Few people gave the Minnesota Vikings a chance against the San Francisco 49ers this week. Heading into the game, national pundits viewed the Vikings as a disappointment who had regressed after a lucky streak of victories in one-score games last season. Their only two wins were over the struggling Chicago Bears and Carolina Panthers. Conversely, the talking heads viewed San Francisco as a dominant team, motivated after losing a sloppy game against the Cleveland Browns’ great defense.
Sportsbooks had the Vikings as seven-point underdogs at home. No one on the ESPN panel picked the Vikings to win.
The Vikings won. They scored first and never trailed throughout the game. On defense, three turnovers contributed to the win. On offense, Minnesota’s passing game propelled the team to points and victory.
San Francisco held Minnesota’s rushing attack to only 74 yards on 21 carries with a 33% success rate, a poor number. Meanwhile, Kirk Cousins threw for 378 yards on 45 attempts, an 8.4 average. The Niners didn’t sack him, and he threw two TDs and one INT. It was an impressive all-around performance from the passing game. Everyone contributed, from Cousins to the receivers (particularly rookie Jordan Addison) to Kevin O’Connell‘s play calls getting guys open to the offensive line keeping Kirk clean.
Let’s dive into the tape to see how it happened:
Kirk and the receivers
Cousins played at an elite level. His passing stats above reflect that. So does his advanced box score from rbsdm.com. It shows he had a CPOE of 9.5, averaged 0.334 EPA/play and added 16 total expected points throughout the game:
Film study also reveals a great Cousins performance. He did a number of things at a high level. The first was the timing he played with, which has occasionally been slightly off this season — but not in this game. Cousins was operating quickly, and often got the ball out in rhythm into a short window of opportunity.
The play below is a great example, where the Vikings are running a play called C.O. Bow:
Cousins’ first read is an out to Brandon Powell, assuming the pre-snap coverage doesn’t dictate an alert to K.J. Osborn (which it doesn’t). With that covered by the CB in the flat and a quarters look by the 49ers, Cousins knows he has a window of opportunity to throw the dig, but it’s a short one. Addison runs a good dig route at 15 yards, and allows himself space to come back to the ball. Cousins delivers a great throw on time with a defender in his lap, and Addison holds on through contact by the safety. A split second later, and this is incomplete or worse.
Cousins put on a masterclass of throwing with anticipation in this game, and the play above is a great taste of that.
Cousins’ pocket movement was also exemplary. There were a number of great plays in this regard, but this final one was his best. On this play, both Brian O’Neill (blocking Nick Bosa) and Dalton Risner (blocking Javon Hargrave) get compressed back into Cousins’ lap. They get pushed so far back that both contact the quarterback, who somehow stays upright and climbs in the pocket to make a throw to Addison.
Incredible job staying calm and executing by Kirk on this play:
Pre-snap, Cousins also saw the game at a high level in this contest. Minnesota’s coaches prepared the players for a lot of what they saw against the Niners. O’Connell and the rest of the offensive coaching staff deserve a lot of credit for arming the team with the answers in this game, but Cousins also deserves credit for getting the team into the right plays on the field. On the Vikings’ first snap, Cousins canned the original play and checked to an outside zone run that gained 19 yards.
Cousins’ screen to Cam Akers that converted a third-and-10 down to the two-yard line was another visibly impressive play. You can see Cousins motion T.J. Hockenson in as a part of the play, but then he recognizes that the 49ers are going to blitz an LB and S from the right side. That’s the perfect look to run a screen into, and he moves up and communicates the play change to the offense before the snap. When the Vikings run the screen, there’s no one for Ed Ingram or Garrett Bradbury to block within 10 yards because the Niners are caught so off guard.
It was an easy first-down pickup with a great finish by Akers:
In addition to all of the above, Cousins was incredibly accurate with his throws throughout the game. There was one miss to Addison in the back of the end zone, but he was consistently spot-on outside of that. No play shows this better than the one below where he hits Powell over the middle of the field. Powell does a great job of getting Fred Warner to turn his hips to create separation, but Cousins has to make a throw through an incredible tight window.
He just gets it over Dre Greenlaw‘s hand to hit Powell in stride:
Finally, no QB can be great without his supporting cast stepping up. You can see that in the above plays, with a couple of great routes. Addison, Hockenson, Osborn, and Powell helped Cousins out in this game with their stellar performances. But no play helped Cousins more than Addison’s second TD, where he ripped the ball from Charvarius Ward and ran it in for a TD just before halftime. I don’t mind the decision (and the near interception) from Cousins given the situation, because there is no harm from the pick with so little time left on the clock, and this throw is the upside.
When you’re clicking on all cylinders, these things just seem to work out:
Play Calling
Not only were Cousins and the Vikings offense executing at a high level, but O’Connell called a great game. There were so many plays where players ended up wide open or with mismatches.
