Immediately after the 2023 NFL Draft, the Minnesota Vikings signed a horde of undrafted free agents (UDFAs), including Ivan Pace Jr. from Cincinnati. They gave him $236,000, which was tied for the fifth-most out of all UDFAs this year. It was a part of the Vikings’ spending spree on UDFAs. They gave edge rusher Andre Carter II $340,000, a massive guarantee for an undrafted player, and handed out a league-leading $1.15 million in total guarantees to UDFAs.
Pace played his final college season at Cincinnati after transferring from Miami (OH). Many pundits considered him to be a draft-worthy prospect. He was ranked 151st on Arif Hasan’s Consensus Board, which is solidly in the fifth-round range. Pace was a very productive player in his final season, recording 136 total tackles, 20.5 tackles for loss, and nine sacks as a senior. He also wasn’t that old of a prospect considering that he was a fourth-year senior. Therefore, age does not explain Pace’s fall. He is younger than all of Minnesota’s draft picks except Jordan Addison and DeWayne McBride.
Pace’s fall in the draft is likely because he’ll have to change his role in the NFL. While he played most of his snaps off the ball, and ostensibly played middle linebacker for the Bearcats, that listing belies his role. Pace rushed the passer on most of his snaps and often lined up three yards off the ball. Cincinnati played a three-down defense with no edge rusher, and Pace was primarily the fourth pass rusher on the defense. However, that style isn’t prevalent in the NFL, and Pace’s size (5’10 1/2″ and 231 lbs. with 30 1/4″ arms) doesn’t lend itself to being a true pass rusher at the next level.
From an athletic testing standpoint, Pace performed decently. His 4.62-second 40-yard dash is not as fast as some of the game’s freak athletes at the linebacker position, but it’s still more than adequate. Eric Kendricks played with great range in his prime, and he ran a 4.61. Pace’s 35″ vertical and 9’8″ broad jump are not elite for the position, but are certainly adequate. His size mostly drags down his RAS score. Pace cannot change his height, but at 231 lbs. he is actually a fairly dense player for his size. The NFL is also trending towards lighter LBs than the 250 lb. players who were common in the mid-2000s. For example, the Denver Broncos took Drew Sanders in the third round, and he only weighs 235 lbs. At 6’4″, he’s almost 6” taller than Pace, and Pace is a much denser player than Sanders.
With Pace’s size limitations and likely role change in the NFL, I watched his college tape to see how he might fit in Brian Flores‘ defense. I was able to watch his entire 2022 season, excluding Cincinnati’s bowl game.
Let’s dive into the scouting report:
Pass Rush
Pace is a smaller player, but he showed a number of techniques as a pass rusher that will work at the NFL level on blitzes against tight ends, running backs, and slower interior offensive linemen. I don’t expect him to be lining up against and beating tackles in the NFL. However, Pace shows good hand usage with power and natural leverage. Below are some of the moves that make him effective.
In the video below, Pace shows the ability to execute a ghost rush, which fits well with his size. He gets low really easily, and his explosion off the snap allows him to dip low and run around defenders, like on this pressure against Arkansas where he is lined up over the LG:
Pace’s quickness is his best attribute as a pass rusher. By lining up between the right guard and right guard then shifting to the left side, he can threaten to square up against linemen and then quickly sidestep. That will leave them behind the eight ball in the half-man relationship and force them to lunge. Pace then rips underneath his opponent, turning the corner to get after the QB:
Pace is behind the 3t hidden by the goal post in the clip below, and showcases a swim move to win with his hands:
Pace has the will to fight to the QB even if he gets taken towards the ground. He will crawl to get to the QB’s feet like on this play. Lined up over the LG, he executes a club rip:
One of the exciting things about Pace’s game is how he creates pressure on play calls that will be in the Vikings’ playbook. Cincinnati ran stunts that were similar to what the Vikings will run in their Sub Odd front. In the play below, Pace is the nose guard executing a “TEX” stunt, and as the crasher shows great bend to get around the blocker and pressure the QB. Usually, stunts are meant for the looper to come free, but Pace has the burst to create pressure as a crasher:
Here is another play with Pace succeeding as a looper, on a RAM stunt. As the nose, he brings the QB down for the sack:
With 54 total pressures from 2022, there are too many to go over here. Check out this compilation of his pass rush pressures to see more:
But Pace’s frame creates significant downside as a rusher. With just 30 1/4″ arms, he is not long enough to threaten opponents with length. That showed up in the college game, and will recur more frequently in the NFL, where opposing linemen will be more skilled and can get their hands on him to shut him down. On the play below, Pace rushes against the opposing LT. He tries multiple moves with his hands but cannot gain any ground because the opponent is able to replace his hands effectively and lock him out with length. NFL tackles will do this on a consistent basis:
Pace’s size was also a problem when it comes to weight. Some opponents will be 100-plus lbs. heavier than he is and can overpower him easily. He has good pad level, but at some point, sheer weight takes over:
Explosiveness
Explosion was the biggest reason Pace was successful in college. He has an incredibly quick first step, and it often helped him get by opposing linemen nearly untouched, as seen in the compilation above. His alignment, closer to the line of scrimmage than a typical LB, helped too. However, Pace deserves a lot of the credit for consistently timing snaps well and having the burst to beat linemen.
