We’ve seen the signs start to creep in over the last month. Some old bad habits here, missed rotations there, and a lot of familiar bad defense everywhere. While the Minnesota Timberwolves have enjoyed the best offense in the NBA since the calendar flipped to 2022, their once top-10 defense has slowly eroded back into what we’re used to seeing from the last 15 years.
I know, I know, it’s a great time to be a Wolves fan. They’re 13-7 since we left 2021 in the dust, the ninth-best record in the league in that time. They just rattled off a five-game win streak. Karl-Anthony Towns is an All-Star for the third time. Anthony Edwards is about to become the face of McDonald’s. And D’Angelo Russell is hopefully getting the fans back on their feet at the Target Center. This isn’t meant to be some kind of Chicken Little, the sky is falling column. I’m just here to point out what was in the back of Wolves fans’ minds all season: What happens to the Timberwolves if and when the defense falls off?
Across the first half of the 2021-22 NBA season, the Wolves were playing the best defense the franchise has seen since Kevin Garnett patrolled the paint. Patrick Beverley, Jarred Vanderbilt, DLo, and the boys gave up only 108.2 points per 100 possession before New Year’s Day, the 11th-best defense in the league. They had been inside the top ten most of the season. Vanderbilt looked like a young Dennis Rodman with some real First-Team All-Defense aspirations. Pat Bev was reshaping Minnesota in his image, and even Ant, KAT, and DLo were playing the best defense of their careers. It was a lot of fun while it lasted.
Since then, they have not been so good. Minnesota is 17th in the NBA, giving up 112.4 points per 100 possessions. That drops to 24th and 115.1 points in their last 15 games. Those numbers are not horrendous, but the slippage is there and was never more evident than during Minnesota’s 132-119 loss to the Sacramento Kings on the second night of a back-to-back on Wednesday. Nobody looked particularly interested in doing anything to slow down the Kings. Domantas Sabonis muscled his way to 22 points and 14 rebounds, helping the Kings outrebound the Wolves 51-34. Either Sabonis is the next Chris Webber and poised to take the Kings back to their glory days. Or the Wolves have “let go of the rope” on defense, as Chris Finch is wont to say from time to time. It’s an observation that the players and coaches seem to agree with.
In the post-game press conference, Towns said it is “fatigue.” DLo blamed “complacency” for the slippage. And Edwards revealed he’s been nursing a knee injury for about a month. He said it didn’t allow him to “slide his feet, jump, or get a burst of speed” on defense. In reality, it’s probably a mixed bag of everything. Minnesota’s played only six of their 20 games in 2022 at the “friendly” confines of the Target Center. They are 16-10 in Minneapolis and 13-16 on the road. The Wolves have got two more games on the road in Chicago and Indianapolis before heading home and hosting the Charlotte Hornets and Toronto Raptors before the much-needed All-Star break. Thirteen of Minnesota’s 24 post-All-Star break games come at home, giving Towns and his teammates a nice advantage down the stretch.
The Wolves have been known to get a little full of themselves after a bit of success this season, losing winnable games in the process. DLo and the Wolves certainly can’t get complacent. Seven of their next eight games come against playoff teams, and Ant isn’t the only player dealing with injuries. Russell just returned from a four-game absence. Beverley has been in and out of the lineup with an ankle injury. And Towns was sporting a wrap on his right thumb after the loss to the Kings. It’s that time of the year when everyone is dealing with something. The All-Star break will provide time to heal, but if they want to continue to compete for the sixth seed in the West, the Wolves will need to grit their teeth through some hard-fought games down the stretch.
The good news is that unlike the usual mid-season meltdowns Wolves fans have set their watches by since 2004, this isn’t a complete landslide. Instead, it’s a slight dip that’s easily correctable. Minnesota is getting better at rebounding as the season goes on, the Kings game notwithstanding. They’re 14th in rebound rate since Jan. 1, up from 26th through their first 36 games. They’re still third in blocks, fourth in steals per game, and lead the league in points off of turnovers in their last 20 games. The pieces of a top-10 defense are still there. The Wolves just have to remember to keep their foot on the gas until the buzzer sounds.
Everything is going to be okay. The Wolves still have the 14th best defensive rating for the entire season. It’s still some of the best defense we’ve seen in Minnesota in almost 20 years. If the offense continues to be anything close to the league’s best, it’s okay if the defense slips a little bit. The issue is if the defense continues to worsen, and suddenly the sky truly begins to fall around them. If they become the same old Wolves, it’s okay to panic.
