the morning of the 2010 NFC title game, so I’m running with it.
You can also hear me on most Mondays during the season, joining the Fan’s Paul Allen for our weekly “Border Battle.” My Saturday morning show on KFAN, “In the Zone” with Gophers legend Trent Tucker has been a weekend staple on the Fan since ’95.
Now, down to business. The initial 53-man roster has been announced, so let’s take a look at the decisions that were made, and then I’ll give you my thoughts on the 2022 season. Biggest surprises: WR Juwann Winfree, who Rodgers actively stumped for throughout the preseason, was waived. S Shawn Davis appeared to lock up the No. 3 safety job, but a knee injury cost him his opportunity.
Rookie OT Caleb Jones, whose massive size and quick improvement seemed to make him a lock, but rookies Tom and Walker provide depth at tackle. DT Jack Heflin had a strong camp but is a victim of a deep room. RB Tyler Goodson looked like another great undrafted signing, but the team elected to go deeper in other spots. A majority of these guys could be back on the practice squad and get their chance down the road – it happened to Allen Lazard just a few years ago.
Notable: WR Samori Toure‘s long-term upside gave him the edge over Winfree, and is the seventh receiver on the opening roster. S Micah Abernathy, a late add from the USFL, impressed enough to earn a spot, though I expect the Pack will be scanning the waiver wire for a veteran safety.
So is this the year the Pack finally breaks through? Will Aaron Rodgers finally get his second ring and ride off into the sunset? Or will we see the same movie we’ve seen before: a playoff meltdown? Either way, I think this is Rodgers’ last season. At this time next year, he’ll be off the radar, likely in a peaceful ayahuasca haze on some island no one’s ever heard of.
The wise guys like the Bucs to win the NFC, with the Packers and Rams neck and neck behind them. The Super Bowl window is still open, but there’s no way any of us could fit through it. The salary cap executioner is gonna come calling next year, and there will be casualties (Aaron Jones, for example). The organization has squeezed one more year out of this core.
What makes the lead-up to this season so interesting is that, for the first time in forever, most of the questions around this team involve the offense. How much will that unit miss the leadership of Nathaniel Hackett and Luke Getsy? Will Bakhtiari and Jenkins be ready? Who will step up and replace the targets vacated by Adams and MVS? Will Tonyan be available Week 1?
By contrast, the defense looks poised to take a major step in its second year under Joe Barry. If rookie Quay Walker can step right in and wreak some havoc, the Pack will have the most athletic pair of inside linebackers we’ve seen in years, allowing them to stay in nickel a lot more (and keeping a suspect third safety off the field).
There is also finally depth along the defensive line, which should free up Kenny Clark to be even more lethal. Even if rookie Devonte Wyatt needs time to figure things out, the emergence of Dean Lowry late last season, the addition of Jarran Reed and the development of TJ Slaton gives the team lots of options.
The defense gets stronger as you move backward. Gary and Smith provide a terrific pair of pass rushers, and the Pack has to be in the conversation when you talk about the best secondary in the league.
The question is depth. Like most teams, the Pack is suspect there, in particular in the back seven. As I mentioned, I expect them to add a veteran safety off the waiver wire, and they need one or two of their backup OLBs to step up when they’re called on to spell Smith and Gary.
The other great unknown is to what degree, if any, special teams will improve. The hiring of Rich Bisaccia was supposed to finally address the team’s often overlooked biggest weakness in recent years. But through the preseason, we’ve seen little to boost our confidence. Coverage units still look lost, the returners scare absolutely no one, and Mason Crosby has yet to suit up, though he was activated from the PUP list on Tuesday and appears on track to be back to start the season.
The notion that the Pack will rely on starters more than in the past offers some hope but will also cause us to hold our breath after every play to make sure that everyone has gotten up.
I’m not looking or expecting excellence on special teams; if they can rise up to competence the Pack will be miles ahead of last year in that regard.
