The Minnesota Vikings won 13 games in 2022, but have approached the offseason more like a team in transition than a true Super Bowl contender. Still, Kevin O’Connell and Kwesi Adofo-Menash have made it clear in their public comments that they are striving to win a championship. This is not a front office that will completely blow the franchise up in hopes of rebuilding.
With that ultimate goal in mind, and the many moves the Vikings made this offseason, it makes sense to question whether or not they can contend for the Super Bowl as currently constructed. Robert Mays and Nate Tice of The Athletic recently did a study on all of the Super Bowl winners since 2011. They found that the following team-building requirements were essential to past Super Bowl winners:
- Seven very-good-to-elite players
- Elite passing game
- Elite performance from a pass rusher in the playoffs
- Solid offensive line at every position
- Solid secondary and pass defense
- A way to win on offense when the opponent takes away your best option
- Underlying young talent that contributes above their pay grade
Do the Vikings meet these standards? Let’s evaluate each one:
1. Seven HIgh-Level Players
Mays and Tice had pretty stringent requirements for players they considered elite (blue chip) and very good (red chip). Blue-chip players were almost exclusively first-team All-Pros, players who were recognized as the best at their position that year. Red-chip players were second-team All-Pros and Pro Bowlers who had good seasons.
The Vikings have one clear blue-chip player: Justin Jefferson. His dominance at every route is best shown by his route tree from Matt Harmon’s Reception Perception data. You can’t cover him on anything:
Beyond Jefferson, the Vikings have a couple of candidates who may become blue-chip players in 2023. Christian Darrisaw had a dominant second season and is one of the best young tackles in the NFL. He has heavy competition, with old-guard players like Trent Williams and Lane Johnson still dominating while other young players like Tristan Wirfs and Andrew Thomas also play at a high level. Still, he could rise above my current assessment of him as a red-chip player.
T.J. Hockenson is another younger player who is currently a red-chip talent who could ascend to blue chip. He has a difficult path to surpass players like Travis Kelce, George Kittle, and Mark Andrews at tight end.
Veterans Kirk Cousins and Danielle Hunter, assuming the latter stays in Minnesota, are red-chip players. It’s unlikely that either will become blue chip at this point in their careers. You might also consider Brian O’Neill in this category.
So far I’ve listed six players, with O’Neill on the fringe. To find a seventh, you have to get creative. Harrison Smith might still be a red-chip player, but he is on the decline. C.J. Ham is awesome, but does not play enough snaps to have a big impact. The Vikings are hopeful that one of their free-agent signings, like Byron Murphy or Marcus Davenport, could become that player. Outside of that, the team will be relying on young players like Lewis Cine, one of the many cornerbacks, and Brian Asamoah to step up and become a high impact player this season.
2. An Elite Passing Game
Mays and Tice found that a common thread among teams that have won the Super Bowl has been an elite quarterback (Brady, Mahomes), or a QB who got hot in the playoffs (Eli Manning in 2011, Joe Flacco in 2012, Nick Foles in 2017). So, the question here is: Can the Vikings field an elite passing game, or can Kirk Cousins go on a heater in the playoffs?
In 2022, the Vikings had an above average, but not top tier, passing game. They ranked fifth in dropback success rate, 10th in EPA/dropback, and 15th in Passing DVOA. Given that it was Kevin O’Connell‘s first year as a play caller and working with Cousins, one could reasonably expect improvement in 2023.
The 2023 Minnesota Vikings have all the ingredients to make an elite passing game. They have a quality QB in Cousins, an offensive-minded head coach in Kevin O’Connell, an elite receiver in Jefferson, and they significantly beefed up their secondary options in the passing game, adding Hockenson in the middle of last year and Jordan Addison in the draft. They have a great pair of bookend tackles to pass protect, and the only real question mark in the passing game is the interior offensive line’s pass blocking. Hopefully, those ingredients will give the Vikings the passing game necessary to compete.
Even if the passing game isn’t elite during the regular season, the pieces are there for a playoff run. Cousins has shown the ability to get hot for stretches of time, and it’s not implausible to see him go on a Joe Flacco– or Nick Foles-like heater during the playoffs.
3. an Elite pass rusher
One thread between Super Bowl winners was a pass rusher who averaged over five pressures per game in the playoffs. Sometimes this came from expected sources, like Von Miller in 2015, and sometimes it came from surprise players, like Paul Kruger in 2012. Mays and Tice concluded that a pass rush doesn’t need to be elite during the regular season (although that certainly doesn’t hurt), but the defense needs at least one player to consistently impact the game during the playoffs.
For the Vikings, there are only a couple of candidates that have shown that breakout potential. Hunter is the obvious answer, but his status with the team is in limbo. Marcus Davenport is really the only other guy who has shown flashes of dominant pass-rush play. Dean Lowry is the only other player on the unit who has shown pass-rushing potential in the past.
If Hunter or Davenport are unavailable or unable to step up, the Vikings will likely fall short in this category. They would require a huge leap from one of their unproven edge rushers to get there.
4. A Solid Offensive line
Line play is obviously very important to a successful offense, and most research has found that having solid play across the board is more impactful than having one or two elite players in the trenches. That’s because the offensive line is a weak-link system. If one lineman fails, it can destroy the whole play. It only takes one player to whiff on their block for a QB to end up sacked.
The Vikings have a good start with a pair of high-quality bookend tackles in Christian Darrisaw and Brian O’Neill. It is more difficult to help tackles in pass protection that it is interior linemen, so having good pass protectors at those positions is very important.
