There’s no doubt that the Minnesota Timberwolves have a top-3 frontcourt in the NBA. For years, they struggled to find their guy next to Karl-Anthony Towns. Taj Gibson, Gorgui Dieng, and Robert Covington are all capable players, but the Wolves struggled to find their perfect match.
Then Minnesota made a franchise-altering trade for Rudy Gobert, allowing Towns to play power forward – his natural position. The move looks perfect on paper. The Wolves paired a generational defensive talent paired with a generational offensive talent. What’s not to love?
But Towns and Gobert alone won’t win Minnesota a championship because guard and wing play is the most important it’s ever been. Now more than ever, a loaded frontcourt will carry you deep into the playoffs. With the new superstar duos like Dejounte Murray and Trae Young joining the classic pairings like Steph Curry and Klay Thompson, it’s fair to say the frontcourt is at or near its peak in the league.
The best teams in the league have significantly better backcourts than the Wolves, leaving them in the middle of the pack. Minnesota’s backcourt falls in the 10-12 range, which is sort of strange for a playoff team in today’s game. Even with Anthony Edwards due to break out, he’s still not good enough to make this backcourt elite by himself. And although I’m a firm believer in D’Angelo Russell‘s ability, I don’t think he’s a player that moves the needle enough. Therefore, Minnesota’s backcourt may be their Achilles heel this season.
Minnesota’s backcourt will struggle most on the defensive side of the ball. Even though the Wolves’ backcourt will generate offense, they’ll still be lacking behind playoff-caliber teams. Edwards is a highly talented scorer, and DLo is talented enough to score in droves, even as a pass-first guard. Conversely, Anthony Edwards is an above-average defender at best right now, and Russell has likely hit his peak as a neutral defender.
Put into perspective, the Wolves have an excellent scoring duo in their backcourt. But of the 16 playoff teams last year, only six backcourts averaged more combined points than the Wolves during the regular season. Edwards (21.3) and Russell (18.2) combined for 39 points per game, ranking 7th amongst playoff teams. The Phoenix Suns, Brooklyn Nets, Atlanta Hawks, Dallas Mavericks, Memphis Grizzlies, and Golden State Warriors all ranked higher.
But Minnesota’s backcourt only produced 37 points combined in the playoffs, even with Edwards increasing his scoring average to 25 points per game. t failed to keep pace because of Russell’s playoff struggles, and Minnesota lost in four games.
Even through their struggles in the playoffs, Minnesota’s chief problem wasn’t their backcourt’s offensive production. Was it less than expected? Sure. But the Wolves backcourt wasn’t bad compared to the rest of the playoff teams. The Wolves had the sixth-most prolific scoring volume backcourt in the playoffs, just below the Philadelphia 76ers (39) and above the Atlanta Hawks (36).
It wasn’t really the offense that killed them; it was their defense. Ja Morant and Desmond Bane scored 45 points per game against the Wolves in the playoffs. That’s nearly a seven-point difference every game. Seven points may already seem pretty significant. Still, it’s even more meaningful considering that the average margin of victory was 10 points in the six-game series. Edwards and Russell combined for 24 points in Game 5, the most crucial game of the series. However, they allowed Morant and Bane to drop 55.
Scoring isn’t everything in this league, especially from a pass-first guard like Russell. But the Wolves only combined for 10 assists in the playoffs, which is in the middle of the pack. ussell sets up the offensive efficiently, but he has to improve his own offensive production, especially in the playoffs.
Minnesota’s backcourt can’t get outscored by seven points a game in the playoffs next season. Points per game is a pretty rudimentary stat, which it means it should have fared better for the Wolves. Ant and DLo love getting shots up, and with both of their tendencies to be inefficient at times, a stat that doesn’t factor in efficiency should have been in their favor. nstead, not only did Memphis outscore the Wolves that series, but the underlying numbers tell us they did much more.
- The Grizzlies’ backcourt had a better field goal percentage (43% vs. 39%)
- More combined assists a game (12 to 9)
- And rebounds per game (11 to 6)
Teams like Memphis, Brooklyn, and Dallas can get away with having black-hole defensive guards because they are some of the most prolific scorers in the league. The Wolves do not have that same luxury. ussell will probably never be an elite scoring guard, and Edwards still has time before he becomes one.
The Gobert trade puts a lot of pressure on Ant, but I would argue it puts the most pressure on the backcourt tandem. dwards is one part of it, but Russell is in the final year of a max contract and wants to cash in next season. urthermore, he’s expressed a desire to stay in Minnesota and continue playing with Towns. innesota’s elite frontcourt will drive winning next season. But the backcourt will have to keep pace if they want to win the playoffs.
