Green Bay Packers

Which Direction Will Aaron Rodgers' Age-39 Season Go?

Photo Credit: Jeff Hanisch (USA TODAY Sports)

Aaron Rodgers is back with the Pack(ers). That’s not new news, nor will the ensuing words give a unique and inventive spin on the origins of his “return.” He’s back like he never left because he never left. Moving on.

Often overlooked in the media frenzy that swarms Rodgers news like biblical locusts is the prospect of having an almost-40-year-old playing quarterback for the Green Bay Packers. Yes, Rodgers is the two-time reigning MVP. However, time slows down for no man. Well, one man, and Tom Brady is that man. Father Time is 721-1, and the Sunset Squad Robots come for everyone in the end. It remains to be seen if Rodgers will enjoy such a youthful rejuvenation at the twilight of his career.

Of course, this isn’t to suggest that Rodgers will not be able to perform at a high level this season. There have been plenty of quarterbacks in recent memory that have played well into their late 30s. Brady is the exception to every precedent, of course, but there is evidence that could suggest whether or not these Hall of Fame talents can retain their effectiveness in their late 30s.

Rodgers is 38. The resident homeopathic Sagittarius will turn 39 on Dec. 2. He comes into the 2022-23 season as the longest-tenured Green Bay quarterback in franchise history. His 55,000-plus passing yards and strong chance to have the highest career passer rating of all time eschew Rodgers as a truly generational talent and player. However, the business of the NFL revolves around the notion of: What have you done for me lately? If Rodgers fails to live up to his lofty standards, his newly signed extension could become costly.

Fortunately for Rodgers, plenty of worse 39-year-old quarterbacks have had successful midlife seasons in the NFL.

The most recent example is Brady’s age-39 season, of course, which I am legally obligated to talk about. Brady actually saw a statistical decline due to injury in that 2016 season, though that decline was meaningless. He and the New England Patriots went on to win the Super Bowl over the Atlanta Falcons. Brady posted 3,554 passing yards and 28 touchdowns in 12 games (296 passing yards per game). It is well known that Brady is a savant and takes great care of himself, but even this production was an incredible feat for somebody that old.

Drew Brees had his last good season at 39. Brees threw for 3,992 yards and 32 touchdowns, and the New Orleans Saints went 13-2 in his 15 starts that year. He completed 74.4% of his passes, which led the league in 2018. His major statistical dropoff happened the following season. Brees couldn’t stay healthy the whole year and only played in 11 games.

The decline for many prolific quarterbacks tends to happen around this age in some way. An interesting case would be Peyton Manning’s last season in the NFL (2015), in which he turned 39. Manning played in only 10 games, threw for 2,249 yards, and had a paltry nine touchdowns to 17 interceptions for the Denver Broncos. Denver managed to win the Super Bowl that year over Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers, but that victory was not forged on the back of an aged and otherwise placeholding Manning. He threw for only 141 yards and one interception that game. Manning knew it was time to hang it up, so he did. End of story.

One of the most obvious comparisons would be Brett Favre, but his age-39 season was that one forgettable year with the New York Jets. Of course, Favre turned everything around in that magical 2009 season with the Minnesota Vikings. But his impact fell off a cliff the season after as he battled injuries and the consequences of his poor decision making. His iron-man streak of starts ended, and Favre retired at the ripe old age of 41.

Joe Montana and Dan Marino retired before they even had the chance to turn 39. Ben Roethlisberger had one of the worst seasons of his career at age 39. Meanwhile, Doug Flutie enjoyed a resurgent season in his age-39 year with the San Diego Chargers in 2001. The historical precedent is a mixed bag, but it proves that one needs to judge the player based on how well they take care of themselves and whether or not they are a top-five QB of all time.

Rodgers takes care of himself. He is also the most talented quarterback ever to play football, and he has shown zero signs of slowing down. The writing may have been on the wall with players like Manning, but Rodgers stands to go into the 2022 season looking like the same generational player that Packers fans have grown to love over the years. Rodgers will look more like Brady than he will Manning this year, and Green Bay will reap the benefits as long as they can.

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