With less than a week before the Minnesota Vikings open their season, football fanatics everywhere are abuzz.
It has nothing to do with the first SKOL chant of the year or Brian Flores unveiling his defense. Nor does it have to do with blowing the Gjallarhorn until Baker Mayfield’s ears bleed. Instead, all eyes are focused on TCO Performance Center, where negotiations are taking place for Justin Jefferson’s next contract.
Vikings fans are looking for a puff of white smoke, or maybe just a bright reflection from Jefferson’s grill at the sight of his new deal. But even if he doesn’t put pen to paper, Minnesota’s offseason has been a success.
Let’s go back to where this offseason began. The Vikings began as an old, battered team. Daniel Jones and the New York Giants ran circles around them in a Wild Card loss, and there were plenty of questions surrounding the team’s direction. Locking Jefferson up was one of the top priorities on Kwesi Adofo-Mensah’s to-do list, but it wasn’t as important as setting this team up for future success.
The old regime Rick Spielman spearheaded probably would have looked at the previous year as a massive success. While it’s hard to argue against that, it would have impacted Minnesota’s offseason, holding on to high-priced veterans and hoping they could take one last step toward the Super Bowl.
But the new regime is different in realizing that they needed to undergo some massive changes to move forward.
Eric Kendricks was the heart and soul of the Vikings defense, but after a few years the writing was on the wall. The Vikings could have kept Kendricks around for one more season in a Ray Lewis “last ride” sort of way, but they opted to move on, clearing cap space and paving the way for Brian Asamoah.
The Vikings felt an added shockwave of the Kendricks move later in the offseason when they signed Ivan Pace Jr. as an undrafted free agent. Pace could have made his way onto the roster if Kendricks were still on the time. However, it would have been much more difficult if the veteran was taking up a roster spot.
With Pace in the fold, the Vikings have some of the speed they lacked a year ago, which was a similar theme with Thielen and the wide receiver position.
Thielen had one of the best origin stories in Vikings history (did you hear he’s from Detroit Lakes?). However, it was clear that his best days were behind him. With his last 1,000-yard season coming in 2018, you could make a similar case for Thielen to ride off into the sunset like Joe Mauer did with the Twins. But the Vikings went a different route.
With Thielen gone, they moved to replace him by selecting Jordan Addison in the draft. In many ways, Addison’s game resembles Thielen as a shifty route runner who can create separation. But with Thielen aging, it didn’t have the same effect, leading the Vikings to trade for T.J. Hockenson last October.
The other change came in the backfield, where Dalvin Cook had to move on to greener (specifically, New York Jets Kelly green) pastures. Cook became the second running back in Vikings history to run for 1,100 yards in four-straight seasons. However, his efficiency left something more, and his $10 million base salary eliminated the kind of flexibility the Vikings were hoping to create.
After a long standoff, the Vikings released Cook and turned the backfield over to Alexander Mattison. Mattison doesn’t have the name recognition of his predecessor, but he carries a $3 million salary, which allows the Vikings to invest their money elsewhere.
That eventually paid off when the Vikings arrived at training camp. Hockenson’s ear infection, sore back, and a “hold in” made some noise in the early days of camp. However, Hockenson’s market-setting contract not only locked in a good player, but it gave them more flexibility down the road.
You may believe that the Vikings should have spent that money immediately on Jefferson, and it would be hard to argue with that point. But even if they can’t reach an agreement, both sides can wait in an effort to get what they want out of a potential deal.
That means more flexibility for the Vikings. They have done a good job finding low-value free agents and hoping they can turn them into cornerstones. However, they’ve been very protective toward locking into long-term deals. That’s why the negotiations for Hockenson and Jefferson went so long.
Even in Hockenson’s case, the Vikings set the deal up so that they don’t lose some of their flexibility. Hockenson’s contract reset the market with $66 million over four seasons, but it only contains guaranteed money over the first two years of the deal.
If Hockenson performs to the level they’re expecting, both sides can go back to the table when Hockenson is slated for a $15.1 million cap hit in 2025. That way, the Vikings can maintain the flexibility they’ve been looking to create this offseason.
That’s where this gets back to Jefferson. While Jefferson would love to sign a contract extension now, it almost benefits him to play this season out.
Think of this as a poker player seeing the flop. If nobody bids, there’s no reason to push your chips to the middle of the table. You’re already going to get more information with the next card, and you can use that information to your advantage later in the hand.
For Jefferson, that means seeing what other players are going to get in their new deals. Nick Bosa is seeking to become the highest-paid non-quarterback in the NFL, while CeeDee Lamb is also on deck for a lucrative extension from the Dallas Cowboys. Jefferson’s price tag will only continue to go up, and it benefits Jefferson more to sign for maximum value in a year than lock himself into a deal right now.
There’s also the matter of the quarterback position, which could also have more clarity next season. With the assumption that Cousins is seeking a fully guaranteed deal, the Vikings have held off to see what options are available next spring and coming up with a solution.
Signing Jefferson could limit their availability when it comes to quarterback, and Jefferson may want to see what the Vikings do instead of locking himself into a deal.
That’s why neither side needs to get a deal done right now to ensure a successful offseason. If the Vikings balk, they can use that money to create an even better environment for Jefferson that would entice him to sign on the dotted line. If Jefferson balks, he can use some of the bigger contracts as leverage to get a few extra dollars.
It won’t be for the faint of heart. But it’s not the end-all, be-all that many assumed Jefferson’s contract to be at the beginning of the season.