Back to the offense: Logic tells us it will get better as the season goes along. If the three key guys returning from ACL injuries are all looking like their old selves by Halloween, the offense will be on track to perform as we’ve come to expect. By then, Rodgers should have a good feel for whom he can depend on. The health of Cobb and Watkins will go a long way in determining how quickly the young guys (Watson, Doubs, and even Toure) are needed to contribute. It sure looks like Amari Rodgers is going to be given the chance to be a Swiss army knife in this offense. He slimmed down and appears quicker and much more confident. He could add a nice, much-needed wrinkle as a ball carrier.
I think we can all agree that the offense will run through its elite two-headed running attack and that both Jones and Dillon will be featured prominently in the passing game as well.
Everything will run a lot smoother when Bakhtiari and Jenkins return from injuries (we’re assuming David will be back, right?), and the line can settle in with the only question being where Jenkins plays on the right side. Rookie Zach Tom appears to have placed himself into the conversation – maybe even at right tackle.
Now, for my annual prediction for the ’22 season. I like to break it down into quarters (which is a little trickier now with the 17th game).
First Quarter (Weeks 1-4): The opening quarter features two of the three toughest road tests of the season and a couple of rather soft home games to cushion the potential blows. The opener in Minnesota is the toughest to get a read on. We all remember what happened last year in Week 1, and once again, none of the starters took the field in the preseason, so we have no idea how they’ll play coming out of the gate.
But the Minnesota Vikings are in the same boat and have a new coaching staff and new systems on both sides of the ball freshly installed. My hunch is this will be a low-scoring game with the defenses dominating. I think it comes down to how much the Vikes’ run defense has improved. I think that will be a work in progress and think Jones has a big receiving day. The matchup to watch is Jaire vs. JJ. Will the Pack’s mercurial corner shadow him? The Packers are favored by two, and everyone will be all over the Vikings. That means it will likely go the other way. I say the Pack beats the Vikes, loses to Brady and the Bucs, and opens the season 3-1.
Second Quarter (Weeks 5-9): Five games in this quarter, which opens with Green Bay’s first visit to London and includes just one home game and a three-game road trip. The Pack elected not to take the early bye week after London, so after they dispose of the Giants overseas and the Jets at Lambeau, they’ll be sitting 5-1 when they hit the road for three. I’ll give them a win in Washington, but then back-to-back losses, in Buffalo on a Sunday night, and then a flat follow-up to that epic matchup with a loss in Detroit. The Pack is 6-3 at the approximate halfway point.
Third Quarter (Weeks 10-13): The Pack snaps out of their funk with a win over Sean Payton and the Cowboys. (Okay, Mike McCarthy may still be the head coach in name, but the vultures will be circling). Then it’s a short week, and the Titans come to town, and the Packers aren’t losing a Thursday night home game. They get extra time to prepare for a tough road test in Philly in prime time, but I think the Eagles find a way to get the win. Next up is a visit to Chicago, where Rodgers gets to play the team he owns, maybe for the last time. We know how this story ends. The Packers are 9-4 heading into their late bye week.
Fourth Quarter (Weeks 15-18): Three of these are at Lambeau, and it begins with a Sunday night showdown against the Rams. The Pack are refreshed (the Rams will have played the previous Thursday, so they will be rested as well) and ready to assert their spot in the NFC pecking order – they remain perfect at home. Next up is a tricky Christmas Day game in Miami. I think the Dolphins will be improved and in the thick of the AFC playoff race, and it feels like a tough spot for the Pack after an emotional game against the Rams and with two divisional home games to close. I got Miami here, but Green Bay takes care of the Vikes and Lions to finish the season. Neither of those teams are coming into Lambeau in January and beating the Pack.
So that’s a 12-5 record, which may or may not give them the No. 1 seed. I think we can all agree at this point that we couldn’t care less what seed they get. No. 1 hasn’t done them a lot of favors in the last two years.
All I’m asking for after 18 weeks is that this team is healthier than they were heading into last postseason, that Rodgers and the offense have found a rhythm, that the defense is in the conversation as a top-five unit and that the special teams is not a weekly storyline and liability. If even three of those four line up, then Rodgers and Co. may just emerge from a conference that doesn’t look particularly imposing in 2022.