Below is the biggest play, where Addison scored his first TD of the game. The Vikings roll out a great Cover 3 beater. Hockenson runs an underneath route out of bunch that makes the LB hesitate just a step, and Addison’s speed is enough to clear the LB and create a wide-open window. On the deep side of coverage, the safety would have an opportunity to stop this throw if he cheated over to Addison. However, that would leave the backside dig open because the CB is playing with outside leverage against bunch.
Cousins has an easy read against the safety, and Addison’s speed gets him the TD:
The next play is another great call by the Vikings. It’s a Dagger concept where an inside receiver runs vertically and the outside receiver runs a dig behind it. The idea is to get a chunk over the middle of the field by pulling the inside defender vertical and opening space underneath.
That works great on this play. The 49ers are playing off-man coverage against Addison and Osborn. The play action pulls the hole defender and coverage players on the two TEs and RB towards the line of scrimmage, leaving only three defenders in deep coverage. The inside player runs with his man. Once the deep safety, Talanoa Hufanga, turns his hips vertical to run with Addison, Cousins knows he has Osborn, whose corner is playing with outside leverage, wide open over the middle.
On the play below, another third down, the Vikings dial up a great man-coverage beater. They originally come out in bunch, the 49ers are showing a blitz with press-man coverage. Against a bunch, man defenses will typically “lock” the point (Hockenson) and then the CBs will take the first player inside or outside.
The Vikings use a short motion by Addison to get an adjustment. The inside CB moves to press Powell, but the outside CB has to stay off as he was originally playing the bunch. That sets up the play as a natural rub for Minnesota’s offense. Powell releases to the outside, and Addison runs an in underneath that. Addison running vertically for a few steps is crucial. It prevents the 49ers from passing this off instantly, and leaves the CB in man on Addison well out of position. The pass protection also holds up great to allow Cousins to make this throw against the blitz.
The Vikings also had a couple of nice gadget plays in this game to RB Ty Chandler. The first, an Addison double pass, worked excellently but got called back due to penalty. The second was the swing pass below, with a fake jet pass to Trishton Jackson to sell it. I like getting Chandler involved, because he has good burst and does a nice job of working through a tackle attempt at his hip here. However, the staff apparently doesn’t think he’s ready to play in between the tackles or pass protect. Hopefully, the Vikings come up with additional creative ways to use him without giving a tell when he’s in the game.
Pass Protection
The final element of Minnesota’s great game was pass protection. The Vikings have had one of the best offensive lines in the NFL this year. They have been near the top in both PFF grade for pass protection and ESPN’s Pass-Block Win Rate. This week, they will off against one of the best pass-rushing units in the league:
PFF had the Vikings as allowing pressure on 35% of plays on Monday night. Still, Cousins executed, with 14 completions on 16 attempts for 220 yards and a TD under pressure. A lot of the reason for pressure was his time to throw on those plays (2.70 seconds). The OL may have allowed a late pressure, but they allowed him more than enough time to get the ball off, and he didn’t take any sacks. You can see great protection and blitz pickup on a number of the plays above, but here are some other plays with great pass protection.
On this first, the Vikings converted on another third down, which they were 8/13 on in the game. The line gives Cousins great protection, and he has a wide lane to throw to Powell, who wins on a comeback:
The first third-down conversion of the game felt critical because the Vikings were backed up. Following up a turnover with a three-and-out would have been disastrous. But they needed a longer-developing play on third-and-12. The play below does a great job of playing on Warner’s ability to read route concepts. He drops deep, anticipating a dig from Addison. Instead, Addison goes out, and Cousins finds Hockenson underneath with more than enough space to convert.
Pass protection made this possible. Cousins hitches twice in a nice pocket before throwing:
Pass protection off of play action also regularly afforded Cousins the time to make throws. He has a ton of room to throw on the play below, one of his only misses in the game:
Cousins lamented the miss in his post-game press conference, saying, “I drove it to the outside figuring that would be a safe place to put it but I wish I would have just stopped him with the ball. … I gave the safety too much credit that he was going to get there when he probably wasn’t.”
Cousins’ great pocket movement in this game, highlighted above, worked well in conjunction with Minnesota’s pass protection. In the play below, he takes a deep play-action drop. When he hits the top, he sees a wide-open space in front of him. He knows that he dropped deep, and the protection is vulnerable around the edge at 10 yards. Ingram and O’Neill did a good job of pushing their guys vertically to that 10 yards, and the rest of the line kept a solid wall on the other two rushers.
That space allowed Cousins to step up aggressively in the pocket, and he delivered a nice ball to Powell, who wins on his route:
Conclusion
Minnesota’s passing game was excellent in an impressive win on Monday against the 49ers. Kirk Cousins played his best game of the season, and perhaps the best game of his Vikings career. His accuracy, timing, and pocket movement led to consistent chunk gains. The receiving group, particularly rookie Jordan Addison, stepped up in a big way, regularly creating separation. Kevin O’Connell pitched in with great play designs, and the offense was clearly well prepared for the 49ers’ defense. Finally, the offensive line held its own against San Francisco’s fearsome front four, and kept Cousins from getting sacked in an all-around performance.
