Most folks don’t want to hear this, but the Minnesota Vikings offense showed a lot of positivity on Saturday in their crushing 27-24 overtime defeat to the Cincinnati Bengals. Despite starting its fourth quarterback of the season in Nick Mullens, Kevin O’Connell‘s offense was pressing all the right buttons for most of the game. When Mullens wasn’t sabotaging himself and the team by playing hero ball and turning it over, the offense was consistently sustaining drives, moving the ball downfield, and putting themselves in position to conclude almost every possession with points. After the past two games against the Chicago Bears and Las Vegas Raiders, seeing a functioning NFL offense was a breath of fresh air.
Ty Chandler handled 23 of the 24 running back carries, produced 132 rushing yards (5.7 yards per carry), and hit paydirt. He also recorded 25 receiving yards with three receptions on four targets.
Minnesota’s three-headed monster of pass-catchers returned with Justin Jefferson‘s first complete game since Week 4. Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson made big plays throughout the afternoon. The trio combined for:
- 71.9% target share
- 258 of the 303 total receiving yards
- Two touchdowns courtesy of Addison
When Mullens played within himself, he was methodical and efficiently drove the offense — even if he got away with a few boneheaded decisions that probably should’ve resulted in additional turnovers. O’Connell put a lot on his plate, and Mullens responded by going:
- 26/33 (78.8 completion percentage)
- 303 passing yards
- two touchdowns
- two interceptions
- 99.9 passer rating
On the surface, that’s exactly the kind of complementary offensive recipe that leads to a hard-fought victory.
And then Minnesota’s lone possession in overtime happened. But before we open up that can of worms, let’s revisit how the Vikings found success against Lou Anarumo’s defense.
On Minnesota’s first drive, O’Connell reverted to his usual staple of featuring heavier personnel packages on the opening script. By leaning into 12-personnel (one running back, two tight ends, two receivers) and 21-personnel (two running backs, one tight end, and two receivers), he allowed Josh Oliver and/or C.J. Ham to get on the field and impact the running game. Chandler responded by amassing 30 rushing yards and a touchdown on seven carries. He also came down with a 16-yard reception on a third-and-one off a 22-personnel (two running backs, two tight ends, one receiver) play-action dump-off into the flat.
Minnesota’s offense was off and running. Historically, O’Connell tends to deviate from his opening-script reliance on heavy personnel packages and revert to his traditional 11-personnel (one running back, one tight end, three receivers) base offense. But instead of adhering to this tendency, O’Connell kept hitting the easy button, getting Oliver on the field and forcing Cincinnati to account for the running game properly, thus making life easier for Mullens.
Considering how much we’ve talked about untimely turnovers this season, I’ll spare you the details of Minnesota’s final two first-half drives that resulted in interceptions. But it must be mentioned that the Vikings left at least six points out on the field after both of Mullens’ interceptions occurred at Cincinnati’s one-yard and 30-yard lines.
On Minnesota’s opening drive of the second half, O’Connell again committed to his 12-personnel offense by featuring it on their first five plays. The plays were as follows:
- 24-yard run by Chandler
- three-yard run by Chandler
- 12-yard completion to Jefferson
- four-yard run by Chandler
- 10-yard completion to Addison
When Minnesota was facing third-and-eight from Cincinnati’s 37-yard line, O’Connell reverted to his 11-personnel base offense, and Addison made yet another game-altering play to put the Vikings up 14-3.
The Vikings clung to a 17-3 lead following a field goal on its ensuing possession. After Cincinnati responded with a touchdown and Minnesota went three-and-out, the Bengals tied it up with just under eight minutes remaining. And O’Connell generated a memorable drive by unapologetically leaning into even heavier personnel usage.
On its opening play of the drive, O’Connell presented a run-look by getting into 13-personnel (one running back, three tight ends, one receiver). Considering how well Minnesota was running the ball throughout the game, the Bengals had no choice but to bring an additional defender into the box. That presented a single-high coverage for Jefferson.
