Last week, the Minnesota Vikings went into one of the most important drafts in franchise history. They had been stuck in mediocrity. They won 13 games last year but at no point were they considered Super Bowl contenders.
This was the draft to change that.
The Vikings had been linked to several quarterbacks in the draft, and fans wanted a splash. Trading up for Anthony Richardson had been mentioned as a possibility, but adding a game-changing cornerback or another prospect had to be on everyone’s radar.
When the draft concluded, the Vikings came away with six new players, but none of them captured the imagination of the fan base. If you’re exhausted at the thought of a nine- or 10-win season and another division title banner hung in TCO Performance Center, you’re not alone. But this draft class isn’t about what they could build in 2023. It’s about building a foundation to win down the road.
To understand, you have to go back to when the Vikings hired Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and Kevin O’Connell. It’s not certain that the Wilfs issued a mandate to run the entire roster back, but it seemed like Minnesota’s new brain trust wanted to find out what its ceiling was. The answer was 13 wins and an NFC North title — and also a first-round exit in the playoffs. The loss put them back where they started, which explains several moves they made early in the offseason.
The Vikings got worse when they released Eric Kendricks and Adam Thielen, even though they were on the wrong side of 30. They also got worse when Dalvin Tomlinson and Patrick Peterson left in free agency. The Vikings stopped the bleeding when they signed Marcus Davenport and Byron Murphy Jr. in free agency, although those seemed like cosmetic moves to prevent the team from hitting rock bottom.
It started with Jordan Addison, who was one of the top prospects in a draft that was deemed to have little depth at wide receiver. The Vikings waited until the third round and traded back before selecting Mekhi Blackmon. If he pans out, Blackmon can become a serviceable cornerback.
The Vikings took the type of versatile role player Brian Flores prefers in Jay Ward and a replacement for Tomlinson in Jaquelin Roy. Jaren Hall is probably a long-term backup or emergency option if they can’t re-sign Kirk Cousins. The most exciting pick may have come in the seventh round, where DeWayne McBride could become the head of a backfield committee.
There’s nothing wrong with any of these picks, but none of these selections made you scream, “HERE COME THE VIKINGS!” In reality, there wasn’t a prospect available who could make that happen.
Let’s say the Vikings wanted to trade up for Richardson. For that to happen, Minnesota would have had to move up to the third-overall pick, because the Indianapolis Colts selected him fourth overall.
The Houston Texans gave up a first- and second-round pick in this year’s draft and a first- and third-round pick in 2024 to make the deal with the Arizona Cardinals to move up from pick No. 12 to pick No. 3. If we assume the Texans will have the same selections in next year’s draft, the trade was 2,502 points over value according to the Fitzgerald-Spielberger chart at Over The Cap.
Because the Vikings had pick 23, they would have had to give up even more. That would have been pretty difficult after trading this year’s second-round pick for T.J. Hockenson last fall.
Even then, the Vikings could have made their splash by selecting a quarterback at No. 23. However, Hendon Hooker and Will Levis came with concerns that made them far from a sure thing. Selecting either quarterback would have been another step toward the future, but neither likely would have vaulted Minnesota over its competition in the NFC.
The division may have gotten worse over the weekend when the Green Bay Packers traded Aaron Rodgers to the New York Jets. To protect Jordan Love in his big moment, the Packers drafted two tight ends, Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft, to beef up the running game. The defense may have gotten better with first-round pick Lukas Van Ness. Still, history would have to repeat itself for Love to take the North from the Vikings.
The Detroit Lions came into this draft with plenty of draft capital but burned it in true Dan Campbell fashion. Their first pick was running back Jahmyr Gibbs at 12th overall and their second pick was a linebacker in a league where teams are using glorified safeties at the position. After finishing it off with tight end Sam LaPorta, the Lions didn’t add anything to their ceiling even as Vegas crowns them as the favorites to win the division.
Then there are the Chicago Bears, who are in a similar position to where the Packers are. The Bears went into the draft adding overall talent to a depleted roster but were more focused on stockpiling draft picks for 2024. Doing so serves two purposes. The Bears could use that capital to move up for a top quarterback in next year’s draft or build around Justin Fields in a class that should have more overall talent. This is great for Chicago’s future, but it isn’t likely to lead to success in 2023.
That leaves the Vikings with a good chance to repeat as division champions. But they’re still behind compared to some of the other favorites in the conference. The San Francisco 49ers still need a quarterback but have an infrastructure that could carry Brock Purdy, Sam Darnold, or Trey Lance to the Super Bowl. The Philadelphia Eagles spent their weekend like Captain America assembling The Avengers, but it was just Howie Roseman re-assembling the Georgia defense in the NFL. Regardless, they have enough firepower throughout the roster to make a return trip to the Super Bowl.
The Vikings could get past the New York Giants, Dallas Cowboys, or whoever stands in their way as a first-round opponent. But the odds of these draft picks pushing them over the likes of the Eagles and 49ers aren’t good.
That may lead you to believe that Minnesota’s draft class will be a failure, but that’s not what this offseason has been about. It’s about erasing years of bad decisions and replacing them with good ones that can lead a long-term foundation of winning without clearing everyone out.
Even if the rest of the 2023 class turns out to be role players, that can set the Vikings up for success as they add pieces in the next couple of seasons. That’s a better alternative to dragging through a 2-15 season and can give Vikings fans hope for this draft class – even if it’s a couple of years down the road.
