As the mass exodus of the Minnesota Vikings’ roster over the last decade continues, Kwesi Adofo-Mensah’s vision for the team becomes clearer. With substantial cap space freed up and a roster still flush with talent, Adofo-Mensah must now implement the next phase of his vision. After releasing Dalvin Cook, the Vikings are projected to have just over $54 million in cap space in 2024. Justin Jefferson’s cap hit will be $19.7 million during the 2024-25 calendar season because they picked up his fifth-year option.
However, extending Jefferson was almost a formality. The team will do everything they can to retain the generational receiver. Adofo-Mensah must now prepare to offer an extension that simultaneously satiates the generational receiver’s demands without crippling the team.
The Vikings will try to commit to Justin Jefferson over the next half-decade, if not longer. A five-year extension would only take him to his age-28 season. According to Spotrac, Jefferson’s estimated market value is five years, $130 million. But with another season of All Pro-level play, he will be closer to $150 million over the same time span.
The highest tier of wide receiver contracts is comparable to quarterback money. However, teams often pair expensive receivers with quarterbacks on rookie deals to offset the cap hits. The Vikings could benefit immensely from frontloading the contract during a rookie deal. Jefferson would receive his desired money during years when the Vikings may not contend with the best teams in the NFL. Meanwhile, the team would be able to use the future space for win-now moves when they are a viable contender.
The salary cap has increased at a rate of roughly 6% since 2018, and wide receiver contracts have accounted for only about 10% of salary cap spending in that time. Comparable contracts for Jefferson include Davante Adams (Las Vegas Raiders), Tyreek Hill (Miami Dolphins), and Cooper Kupp (Los Angeles Rams).
Davante Adams: five years/$140m
$65 million gtd. at signing, dead cap hits over $40 million until 2025
Adams’ deal was signed after the Raiders traded for the former Green Bay Packer in 2022. At the time, Adams was 29 years old and coming off of a 120-catch, 1,500-yard, 10-touchdown season paired with the reigning MVP, Aaron Rodgers.
He performed to contract standard during 2022. However, the Raiders’ abysmal direction led to Derek Carr’s release, leaving Adams without his preferred quarterback. We don’t know if Adams will finish out that contract in Vegas. However, it is more indicative of the current state of the Raiders than his performance.
Tyreek Hill: four years/$120m
$72 million gtd. at signing, dead cap hits over $50 million until 2025
Hill signed a new contract after the Kansas City Chiefs traded him to the Miami Dolphins, binding him to the Dolphins until his age-33 season. Hill was electric in Miami despite inconsistency at the quarterback position, with 1,700 receiving yards and seven touchdowns. In 2022 Hill performed to contract standards, and with Jaylen Waddle opposite him and a healthy quarterback, he could reach even more lofty heights.
Cooper Kupp: three years/$80m
$75 million gtd. at signing, dead cap hits over $45 million until 2025
Kupp’s 2022 season was riddled with injury and inconsistent quarterback play. In his last fully healthy season, Kupp won the Super Bowl and hoisted the Triple Crown, leading the NFL in receiving yards (1,947), receptions (145), and touchdowns (16). Kupp will be the benefactor of being the clear-cut WR1 in a Rams offense with little competition. With a healthy Matt Stafford next season, Kupp should reach stats of similar volume again.
Jefferson should and will command more than any of these players. He’s five-plus years younger than them and on a career trajectory to become one of the best receivers of all time. In a league that demands competitiveness, the structure of his extension is critical.
The extension must also allow for enough cap space to extend cornerstone left tackle Christian Darrisaw and premier tight end T.J. Hockenson. Another uncertainty looming over the situation is Kirk Cousins’ future in Minnesota. While Cousins may give the Vikings the best chance to win games now, the financial ramifications of extending Cousins should give them serious pause.
Contending while having two players account for such a significant portion of the cap is nearly impossible. While Cousins has not exhibited anything to summon suspicion that he will not continue to play at a high level over the next few years. However, signing two players to $30 million per year would make the Darrisaw and Hockenson extensions impossible.
Ultimately, the constraints created by Jefferson’s extension will have a similar effect to Cousins’ original contract. However, the perception around it will be vastly different, and recent historical precedent shows it is prudent to retain the player regardless of team direction. Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and his financial operatives must and will create a contract for Jefferson structured to best suit the team’s needs now and in the future, and the Vikings will retain their face of the franchise.
