In a few days, Aaron Rodgers will approach an abandoned old house and prepare for “a darkness retreat.” Loaded up on ayahuasca, psychedelic drugs, and horse tranquilizers – the last two can’t be confirmed – Rodgers will spend the next 100 hours in darkness, alone with his thoughts.
With no music or Joe Rogan Experience to accompany him, Rodgers will contemplate his future. While the Green Bay Packers will be sitting on pins and needles waiting for a response, the rest of the NFC North will also sit in curiosity, wondering how his decision will affect the division.
With three possible options, the Minnesota Vikings will wait (or probably go on with their lives) like the rest of the world, wondering if Green Bay’s reign of back-to-back Hall of Fame quarterbacks is finally over. But like the rest of the division, each possibility has a different outcome for where the Vikings could wind up.
A TRADE
At the end of his retreat, the house is opened, and Rodgers comes storming out in a panic. He’s wearing a burlap sack over his head and grabs the poor soul in charge of administrating this retreat.
“WHERE IS HE??” Rodgers screamed.
“Where is who?” The nervous man asked.
“THE BATMAN!!!” Rodgers bellowed. “WHERE IS THE BATMAN???”
Rodgers had just spent the past several days thinking about all of the injustices in the world. By using his own drugs, Rodgers found his calling to “cleanse” society. The only way to accomplish this is by moving to Gotham. This means facilitating a trade to the New York Jets and becoming a modern-day version of Dr. Jonathan Crane, aka “The Scarecrow.”
Of course, Bruce Wayne and Batman are fictional characters, so Rodgers’ plan may be doomed from the start. What not be doomed is a massive deal that could shape the balance of the NFC North.
The Packers are in a similar position to the Vikings. They don’t have a lot of impact talent, and they don’t have a lot of salary cap space to acquire some. They have eight picks in the upcoming NFL draft, but three are in the seventh round. The Packers need to find a way to upgrade their offense, but having Rodgers’s $31.6 million cap hit on the books limits what they can do.
If the Packers were to trade Rodgers, they would incur $40.3 million in dead cap over the next four seasons, but they would get the draft capital they need to overturn their roster.
According to Pro Football Focus’s Mock Draft simulator, the Jets would need to include two first-round picks, two second-round picks, and a third-round pick just to get the chance of acceptance over 50%. Such a move would be a blessing for the Packers, who would have the draft capital to either acquire impact talent or trade up for a quarterback to follow in Rodgers’ footsteps.
This seems absurd, but remember that teams do dumb stuff when they believe they are a quarterback away. The Denver Broncos traded two top-10 picks, two second-round picks, a fifth-round pick, and three players in exchange for Russell Wilson last offseason, which quickly became football’s version of the Rudy Gobert trade. (I’d say Herschel Walker trade, but that was way worse than either.)
Perhaps some teams may have learned their lesson after Wilson did nothing besides burning the words “Let’s ride!” into everyone’s brains, but Woody Johnson isn’t one of them. During an interview with ESPN’s Dianna Russini, Johnson basically did everything but say, “We want Aaron Rodgers,” because if he did, Roger Goodell would show up in his office morning dressed as Batman due to the league’s tampering rules.
If the Jets pulled off another trade for an aging quarterback from Green Bay, the cap space would be an issue for the Packers. The Packers also wouldn’t have as much draft capital as the Chicago Bears, but they would be a step ahead of the Vikings, who should be looking to replace the aging Kirk Cousins in the coming years.
RETIREMENT
The keeper of the house – is it even a house? – opens the door, but Rodgers is nowhere to be found. The keeper runs and grabs someone else in amazement before asking, “Has he…risen?”
“Nope,” Rodgers said while sipping a cup of tea in the corner. “Actually, there was an escape hatch. You didn’t think I was just going to go to the bathroom in there, did you?”
Rodgers takes another sip before telling them the truth.
“Oh, yeah: I’m retiring.”
Rodgers’ retirement might be the worst possible outcome for the Packers. Should Rodgers retire, the Packers would be saddled with a similar cap hit if Rodgers were traded, but they would also have zero compensation for a player no longer on their roster.
This is a big deal considering the future of the franchise. They would have a cheaper option in Jordan Love, who will make $3.9 million in 2023. However, he will enter the final year of his rookie deal, meaning the Packers will either have to exercise his fifth-year option – which Over The Cap estimates at $20.7 million for 2024 – or give him an extension, which will jack up his price.
At that point, the Packers will need to construct a support system around Love while rotting in salary cap purgatory. Players like David Bakhtiari, Aaron Jones, and Jaire Alexander aren’t getting younger. Meanwhile, some players in their prime – such as Rashan Gary – will become more expensive.
After nearly 30 years of waiting, the Packers will finally be in rebuild mode. Unless Love is the second coming of Rodgers, Green Bay will have to find a way to build through the draft, leaving the door open for the Vikings to contend for the top spot in the division.
RETURN TO GREEN BAY
Shortly after being thrown into the house, Rodgers starts hearing voices. After the characters from the Miller Par…I mean…American Family Insurance Field Sausage Race start dancing around the room, a pair of familiar voices start talking to him.
“Discount double-check!” One of them screams.
“You don’t have to get that personal, man…” The other says.
Rodgers can’t take anymore and finally lights a match to see…Jake from State Farm?
“What the hell are you doing here?” Rodgers said.
“I seriously have to be everywhere,” Jake groaned. “One day, Andy Reid can’t stop drawing faces on people. The next, Patrick Mahomes is telling me how much he loves bath bombs. Then, some guy is eating my empanadas at a food truck. Then I’m at some random dinner where some girl is telling her parents that she likes to keep her toenail clippings in a jar. I need some space, man.”
After realizing that their darkness retreat has been double-booked, Rodgers and Jake have an in-depth conversation about life. Ultimately, Jake decides to quit State Farm to start his own ayahuasca-based plant farm, and Rodgers decides to return to the Packers.
While it’s not as good as the rebuild that would take place if he retires, Vikings fans may be satisfied with this outcome. Rodgers has shown a reluctance to show up to offseason team activities (OTA) and may try to find a way out of training camp like his predecessor B— F— (name edited for legal reasons).
Whatever his decision, Rodgers will have a profound impact on where the Vikings go, and it could drastically change what they decide to do this offseason.
