Locks
MLB (0.5 Unit) Junior Caminero Over 2.5 Hits+Runs+RBI’s (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:40 PM CT on MLB.TV
I’m very late to this party, and there’s no way I’m jumping on the home run bandwagon at the current price. Fun fact: if you started with $100 last Thursday, bet it on Caminero to hit a home run, then rolled it over every day you’d have a quarter million dollars to your name. I’m not falling victim to that fomo at a +230 price today which is ridiculous for a home run prop, but this feels like a better approach.
A home run would clear this prop with a single swing, but there are plenty of other ways to cash it, especially for a guy that’s just plain hot at the plate with a .327 average and 1.075 OPS last month. Hitting conditions in Kansas City are ideal again, and this Royals pitching staff is bottom-4 in the league no matter how you slice it, so I think Caminero can cash in again.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Bryce Miller Alt Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+125; Odds via Fanduel): 8:40 PM CT on MLB.TV
Miller’s standard strikeout prop of 6.5 is juiced too heavily to the over, probably because he’s been clearing that with regularity. With strikeout totals of 9, 7, 7, and 11 in his 4 June starts, while facing some lineups that are downright scary against righties like him, Miller is simply in great form. I think it continues tonight against an Angels team that he’s dominated in the past, with their lineup only batting a cumulative .189 with a .578 OPS. They’re also second in baseball for highest K-rate against righties, so this alternate number with a juicy return is how I want to play it tonight.
WNBA (0.5 Unit) Seattle Storm/Phoenix Mercury Over 167.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on CW Seattle
The first two meetings between these teams on the season were ugly for Seattle, as they only managed 68 and 73 points to help keep both games under this total. This number is significantly higher than the closing total for those meetings, and I think there’s good reason for it. Mostly, this is just a different Storm team than those games, especially on the defensive end as they can’t stop anything right now.
Seattle has allowed 90.8 PPG in the past 8 games, compared to 81.8 in the first 12 games of the year. That’s caused those 8 games to go 7-1 over the total, after starting the season 3-9 to the over. This is another situation where a slumping defense and improving offense can fuel plenty of points, especially against a Mercury team that is 7-1 to the over at home, best in the league. Phoenix has too much talent to be having this bad of a season, but they’ve been playing better lately and can take advantage of the weak Seattle defense, sending this game over the total.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 10-11 (-0.54 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Extreme Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
