Locks
NBA Summer League (0.5 Unit) Chicago Bulls/Memphis Grizzlies Over 183.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Prime Video
Books are on to the fact that this game should be an up-tempo affair with minimal defense. They saw Memphis go off up in Utah the past week, dropping 111 and 100 points with their true roster before resting the starters for the final game. I think the Grizzlies can keep that up here, especially against a Bulls roster that is full of players that weren’t quality defensive pieces in college. Chicago has scorers though, blended with a ton of athletic specimens that should be able to go up and down the floor with a fast-paced Grizzlies team. These are two deep and talented rosters, so I see plenty of scoring all game long.
NBA Summer League (0.75 Unit) LA Lakers -1.5 vs OKC Thunder (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on Prime Video
There are some impressive summer league rosters this year, and then there’s OKC. This team is loaded with true rookies, as they comprise 15 of the 18 spots on the Thunder roster. There are a couple of quality players, but the talent and depth fall off a cliff in a hurry after Otega Oweh and Aday Mara, challenging even the most knowledgeable college hoops fan to recognize names.
That lack of talent and depth hurt them up in Utah for the opening summer event, as they were run out by an average margin of 25.3 points in their three games. I’m expecting that to continue in Vegas, and it should start tonight against a relatively impressive Lakers squad. LA has considerably more professional experience on their roster, complemented by some rookies that I’m really high on in a format like this such as Robert McCray and AK Okereke. As we saw in yesterday’s opening action, the have-nots are just going to struggle and that’s what I see happening for the Thunder.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Zebby Matthews Under 2.5 Earned Runs (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 7:10 PM CT on MLB.TV
The home/road splits for Matthews are pretty drastic, and that’s what I’ll bank on here. Zebby has been getting crushed on the road, but at Target Field he owns just a 2.08 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP, and a .213 opponent batting average. That’s pretty dominant stuff, which is why he hasn’t allowed more than 2 runs in any of his home starts, even holding the Dodgers to a pair of runs last time out. He’s facing an Angels team that recently broke out of a scoring slump, but still struggle in weighted scoring metrics against righties so I’ll take a shot on the under here.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 11-11 (-0.51 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Extreme Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
