After teasing the fanbase before the NFL draft with their reported infatuation with getting a quarterback on a rookie contract, the Minnesota Vikings told us through their actions that they’re plenty okay with Kirk Cousins as their lame-duck signal caller in 2023. Cousins and the Vikings agreed to a contract restructure in March, which created $16 million in cap room this season. However, by freeing up space in the here and now, Minnesota will incur a $28.5 million dead cap in 2024 if Cousins decides to leave in free agency, with additional dead cap hits across two seasons.
Instead of wowing the football world by selecting Cousins’ potential successor on Day 1 or 2 of the draft, the Vikings waited until Day 3 when former BYU quarterback Jaren Hall fell into their lap in the fifth round. Is Hall actually the long-term play here at quarterback? That’s a different topic for another day.
If we’re being honest, Contract Year Cousins might be the best lever to pull for the self-proclaimed Minnesota Competitive Rebuilders. There’s no need to bore you about the supply and demand for starting-caliber NFL quarterbacks. Regardless of where you land on the Kirky spectrum, we can all agree that he’s served as the poster child for successfully exploiting the quarterback market over the past half-decade. Having said that, Cousins is still the type of grownup who can put you in a position to win games seemingly every week.
But what if this contract standoff actually works out for both parties? Sure, folks will justifiably point to Cousins succumbing to the cartoon version of himself on fourth-and-eight in the wild card round at home against the New York Giants to end last season. But we’re lying to ourselves if we can’t acknowledge that he played lights out up until that point.
Cousins set playoff career-highs (as a Viking) by going:
- 31/39 (79.5 completion percentage)
- 273 yards
- 2 touchdowns
- 112.9 passer rating
- 1 rushing touchdown
That’s what doing your job for 59 minutes as an NFL quarterback in the postseason looks like. And more often than not, that’s exactly the level of play that leads a team to a resounding victory when it matters most. But as is the case with Cousins, the numbers alone will never paint the full picture.
Fourth-and-8 aside, there’s plenty to be encouraged about with Cousins in Year 2 with Kevin O’Connell. It will be the first time Cousins gets to run it back in the same scheme with the same play caller since 2016 with Sean McVay in Washington. In that 2016 season, Cousins was third in the NFL with a career-high 4,917 passing yards. Continuity between a quarterback and play caller still goes a long way on Sundays in the fall. Speaking of the 2016 season and second-year runs, Matt Ryan and Kyle Shanahan won the NFC and nearly the Super Bowl in their second season together with the Atlanta Falcons.
After an entire offseason with Pro Bowl tight end T.J. Hockenson and having the luxury of a new toy to throw to in 2023 first-round pick Jordan Addison, along with obviously the best wide receiver on the planet in Justin Jefferson, this will arguably be the most talented pass-catchers Cousins has had at his disposal since he entered the league. And with a defense that still has considerably more question marks than certainties, this season will ultimately come down to how far O’Connell, Cousins, and the offense can take this team.
When looking back on the Shanahan/McVay coaching tree, history has been extremely kind to quarterbacks in their second season in said scheme. We already know about what Shanahan/Ryan and McVay/Cousins did together in 2016, but here’s how others have fared.
- In 2018, Jared Goff threw for a career-high 4,688 yards and led the Los Angeles Rams to the Super Bowl in Year 2 with McVay.
- In 2020, Aaron Rodgers threw for a career-high 48 touchdowns and won MVP in Year 2 with former Shanahan and McVay assistant Matt LaFleur.
- In 2021, Joe Burrow recorded a career-high 108.3 passer rating and led the Cincinnati Bengals to the Super Bowl in Year 2 with former McVay assistant Zac Taylor.
Am I saying that Cousins is a lock for the MVP and/or the Vikings have already punched their ticket to the Super Bowl as a result of being in Year 2 with O’Connell? Of course not. Not to belabor the point, but continuity — especially for this particular Shanahan/McVay coaching tree — has proven to go a long way lately. PS, don’t sleep on the Miami Dolphins in Year 2 with former Shanahan assistant Mike McDaniel.
In 2023, Cousins will no longer have the luxury of quarterbacking a franchise that has committed to him past this coming season, which hasn’t been the case for him since 2017. But unlike the last time he faced these circumstances, he’ll be armed with the most talented receiving corps of his career and will be empowered by a young offensive-minded head coach who comes from a long line of coaches that took their team and/or quarterback to new heights in their second season together.
It’s the ultimate win-win for Minnesota. If Cousins balls out and the Vikings take another step forward after their inaugural 13-win season with O’Connell, then extending him is the obvious answer. Granted, expecting this team to improve on last season’s win total and/or to win at least one playoff game still feels rather outlandish. Conversely, if this team predictably regresses and the offense doesn’t experience a noticeable jump, then this new regime will have all the flexibility in the world to do as they please at quarterback in 2024.
And that flexibility is exactly why Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and O’Connell have remained reluctant on committing to the NFL’s most polarizing signal caller up until this point.
