To add to the disappointment of the Minnesota Vikings’ loss to the Kansas City Chiefs, the team placed star WR Justin Jefferson on IR Tuesday with a hamstring injury that he suffered during the game.
By missing at least four games, Jefferson creates a massive hole that the team needs to fill. He’s the NFL’s leader in receiving yards in 2022 and currently third in 2023. Highly paid TE T.J. Hockenson will help fill in some of that gap, but answers also need to come from the receiver group. K.J. Osborn has played over 90% of the snaps for the Vikings so far this year, but he’s a tertiary option in the passing game. The team will primarily be counting on rookie first-round pick Jordan Addison, who has played about two-thirds of the snaps this year, to step up and assume a full time role at WR to help replace Jefferson.
Addison has been fairly productive as a change-up in an offense that heavily features Jefferson. He’s eclipsed 50 receiving yards in four out of five games, and finished with six receptions for 64 yards and a TD on a season-high nine targets in Week 5. He’s been a strong performer for a rookie, but does he have the capacity to step up and fill in a bigger role? I went to the tape to investigate.
Play speed
Addison opened his career by scoring long TDs in each of his first two games. Against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, he showed that speed on a 39-yard score. On the play below, he’s able to outrun the safety, who is late because he was focusing on Justin Jefferson, and ends up wide open for a TD:
Against the Philadelphia Eagles, Addison also punished the defense when they committed too many resources to stopping JJ, winning on a post against the backside corner:
Both of the plays above are impressive, and we should commend Addison’s speed. However, they also share the common theme of being aided by a defense that was committed to stopping Jefferson, a situation I theorized Addison would thrive in. Will that hold up when teams focus on him? There are going to be ways to stop Addison running vertical with additional safety help. However, he shows great acceleration across the field that will help him win on crossers that the Vikings love to run.
Take the play below, his TD against the Chiefs, as an example. The Chiefs are running a red-zone blitz with man coverage that plays out similar to Cover 1 Rat. The CB on Addison at the snap plays with outside leverage, and if Addison crosses the field, No. 6 Bryan Cook is supposed to take on that responsibility in man coverage. Addison’s speed is too much for Cook, and he ends up wide open for a TD on the back line.
Speed is a great asset for a WR, but many fast receivers failing in the league have proven that it’s not the only factor. Let’s take a look at some of Addison’s other traits that will help him fill in Jefferson’s shoes.
route running
Addison has shown a high level of route-running prowess throughout his time in Minnesota, and he has a number of great examples against the Chiefs.
The comeback below is a great example, and shows a couple of layers to the route. Addison has efficient footwork on the outside release, and threatens heavily in the vertical phase of the route. That gets the CB in chase mode, and sets him up for Addison to stop and come back to the ball. Addison turns incredibly quickly for any receiver, and it creates two to three yards of separation.
Addison didn’t drift toward the sideline, which is another key on this route. It allowed ample space for Kirk Cousins to place the throw, which ended up a little inside. Addison adjusted for a catch through contact:
Addison’s ability to sell vertical, and break quickly to separate against corners on the outside has regularly shown up. He is awesome at running out routes, as can be seen in the below comparison with Justin Jefferson:
Addison’s change of direction skills are also clear on short routes, like on this now return route on a fourth down against the Chiefs. Addison is able to change direction by making a sharp cut that causes the DB to slip, and ends up wide open for a first down.
Releases against press
Addison’s size was a big concern coming out of school, and he has struggled against press at the NFL level. He’s had a couple of wins, so let’s look at what he’s done to beat it in some instances.
On this first play, Addison is the point man in a bunch at the bottom of the screen. He is pressed immediately at the snap, and his route, a post, requires him to get downfield quickly. He displays efficient footwork, taking one step before dipping his shoulder and ripping under the press attempt, getting vertical and past the slot CB. Addison also gets contacted by the outside CB, but feels that and avoids it, getting vertical down the field in a play that could have been a wide-open TD if Kirk had waited for the (also open) first read dig by JJ to suck the safety in.
The next play is also a nice win by Addison, who is running an under route. It’s an in-breaking route and Addison must release inside, which is difficult because the CB has inside leverage. He does a great job of threatening outside, and then quickly jumps inside while swiping the CB’s arm out of the way. He then sells hard vertical before cutting inside and making the catch:
The above plays are strong positives. Unfortunately, they have not been the norm for Addison through five weeks. The Chiefs bullied him regularly, like on the three reps below:
To help Addison, the Vikings will need to work to shield him against getting pressed on a regular basis moving forward. He can stand up to press occasionally, but I would recommend that they used him as a Z receiver, and move Osborn, a stouter player, over to Jefferson’s role at X. That doesn’t mean Osborn will get Jefferson’s target share, but the offense will have to adjust to route concepts and play calls that focus on targeting the Z receiver over the X receiver.
blocking
Fans have been frustrated with Osborn out-snapping Addison so far this year, but the reason is clear. Addison has been subpar in blocking situations, and his play strength is the reason why.
On the play below, Addison is competitive, but he doesn’t get the job done as a blocker. The throw behind Osborn slows down his ability to transition upfield, but the CB that Addison is blocking is also able to fight through the block to get to the ball:
Similarly, Addison had a hard time staying latched to a defender on the Alexander Mattison run below against the Panthers:
The Vikings shielded Jefferson, who is a solid blocker, from having a significant blocking role to reduce the number of hits he was taking. Since Osborn is still available and great and the dirty work of blocking, I expect the Vikings to still give him difficult blocking assignments and shield Addison from blocking moving forward.
conclusion
With Justin Jefferson missing significant time, the Minnesota Vikings are going to ask their rookie first round pick, Jordan Addison, to step up at WR. Addison has shown a lot of promise throughout five weeks. He has good speed, is a great route runner, and has shown sure hands, with zero drops in 27 targets, per PFF.
Because he has shown the ability to get open with route running, Addison’s game should stand up to taking on a full time role. However, he’s not a well-rounded player at this point. He shows some positives but generally struggles against press, and has been a negative as a blocker. He will need some help to avoid getting pressed, and should not be asked to take on a significant role blocking.
Hopefully, Addison’s game will benefit from being pushed into a full time role. Minnesota’s offense will likely suffer in the short term without one of the best players in the game on the field, but it could benefit the team in the long term if giving Addison more responsibility helps him improve his game.
