With Kirk Cousins entering the final year of his contract and no real succession plan in place (sorry, Jaren Hall), the Minnesota Competitive Rebuilders will be an easy target for rampant quarterback speculation throughout the 2023 NFL season. Aaron Rodgers is following in the exact same footsteps as Brett Favre from 15 years ago after the Green Bay Packers traded him to the New York Jets, so I’m setting the over/under at November 1 for when customized images of the four-time MVP in a Minnesota Vikings uniform starts circulating online.
If the Rodgers experiment fails this coming season, the Jets can trade away the psychedelics enthusiast without incurring any dead cap ramifications. (And with Minnesota legislators legalizing recreational marijuana effective August 1, that certainly can’t hurt the Vikings’ appeal to Rodgers.)
But what if there was another quarterback who could be connected to the Vikings? One who provides the necessary runway to align with the Justin Jefferson, T.J. Hockenson, Christian Darrisaw, and Jordan Addison timeline. That’s where Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray comes in.
While I recognize that sounds rather foolish on the surface, there’s a high probability of the Cardinals going full reset after the 2023 season. As it stands now, Arizona is in the pole position to land the top-overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Oddsmakers in Las Vegas have given the Cardinals the lowest win total throughout the NFL at 4.5. And following a 2023 draft-night trade with the Houston Texans, Arizona owns Houston’s first round pick in 2024. Vegas projects the Texans — along with the Indianapolis Colts, Las Vegas Raiders, Los Angeles Rams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and Washington Commanders — to have the second-lowest projected win total at 6.5.
When combining Arizona’s and Houston’s first-round picks for the 2024 draft, ESPN’s Football Power Index projects the Cardinals to have a 31% chance of landing the top-overall selection. And the crown jewel of next year’s draft class is USC quarterback Caleb Williams, making 2018 Heisman Trophy winner Kyler Murray more than expendable. Speaking of probability, there’s a legitimate outcome where the Cardinals land the first- and second-overall picks in next year’s draft. I don’t know about you, but kickstarting a rebuild with Williams and Ohio State wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. doesn’t sound half bad for Arizona and first-year (cornball) head coach Jonathan Gannon.
Even though it’s an apples and oranges comparison, let’s not forget that Cardinals owner Michael Bidwill didn’t blink when presented with an opportunity to upgrade at quarterback through the draft with Murray, even though Arizona used the 10th-overall pick on quarterback Josh Rosen the year before. Granted, moving off of a quarterback in Murray that you just handed a five-year, $230 million extension pales in comparison to dumping a quarterback in Rosen who was almost immediately a bust.
It’s worth mentioning that the Cardinals have the lowest projected win total in the NFL this season largely due to Murray tearing his ACL late last season, which will force him to miss significant time in 2023. And if Arizona decides to embrace the tank after sputtering early in the season, it wouldn’t come as a shock if Murray didn’t play a single snap.
If the new regime in Arizona decides to get the NFL’s most recent latest and greatest in Williams with the top pick in next year’s draft, how many of the 31 other teams would be in a realistic position to trade for one of the highest-paid quarterbacks in the league? To maximize Murray’s trade value by acquiring multiple first-round picks beginning in 2024, the Cardinals would likely have to eat a $46.2 million dead cap hit on their 2024 books by trading him before June 1. That means that Murray would be playing on a $5.6 million cap hit in 2024 for the team that trades for him before the whopper cap hits kick in in 2025 and beyond.
Although he’s polarizing with his standoffish attitude and affinity for prioritizing Call of Duty over studying game film, Murray is still one of the more electrifying quarterbacks on the planet. His dynamic mobility paired with his ability to make all the throws is quite tantalizing for an NFL franchise that feels they’re a quarterback away. And a Kevin O’Connell offense with Murray at the helm would be quite the 180 from the past six years with Kirk Cousins.
After releasing Dalvin Cook, the Vikings have a little over $54 million in cap room for their 2024 books. Which would easily accommodate Murray’s $5.6 million cap hit next season as long Arizona trades him before June 1. But with substantial extensions due for Jefferson, Hockenson, and Darrisaw, the Vikings would essentially have little money left over for a splash (or two) on the defensive side of the ball beginning in 2025 and beyond. And with the multiple first-round picks that it would likely cost Minnesota to acquire Murray, it’d be mighty tough to fill out their defense after loading up its cap room for O’Connell’s offense.
To be frank. I’m not saying that this is — by any stretch of the imagination — going to happen. However, the football world should be plenty prepared for the Murray-to-Minnesota narrative to begin during the heart of the 2023 season, especially if/when the picture gets clearer that Arizona starts sinking closer to the bottom of the NFL with their eyes sight on the first-overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.
