Locks
MLB (0.75 Unit) Cleveland Guardians/Minnesota Twins First 5 Innings Under 4.5 (-138; Odds via Fanduel): 6:15 PM CT on FOX
The formerly-hot Twins offense sputtered to an ugly halt last night, and if they’re going to do that against a questionable right-handed starter, then they’re in trouble today against a solid lefty on the mound. That’s what the Guardians have today in Logan Allen, who already held Minnesota down in his other meeting with them this year. The Twins are putrid against lefties, ranking bottom-5 in most metrics including dead last for weighted runs created.
But if the Twins are going to struggle to score early in this one, then so will Cleveland. Once again they match up against a right-handed starter, but Sonny Gray is much better than what they faced last night. Gray has been elite at home with a 1.27 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, and .198 on-base average allowed. Against this Guardians lineup that proved last night how bad they are against righties, Gray should hold them down and help keep the first 5 innings low-scoring.
MLB (0.75 Unit) NY Yankees/LA Dodgers Over 9 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:15 PM CT on FOX
These are two teams getting into nothing but slugfests lately, yet the total is held down by the presence of Gerrit Cole taking the mound. The past 10 games for New York have averaged 9.7 runs, while the past 10 for LA have averaged 12.1 runs.
A lot of that scoring for the Dodgers has been based on their ability to crush right-handed pitching, which they’ll see with Cole today. The Yankee ace hasn’t been sharp lately though, allowing 11 runs over his past 2 starts and posting a 5.18 ERA last month. Against a lineup as potent and hot as LA, those struggles could certainly continue.
Meanwhile though, I think the Yankees put up a big number themselves here. Dodgers starter Michael Grove has been knocked around in his first few appearances, and now faces the Yankee lineup as it returns to full health. With a solid wind blowing out of Dodger stadium, I think these teams keep the scoring going all night.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 1316-1156 ATS (+71.3 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