That burst also showed up in the run game, like on the play below where he, lined up over the RG, gets to a spot faster than multiple linemen to tackle the RB for a run stop:
This impressive burst also allows him to do things like split double teams from linemen to get in on tackles:
Range
Pace shows true sideline-to-sideline range throughout his tape. One of the most impressive plays was when he covered both parts of an option pitch against Navy. Taking care of both the QB and the RB on a pitch is extremely difficult to do.
Pace’s range also extends to coverage. There were reps of him carrying TEs up the seam. Defending the seam is one of the more difficult assignments you can ask from an LB in coverage. In the play below, Pace is lined up over the RG initially in a blitz mug then crosses the formation to get back and carry the TE up the seam:
Here is a compilation of Pace showing off his sideline-to-sideline range:
Pace’s effective range caused Cincinnati to use him as a QB spy. Naturally, many of those reps turned into him just keeping his eye in the backfield, and I believe they comprise a large number of his 267 “coverage” snaps as charted by PFF. Here are a few plays where he was particularly effective as a spy:
Pace is not perfect with his range. Some of the best athletes in the NFL, like Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray, may be able to get around him. As an example, he is unable to bring down the UCF QB in the video below after starting between the C and RG:
Physicality
Pace plays extremely physically, especially considering his size. He is fearless taking on blockers, and it allows him to play above his weight class. He also regularly makes big hits on ball-carriers and QBs.
Pace will use his physicality to take on direct blocks from linemen, like the down block from the RG on this play. The run is successful because the defense is out-gapped. However, Pace, lined up over the LG, does a good job of controlling his gap responsibility against a block from a lineman:
Pace knows that even if he can initially be physical with his opponent, he needs to disengage quickly or he will be overwhelmed. He has various ways to do that, including a spin off of that initial hit, lined up over the RG:
It’s important for Pace to disengage, because when he doesn’t, he will eventually get overpowered by his opponent. Here, the RT puts him the dirt:
I mentioned Pace splitting double teams earlier. But, lined up over the RG, he will get knocked back quickly if asked to face them head on:
Still, I would say that Pace is very good at shedding opposing linemen, especially for a player of his size. He has the physicality to play LB in the NFL. Check out the compilation below:
Pace’s size will occasionally lead to him getting dragged for extra yardage by opponents. He doesn’t always have great stopping power. On the play below, the QB is able to fall forward for three yards from the point of contact at the four-yard line to the one-yard line, a critical field position gain:
Still, Pace’s aggressive play style leads to some fun, hard hits on his tape. At the next level, he will need to watch out for roughing the passer, particularly in landing with his body weight on the QB. Here is a compilation of some big hits:
Instincts
One of Pace’s best attributes is his preternatural ability to work though bodies in traffic to get to the ball-carrier. Pace regularly avoided blockers at the second level, a skill that not all players have. Here’s a cut up of him working through traffic:
Pace also shows a clear understanding of how to read run plays by opponents. He will follow pulling guards and TEs and change his gap responsibilities to match their pulls. Check out the impressive play below, where he is lined up between the RG and RT, reads the pulling players and moves outside, then splits the pullers to make the tackle. That’s high-level execution:
Despite clearly showing that he can read out plays and understands his gap responsibilities, Pace will too often abandon his gap because he thinks he can make a play. He likes to freelance and go back-door to get around linemen and try to make a tackle rather than holding his gap on the play side. That’s similar to shooting the gap for a linebacker, and should only be done if the player can make the play. I believe part of the reason Pace attempts this is his lack of size. Rather than directly take on linemen, he tries to go around them, and the path of least resistance leads away from the run. However, this abandonment will often lead to successful runs for the opponent.