However, the Vikings fell short on the interior last year. Cousins had the fourth-highest pressure rate among QBs who started at least half of their team’s games last year, and 25% of that pressure came from the LG spot (Ezra Cleveland), while 28% came from the RG spot (Ed Ingram), per PFF. The Vikings really struggled against quality interior pass rushers, like Dexter Lawrence of the New York Giants in the Wild Card game or the Washington Commanders’ Daron Payne.
Ingram was a rookie last year and improved as the season went along, but Cleveland has always been a better run blocker than pass protector. Add in Garrett Bradbury‘s return, who had his best season as a pro last year, and the Vikings have some questions that need to be answered before they can be considered to have a solid offensive line.
5. A Solid PASS DEFENSE
Last season, the Vikings’ defense started out as a middle-of-the-pack unit but cratered as the season went on, culminating in an abysmal performance against the Giants in the playoffs. The team ended the season 27th in Pass Defense DVOA and was 26th in Dropback EPA/Play from weeks 10 to 18, allowing an opposing success rate of 47.7%.
However, the defense underwent major changes this offseason. The Vikings replaced Ed Donatell with new DC Brian Flores. The entire starting CB group has turned over, with Patrick Peterson, Chandon Sullivan, and Duke Shelley being replaced by Byron Murphy and competition between third-round rookie Mekhi Blackmon and second-year players Andrew Booth Jr. and Akayleb Evans. They cut Eric Kendricks, traded Za’Darius Smith, and Dalvin Tomlinson left in free agency.
To improve this year, the Vikings will have to hope that young players like the three corners listed above, Brian Asamoah, Lewis Cine, and Josh Metellus, can step up and play at a high level in Brian Flores’ blitz-happy, man-heavy defense. Flores should be able to manufacture pressure to help the secondary, but that secondary will still need to hold up until the pass rush can get there, something they were unable to do last season.
6. A Secondary Way to win on offense
Opponents will take away your best options in the playoffs. The recent Kansas City Chiefs are a great example of this.
Two seasons ago, the Cincinnati Bengals took away Patrick Mahomes‘ options downfield to come back in the AFC Championship game. Without a reliable run game or short-passing game to turn to, the juggernaut offense faltered. This past season, the Chiefs came back with a more diverse short-passing game, and a running game led by Isiah Pacheco and a powerful offensive line to complement Mahomes. It certainly worked; they ended up winning the Super Bowl for the second time in four years.
As discussed above, the Vikings were a solid passing team last year but were very poor running the ball. They ranked 28th in Rushing DVOA, 29th in Rushing EPA/Play, and 25th in Rush Success Rate. At times last year, the passing game also seemed to lack diversity. It seemed to be Jefferson-or-bust.
But the Vikings invested heavily in the passing and running game this offseason. Added during a mid-season trade last year, Hockenson helped diversify the offense and should continue to be a strong option this season. Adam Thielen was on the decline and departed, but the team has replaced him with Addison, an exciting first-round rookie. Addison and K.J. Osborn should prove to be very solid third options behind Jefferson and Hockenson.
In the running game, the Vikings moved on from Dalvin Cook due to the salary cap implications, but they retained Alexander Mattison and added DeWayne McBride in the draft. They re-invested in C.J. Ham and added run blocking TE Josh Oliver in free agency, signaling a move to heavier personnel and hopefully a more diverse and effective run game.
Given the investments this offseason, it’s fair to project a far more well-rounded offense for the Vikings in 2023, and that offense should have a way to win if opponents shut down Jefferson and the passing game.
7. Cheap players as strong contributors
Mays and Tice found that Super Bowl-winning teams often had young and cheap players who were strong contributors and then went on to earn significant contracts in free agency. This makes sense. In a salary cap league, the best teams will have players that perform well above their pay grade.
Justin Jefferson is the most obvious example of this on the Vikings, as his $4 million cap his is well below his true value. But as the biggest star on the team, including him on this list would be double-counting him.
What the Vikings really need in this category is difficult to predict: breakout players. Fortunately, the team has put themselves in a position where a lot of young players have the ability to excel. Not counting a couple of stars mentioned above, the following players are all on their rookie deals and have the chance to earn a significant snap share in 2023:
- Brian Asamoah
- Mekhi Blackmon
- Andrew Booth Jr.
- Cam Bynum
- Ty Chandler
- Lewis Cine
- Ezra Cleveland
- Ed Ingram
- DeWayne McBride
- Josh Metellus
- Jalen Nailor
- K.J. Osborn
- Esezi Otomewo
- Jaquelin Roy
- Luiji Vilain
- Jay Ward
- D.J. Wonnum
Obviously, not all of the players listed above will break out, and it’s unlikely most will see significant playing time this year. However, if a couple of players from the list above start to play at a high level, or a handful become quality starters, the Vikings will be in a very good place with the youth on the team moving forward.
Conclusion
The Vikings have a few bars that they need to clear to become a Super Bowl contender. Looking at the team last year, you could say they fell short in about four of the categories above. While they have the star power and structure to become one of the NFL’s best offenses, they have not reached those heights under QB Kirk Cousins. Hopefully, the additional investments made this offseason on offense will push the team forward to an elite passing game with multiple ways to win.
On defense, the team is relying on young players and new DC Brian Flores to significantly improve the team. The Vikings will need a couple of young players, particularly in the secondary, to hit if they want to field the competent pass defense that’s required to become a Super Bowl team. If they get there, Danielle Hunter has shown that he can finish the job as a pass rusher. But the young, cheap impact from defensive players will be key if the Vikings are going to be successful.
