In Week 17, it felt like a million different hypothetical playoff scenarios could’ve unfolded. The Minnesota Vikings still had a shot at the No. 1 seed. But they needed to keep winning to keep the No. 2 seed since the San Francisco 49ers, who had the 3-seed and still hold the tie-breaker. Also, there are still five teams fighting for the last two wild card spots, and Minnesota could play one of them!
Thinking about those potential scenarios provided a nice adrenaline rush for a short time. However, it eventually became a cumbersome task trying to predict and analyze every possible outcome regarding where the Vikings were going to land in the playoff picture. It would’ve been nice to get some clarity at this point, and boy, did we get that in the worst way possible.
The Green Bay Packers beat the Vikings mercilessly at Lambeau, demoting Minnesota to the third seed in the process. The New York Giants clinched the sixth seed after beating the Indianapolis Colts, who haven’t emotionally recovered from 33-0. This means, in all likelihood, the Vikings will host the Giants in the wild card round.
I have mixed feelings about this.
On the one hand, the Vikings don’t have to worry about getting their asses handed to them a second time against a division rival, which is nice. While the Giants are an above-average team, they don’t scare me the same way the Green Bay Packers, Detroit Lions, or Seattle Seahawks do. New York doesn’t have a star receiver on offense (unless Odell Beckham Jr. returns to the Big Apple), nor do they have an elite offensive line.
In their last showdown, Justin Jefferson caught 12 passes for 133 yards, and T.J. Hockenson had his best statistical performance as a Viking. I’m not saying it’s an easy win for Minnesota, but this is the most favorable playoff matchup we’ll get.
On the other hand, the Vikings would have to travel to San Francisco, assuming both teams survive the wild card round. The Vikings are 1-5 against San Fran in playoff games, which … isn’t ideal. San Francisco’s defense will feast on Minnesota’s injury-riddled offensive line, making it difficult for the Vikings to sustain a drive. The margin for error in a game like that is slim to none. It also doesn’t help that Sean McVay doesn’t have a good record against Kyle Shanahan, and Minnesota basically hired a McVay clone. I feel less than optimistic about Minnesota’s chances of making it past the divisional round if the Vikings play the 49ers.
Yet there is still a glimmer of hope that the Vikings take back the second seed. Kevin O’Connell knows this and plans to play most of the starters against the Chicago Bears. I understand why O’Connell is doing this. You can’t build a winning culture if you take games off, and there is still a desire to get the second seed and guarantee home-field advantage through the divisional round.
I don’t see that actually happening. The Niners host the Arizona Cardinals, who are without Kyler Murray. David Blough will be starting under center for Arizona, and they poached him off the Vikings’ practice squad a couple of weeks ago. Arizona is coming off a loss against the Atlanta Falcons. How do you expect me to believe they’ll beat the Niners on the road if they can’t beat the Falcons?
This is where I start to disagree with O’Connell’s decision to play the starters next week. Not only is it unlikely that the 49ers will lose next week, but the Chicago Bears are one of the worst teams in the league. It’s not far-fetched to think that Minnesota’s backups could beat Chicago. Not to mention, the grass at Soldier Field is perhaps the worst playing surface in the NFL, especially in January. The Vikings are injured to hell and back, so why risk losing one of your star players a week before the playoffs?
If the Vikings somehow get lucky and take back the second seed, they’d play the Packers, Lions, or Seattle Seahawks, and all those teams are tougher opponents than the Giants. The Packers have Aaron Rodgers, a strong run game, and a stout defense. The Lions have an elite offensive line, and their secondary likes to get physical in man coverage which could slow Jefferson down. The Seahawks have D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Kenneth Walker on offense, plus they have a young star cornerback in Tariq Woolen on defense.
The best possible outcome for the Vikings is to rest their starters against the Bears and let the chips fall where they may. If Christian Darrisaw gets hurt, I may black out with frustration.
