I know the Green Bay Packers are all-in after extending Aaron Rodgers. And I know Packers fans will forever remember they traded down when they had the opportunity to select T.J. Watt and ended up with Kevin King and Vince Biegel instead. After all, there is no perfect strategy – it all depends on the execution. But the Packers should trade down in the next draft.
First, it’s important to understand the moment. While some people will argue it’s better to trade up and try to guarantee a better player who could have an immediate impact, recent NFL data and broader history show that teams don’t have great performance while choosing players from the same position. It’s common to see great players drafted behind bad ones from the same position. For instance, Henry Ruggs was drafted before CeeDee Lamb, and both of them and Jalen Reagor were selected with Justin Jefferson still on the board.
The Packers benefitted from that concept when they took Rodgers 23 picks after Alex Smith in 2005. Even when the team selects two or more players of the same position in the same class, the results show that nobody should be over-confident in their ability to scout. Aaron Jones was selected one round later than Jamaal Williams, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling was drafted one round after J’Mon Moore.
PFF’s philosophy indicates that a team shouldn’t trade up unless a quarterback is the target. “Hitting on a quarterback can transform your franchise,” Timo Riske wrote last year. “Hitting on a non-quarterback gives you a good player, but that’s pretty much it.”
So the wisest approach is to have as many picks as possible. Obviously, it’s important to observe a draft capital chart to maintain the value. However, in general, a player you draft five or 10 picks later has a pretty similar chance of hitting compared to any player your general manager fell in love with. And the extra pick is another chance to hit on a depth piece, something essential in an era where rookie-scale contracts are one of the most decisive factors in roster building.
Trading down is especially wise for the Packers in their current state. With so many high-priced star players, such as Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams, David Bakhtiari, Kenny Clark, and Preston Smith – and with the prospect of also paying Jaire Alexander and Elgton Jenkins – the team needs cheap labor to build a balanced roster.
By trading down, a team doubles the financial benefits. First, they have more drafted players, young athletes with a higher chance of success than an undrafted guy. Second, there is a scale to determine rookie salaries — the lower the pick, the lower the total earnings and guarantees.
Although Brian Gutekunst has a strong tendency to trade up, as he has done in every draft since he was promoted to GM, his best draft move so far is a trade down. In 2018, he moved down from 14 to 27 and added a future first-round pick, then traded back up to select Jaire Alexander at No. 18.
In 2019, the Packers used two fourth-round picks to move up from 30 to 21 and select Darnell Savage. While that was a decent pick, they could have selected Deebo Samuel or A.J. Brown with their original spot. He could have taken another safety like Nasir Adderley, Taylor Rapp, or Juan Thornhill while trading down.
When the Packers paid a fourth-rounder to trade up for Jordan Love in 2020, Gutekunst’s argument was that the quarterback was the last player with a first-round grade on his board. But Tee Higgins, Michael Pittman, Antoine Winfield, Chase Claypool, Jaylon Johnson, Trevon Diggs, and Jeremy Chinn were among the players available.
Last offseason, the Packers paid a considerable price because Gutekunst fell in love with Amari Rodgers. The GM paid a fourth-round selection to move up only seven picks in the third round and get the slot receiver. So far, Amari Rodgers hasn’t lived up to expectations, and some receivers drafted later had better rookie seasons – Amon-Ra St. Brown, Nico Collins, and Anthony Schwartz.
While an NFL executive must have sound processes and confidence, he must know everyone in the league has similar results drafting players during a long period of time. Therefore, the more picks you can collect, the bigger your chances of finding a significant number of impact players.
