Many people didn’t understand why the Minnesota Vikings released Dalvin Cook last summer.
Cook was one of the greatest running backs in franchise history. He was one of two running backs, alongside the already legendary Adrian Peterson, to post 1,100 yards in three consecutive seasons. He was a locker room leader and an anchor of the offense.
Many believed that losing him was a big blow, but the Vikings had a succession plan in mind. They would re-sign Alexander Mattison and draft DeWayne McBride. With Ty Chandler and Kene Nwangwu chipping in, they would have a running game based on efficiency instead of explosiveness and open up more options for Kevin O’Connell as a playcaller.
The thought was great in theory, but the execution just hasn’t been there.
The Vikings enter Week 10 tied with the Pittsburgh Steelers and New England Patriots for the sixth-worst rushing attack in the NFL with 3.7 yards per attempt. Only the Denver Broncos have fewer rushing touchdowns than the Vikings this season — that would be one and two, respectively. And an injury to Cam Akers leaves the running game paper-thin heading into the second half of the season.
The trade deadline has passed, and there is a shallow free-agent pool, so there aren’t many ways to solve the problem this season. But newly-acquired quarterback Josh Dobbs can do serious damage with his legs. And his mobility could help solve Minnesota’s ground game and give them an element they haven’t had in decades.
It starts with the Vikings’ issues with the running game.
Mattison was expected to be the front-runner in this committee, but the supporting pieces never materialized during training camp. McBride never found his footing, and Chandler hasn’t been able to get on the field. Nwangwu was second on the depth chart throughout the offseason but missed all of training camp with a back injury. That left Mattison as the bell cow in the backfield.
It’s hard to believe that the Vikings had this in mind when they brought Mattison back. With Cook the starter one year ago, Mattison logged a career-low 74 carries in 2022 and produced a modest 3.8 yards per carry.
Those numbers weren’t great, but Mattison’s success rate was the same as Cook’s at 47.3%. Pro Football Reference defines success rate as picking up at least 40% of yards on first down, 60% of yards on second down, and 100% of yards on third or fourth down.
The Vikings would have had to pay Cook $14 million, and they saw an opportunity to get younger and cheaper. It just hasn’t panned out. Mattison’s success rate this season (41.8%) is almost identical to Cook’s (41.9%). Still, only Saquon Barkley has a lower success rate (40.5%) of all running backs with the same or more carries as Mattison (122).
Among backs with a minimum of 80 carries, only Jerome Ford (32.7%), Dameon Pierce (40.4%), Barkley, and Breece Hall (41.5%) have posted a lower success rate than Mattison this season.
But Mattison has also disappointed on a historical level for the Vikings. According to Pro Football Reference’s data going back to 1994, Mattison’s current success rate would be the 10th-lowest in franchise history among running backs with a minimum of 100 carries.
That isn’t the only measure of running game success. Robert Smith ran for 1,187 yards with a 39.8% success rate in 1998. But Mattison also hasn’t found efficiency either, averaging just 3.6 yards per carry. If we use Mattison’s projected total of 230 carries, he would log the third-lowest yards per attempt in franchise history, trailing Chuck Foreman’s 1978 season (3.2 yards per carry) and Bill Brown’s 1966 season (3.6 yards per carry).
Not all of this has been Mattison’s fault, but it hasn’t stopped the Vikings from pursuing other options. Minnesota traded for Akers before Week 3. However, he logged a 39.5% success rate in six games before tearing his Achilles in last week’s win over the Falcons.
Many of these options have been underwhelming, and the best solution going forward could be to think outside the box. That’s where Dobbs can make a difference as the type of dual-threat quarterback the Vikings haven’t had since Daunte Culpepper.
Dobbs ranks second among quarterbacks this season with 324 rushing yards, ranking seventh in franchise history behind Fran Tarkenton’s 376 rushing yards in 1966 and Daunte Culpepper in five straight seasons from 2000 to 2004.
While his 50% success rate ranks ninth among quarterbacks with a minimum of 30 carries this season, it’s a marked improvement over what the Vikings have used in the backfield. That could lead to an increase in efficiency and could be critical in Sunday’s game against the New Orleans Saints.
The Saints have had issues stopping running quarterbacks this season, allowing an average of 243 rushing yards allowed per game. While that total is the third-highest in the NFL, NOLA.com’s Luke Johnson noted that five quarterbacks have rushed for 30 yards or more against New Orleans this season.
Johnson continued to dive deeper into the problem, noting that five of the eight runs of 20 yards or more that the Saints have allowed this season have been by quarterbacks, and 14 of 43 quarterback runs have moved the chains, including eight on third and fourth down.
We’ve already seen Dobbs make an impact for the Vikings when he ran for 66 yards and a touchdown last week against the Falcons. Dobbs also set up the game-winning touchdown with a fourth-and-seven scramble before finding Brandon Powell three plays later. Dobbs’ running ability gives defenses pause and could help open up the running game. Mattison only logged 2.8 yards per attempt with Dobbs at quarterback last week. But the benefits could continue, especially if O’Connell mixes in zone-read concepts.
Dobbs’ presence creates an interesting dynamic the Vikings haven’t had in years, and it could be exactly what they need to get the efficiency they’ve been looking for from their running game.
