Time to bounce back from my first non-winning week of the season. When the Baltimore Ravens couldn’t hold on to a 17-point halftime lead against the Buffalo Bills, it dropped me to an unsatisfying 1-1-1 for the week. The good news: Week 5 is upon us, with a new slate of games to seek out some live underdogs. Here are my three faves.
Seahawks +5 at Saints
There are a few factors working in Seattle’s favor here. For one, New Orleans has lost the intimidation factor at home; they’ve only covered twice in their last nine home games. On top of that, the Saints chose not to take their bye following the grueling trip to London.
Only five teams have made that choice, and all five have either been tied or trailed in the fourth quarter in their subsequent game. Shockingly, Seahawks’ QB Geno Smith is PFF’s highest-graded quarterback through four weeks and shouldn’t be overwhelmed by the Saints’ D. I think Seattle keeps it close.
Bears +7½ at Vikings
The same post-London blahs could be in store for the Purple, who typically are pretty tough to beat home. But the Bears tend to give them problems, and they do one thing Minnesota struggles to handle – run the football.
David Montgomery’s likely return, coupled with the more talented Khalil Herbert, will be a handful for the Vikings’ defense. If Chicago is smart, they’ll cut Justin Fields loose with his legs as well. I can see the Bears hanging around and causing Vikes’ fans blood pressure to rise until the closing moments.
Jets +3 ½ vs. Dolphins
Jets fans are still hurt that Tyreek Hill didn’t take their team seriously when he was looking to escape from Kansas, and the secondary will no doubt do all it can to make sure he doesn’t torch them all afternoon.
I’m not sure they’ll succeed, but the Jets’ defense will be up for this divisional challenge. Miami doesn’t lose a ton with Teddy Bridgewater under center, but New York should also get solid play from QB Zach Wilson, now in his second game back from injury. He looked like a different guy in the fourth quarter last week, and Miami will miss CB Byron Jones. The extra half-point could be the difference here.
Last Week: 1-1-1
Season: 8-3-1
