In an offseason defined by the shedding of bloated contracts and tough cuts of franchise veterans, the loss of Za’Darius Smith may be the most impactful.
His time in Minnesota was brief, and it may not have carried with it the emotional investment that came with players like Adam Thielen, Eric Kendricks, or Dalvin Cook. But for a defense that struggled mightily last season, losing one of the league leaders in pressure rate is certainly not the recipe for improvement.
Last week, I wrote about the wide receiver room. I argued that, despite losing Thielen, the combination of scheme familiarity, young up-and-coming talent, and Justin Jefferson’s continued ascendance have Minnesota’s receivers poised for a big step forward in 2023.
And I’d love to tell you I felt the same about the defensive front. That losing Za’Darius Smith is no big deal and that the likes of Patrick Jones II and Luiji Vilain were ready to step right into his shoes. But that’s simply not the case.
Any way you spin it, losing Za’Darius stinks.
But how bad is it? And what does this mean for new defensive coordinator Brian Flores and his reclamation project that is the 2023 defense?
Let’s start by looking back at last year. As a whole, the defense was disappointing in just about every category: 31st in yards allowed, 29th in points allowed, 29th in yards per play, and 30th in yards per passing attempt. Those are just a few stats that paint a picture of one of the worst 13-win defenses in NFL history.
The secondary struggled mightily. The linebackers played slow and out of position. Arguably the one consistent bright spot of the Ed Donatell defense was solid production from his two star pass rushers, Za’Darius Smith and Danielle Hunter.
Smith and Hunter combined for 20.5 sacks last season and boasted pressure rates that were even more impressive than the sack number suggests. Both are elite pass rushers in their own right, but it was working in tandem that made them so effective. As you can see in the clip below, a lot of Smith’s early-season production came when given opportunities when Hunter commanded extra attention to his side of the formation.
Smith was elite on plays where he could move around the formation and abuse interior linemen in space on third down. Hunter also benefited greatly from having a legitimate counterpart to keep defenses from shading extra linemen his way without paying for it. That back and forth played out to great success, a bright spot in 2022.
Hunter and Smith weren’t alone, of course. Harrison Phillips was incredibly effective in his first year in purple. He was a force in the interior run game and effective enough as a pass rusher. If the quality play of the defensive front last year has any hope of sustaining in 2023, Phillips will almost certainly be a key ingredient again.
But one of the most unsettling issues about losing Smith is the lack of developed depth behind him. The drop-off from Minnesota’s first to second string up front in 2022 was stark. DJ Wonnum occasionally flashed, but he took a significant step back in playing time and production. Khyiris Tonga held his own as a space eater inside, but he had a largely nondescript season. The only other notable defensive lineman, veteran Dalvin Tomlinson, also departed after an injury-plagued season.
So, as we look ahead to 2023, how can Flores make up for that loss in production?
The easy first answer is the shiny new off-season acquisition, former New Orleans Saints defensive end Marcus Davenport.
Davenport had a tumultuous career in New Orleans, with flashes of brilliance often offset by injury. The Saints drafted Davenport, an athletic freak out of UTSA, in the hope of developing his size/speed combination into an elite pass rush. However, he left Saints fans wanting.
Davenport has never had more than 10 sacks in a single season in his five years as a pro and registered less than five sacks for three of those years. Even if his athletic profile makes him an exciting investment by Kwesi Adofo-Mensah, this essentially amounts to a mildly expensive one-year prove-it deal. And unless Davenport takes a tremendous leap, he’ll be a significant downgrade from Za’Darius Smith.
This is where hiring defensive coordinator Flores becomes essential. If the Vikings’ defense has any hope of generating a consistent pass rush, Flores will need to get creative.
Hunter is still elite when healthy. Hopefully, the Vikings will use some of their accrued cap space to lock him down long-term and keep him motivated. Phillips and the rest of the interior rotation will need to play stout and eat up double teams. And after that? They’re gonna need to blitz. A lot.
Luckily Flores is no stranger to pressure packages, and not every blitz needs to bring the whole house. But I’d expect Flores to bring five men (or more) more often than not this season. With a young secondary to compensate for, Flores will likely opt to put them in a difficult situation for a short stint rather than have them get abused trying to cover for ages due to an impotent pass rush.
Stunts, twists, and exotic packages are going to be the name of the game, and the rest of the defense is going to need to get comfortable in Cover 1 and Cover 0 to compensate.
That said, there’s some exciting potential there to move Hunter around the formation, much like Smith did. Hunter has the speed and power to rush inside, and the combination of Davenport and Phillips (along with whoever else comes in blitzing) should be enough to ensure a few isolated opportunities to rush one-on-one for Hunter.
The Vikings defense has much to prove and even more room for improvement in 2023. But without a pair of elite bookend pass rushers, the entire defensive approach will need to shift from what we’ve seen in the past. Flores has a history of getting much out of little in his career (just ask any Miami Dolphins fan), and he’ll need every bit of that experience to keep this unit productive in his first season.