On the play below, Pace, lined up over the RG, makes the center’s job very easy. Pace should be covering the A gap to the right side of the line, but jumps to the A gap to the left. The NT is already controlling this gap. Pace trying to go around the C leads to a wide hole for the RB. The LB from the back side of the play has to track over and make the tackle 10 yards downfield:
This issue happens on a consistent basis. Here is a compilation of Pace abandoning his gap responsibility:
Tackling
Pace shows the ability to tackle well. He can wrap defenders, is tenacious holding on to ankle tackles and will track opponents well. Here is a quality wrap for a tackle:
Pace can also work in tandem with other defenders, understanding where his help is and targeting the opponents’ shoulder effectively:
However, Pace too often has lapses in his tackling technique where he will not wrap or ends up missing a tackle. Per PFF, he missed 18 tackles in 2022, at a 13.7% rate that was well above average for college LBs. Here is a sample of those plays:
One positive of Pace’s missed tackles is that they were often set to become positive plays if he made them, and the tackle attempt often redirected the runner into other teammates to limit the gain.
Pass Coverage
As I mentioned above, Pace had more limited pass-coverage responsibilities, and in those reps he was often asked to be a spy. Still, Pace does have some reps of playing in underneath zones and man coverage to the flats.
Pace, the LB closer to the camera, shows a good rep mirroring the QB’s eyes with no one in his zone on this rep:
In zones, Pace will display a feel for routes behind him. Here, starting at the edge of the box, he widens out and gets under the curl/dig from the slot receiver:
Pace can also carry players up the seam, as shown above, or cover RBs in man in the flats, like in the below:
Pace’s coverage feel is inconsistent, and he can get manipulated. In the play below, he’s the LB closest to the camera and widens too far based on the QB looking outside. That allows a slant to be completed behind him:
Pace showed some ball skills, doing a nice job of covering the opposing TE and then guarding his face once the ball got there, getting his hand up to force an incompletion:
Pace ran into issues where he was too hesitant in coverage and perhaps unsure of his responsibilities, allowing the TD here:
Despite his height, Pace was able to elevate and deflect a couple of throws that were over his head:
In limited reps, Pace showed the ability to become a good coverage player. Hopefully the mental side shows up with the processing that can be seen on tape, and he can improve some of his indecision and act faster in coverage if he is asked to focus more on that role.
Summary
Ivan Pace Jr. is an electric player who consistently plays with a high level of energy and effort. In his primary role as a pass rusher, he showed an excellent get-off and a variety of moves to beat opposing linemen. At the NFL level, Pace’s size will limit his pure pass-rush potential, but he has good experience as a blitzer and on stunts.
In run defense, Pace will take on players who are much larger than him with violent hands. He has a number of tactics to disengage but will become overpowered if he has to hold his ground against blockers. Pace ends up on the ground often as he tries to explode past blocks but loses his balance. This frequently results in him redirecting the flow of plays, so it’s not the end of the world. He reads plays well, following pullers and often finding the correct gaps. Pace works through traffic to get to the ball carrier with ease and has sideline-to-sideline speed. Because of his lack of size, he will too often try to cheat gaps and end up leaving holes for the runner. He shows the ability to wrap and tackle, but inconsistencies led to a high number of missed tackles.
In pass coverage, Pace excelled as a QB spy, tracking down scrambling QBs and earning pass deflections. He is a work in progress in other areas and lacks experience in anything but basic zones. He shows the ability to cover RBs in the flats, and he will carry opposing players to the second level. Pace can read and follow the QB’s eyes to the ball, but he can also be duped and manipulated by the QB. When targeted, he shows an understanding of where to put his hands based on his positioning and earned a pass deflection.
Vikings Fit
For the Vikings, it’s clear to see the role that Ivan Pace Jr. can earn early in his career. As a blitz package player and QB spy, Pace fits neatly into Flores’ defense in the Odd Mac 0 package and with the overload blitz schemes. A proficient pass rusher who has the chops to take on opposing linemen, but maybe not every play, Pace could be a great asset as a blitzer.
To earn that role, Pace will likely need to contribute on special teams while he learns a more traditional off-ball LB position. He will need to improve his tackling to make it on ST. The standard position he may eventually play with the Vikings will require him to play one to two yards further off the ball, and ask him to be more consistent in reading his keys and playing assignment sound. He should also progress as a pass coverage player as time goes on.