This is precisely what the Vikings had in mind by prioritizing Oliver on the opening day of free agency. Once the offense has demonstrated an ability to win up front in the run game, it allows Jefferson to operate more freely against favorable coverages. O’Connell dialed up a beautiful play-action concept off this 13-personnel with Jefferson running an intermediate dig that went for 19 yards.
Later in the drive, the Vikings faced a first-and-10 from Cincinnati’s 31-yard line. O’Connell sticks with 12-personnel by overloading the boundary with both Hockenson and Oliver. Mullens’ immediate pass-fake to Addison instills just enough hesitation by the Bengals and creates a sizeable cutback lane for Chandler to churn out 30 yards and give the Vikings first-and-goal from the Bengals’ one-yard line. Minnesota would take a 24-17 lead on the next play with just under four minutes remaining.
And then overtime happened.
After the defense forced a three-and-out, the offense got the ball back from Cincinnati’s 37-yard line. All the Vikings needed was a field goal to win the game. And, again, O’Connell started the drive by creating a single-high coverage with another 12-personnel play-action that resulted in a 12-yard completion to Hockenson over the middle.
Following an eight-yard completion to Hockenson two plays later on second-and-nine, Bengals head coach Zac Taylor called a timeout right before the Vikings hurried up to the line of scrimmage to attempt the quarterback sneak. As we all know by now, O’Connell called for the exact same 11-personnel quarterback sneak with 5’8″, 181 lb. Brandon Powell serving as the glorified tush-pusher. After failing to convert on third and fourth down, the Vikings gave the ball back to Cincinnati. The Bengals won the game a few plays later.
This next part is critical. In the postgame press conference, O’Connell mentioned that he elected to go with 11-personnel in those third- and fourth-down situations to keep Cincinnati from getting into a goal-line front. Oddly enough, O’Connell was in an eerily similar situation against Anarumo and the Bengals’ defense in Super Bowl LVI when he was the Los Angeles Rams’ offensive coordinator under Sean McVay.
The Rams were trailing 20-16 with about five minutes to go and were facing a third-and-one from their own 30-yard line. The Rams called for an 11-personnel run to Cam Akers that was stuffed at the line of scrimmage. Faced with a fourth-and-one, McVay and O’Connell properly adjusted and called for a jet sweep to Cooper Kupp to move the chains before their game-winning touchdown. Notice how Cincinnati appears to be in a goal-line front against LA’s 11-personnel on this fourth down?
Which begs the question: What led O’Connell to believe that 11-personnel would deter Anarumo from presenting a goal line front when he and his old boss properly adjusted for Cincinnati’s goal line front two years ago in the Super Bowl?
Even though the offense was having success seemingly all game by utilizing 12-personnel, O’Connell couldn’t help but revert to his 11-personnel base offense in a Gotta Have It moment. O’Connell compounded the issue by incorrectly suspecting a different look defensively, even though his experience against this same defense and coordinator in this situation included a goal-line front.
If O’Connell felt compelled to dip into the same bag that helped win him a Super Bowl against this same defense, it appears as if the look is there for Powell on the jet sweep. All Hockenson has to do is climb to Cincinnati’s edge rusher, and Powell’s speed likely could take care of the rest to keep the drive alive.
As the saying goes, if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. O’Connell had two separate opportunities to go with tried and true options against this defense.
- Get into 12-, 13-, or 22-personnel with some combination of Oliver and Ham on the field to enforce their will in the run game.
- Or dial up the same 11-personnel jet sweep that helped move the sticks against this very goal-line front defense in Super Bowl LVI.
Experience is always the best teacher. Although O’Connell couldn’t capitalize in Week 15 on the experiences he once had against this defense on football’s biggest stage two years ago, the expectation should be that the gut-wrenching experience from Saturday will make Minnesota’s playcaller learn from it and be better because of it going forward.
