Locks
NFL (1 Unit) Washington Commanders +3 @ NY Jets (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:00 PM CT on CBS
I can’t get over the fact that the Jets passed over Trevor Siemian in favor of starting Tim Boyle a few weeks ago. Now they’re stuck with Siemian today with Zach Wilson in concussion protocol, so it’s ironic how things work themselves out. How Siemian is going to operate an offense that’s already dead last in EPA/play and success rate, behind the absolute worst offensive line in football, is beyond me.
Even against Washington’s league-worst offense, I just don’t see them putting up points. Hopefully the Commanders can get a couple scoring drives put together here and claim the outright win, but I’ll take the three points with a team that’s 5-2 ATS as a road dog this season.
NFL (1 Unit) Cleveland Browns/Houston Texans Over 40.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:00 PM CT on CBS
I’m not too worried about CJ Stroud being out again for Houston, as Case Keenum now has an extra week to work as the starter. That should help the Texans move the ball and score plenty against the Browns, who allow the most points in the league in road games.
Cleveland should also continue to put up points with their new offensive philosophy built around letting Joe Flacco chuck it all over the yard, especially since Houston is missing key defensive players. That style creates volatility and fuels higher-scoring games no matter what, so we should see these teams clear a fairly low total.
NFL (1 Unit) Arizona Cardinals/Chicago Bears Over 42 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:25 PM CT on FOX
Thanks to climate change, Christmas Eve in Chicago will look very different from what you’d remember in Home Alone. It’s going to be downright balmy with very light winds, putting no weather-related damper on scoring here. That should help the Bears move it with ease against a Cardinals defense that lets pretty much any opponent score at will.
Much has been made about the defensive resurgence of the Bears the past several weeks, but that’s been built against an extremely easy schedule of opposing offenses. The Cardinals have moved the ball well since Kyler Murray returned, and I don’t see that changing today as both teams help cash this over.
NFL (1 Unit) Dallas Cowboys/Miami Dolphins Over 49.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:25 PM CT on FOX
As I mentioned on my podcast, I’m scared for my Cowboys today. Dallas runs man coverage more than just about any team in the league, and that will be trouble against all the skill position speed for Miami. As long as Tyreek Hill suits up today, I think the Dolphins can score easily against a Cowboys defense that’s historically struggled on the road.
But this also has to be a bounce back spot for the Dallas offense after last week. The Miami defense is not all its cracked up to be, as they’ve allowed 31.0 PPG against teams with offenses ranked top-15 in EPA/play and success rate. The Cowboys are top-5 in both metrics, and as long as they don’t struggle too much on a grass field should put up plenty of points to reach this high total.
NFL Sunday Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)
0.5 Unit – Sam LaPorta Over 47.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.75 Unit – Breece Hall Over 78.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Antonio Gibson Over 55.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Devin Singletary Over 83.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – David Njoku Over 50.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.25 Unit – David Njoku Anytime TD (+200)
0.5 Unit – Dalton Schultz Over 30.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Josh Downs Over 46.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Tyler Lockett Over 49.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Jaxson Smith-Njigba Over 42.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.75 Unit – Rachaad White Over 103.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)
0.75 Unit – Tua Tagovailoa Over 22.5 Completions (-110)
0.75 Unit – Dak Prescott Over 36.5 Pass Attempts (-110)
0.5 Unit – Jaylen Waddle Over 66.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Jake Ferguson Over 43.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.75 Unit – DJ Moore Over 5.5 Receptions (+110)
0.25 Unit – DJ Moore Anytime TD (+105)
0.75 Unit – Justin Fields Over 59.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – James Conner Over 64.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 1849-1655 ATS (+83.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
