Kevin O’Connell is as cautious — maybe even a bit paranoid — as they come when it pertains to playing his starters in the preseason. And for good reason. Last I checked, availability is still the best ability. Why risk an injury to a marquee player when you don’t have to? Plus, he already has proof of concept after his Minnesota Vikings beat the brakes off the Green Bay Packers in Week 1 last season without any preseason snaps from his starters.
But the second-year head coach made an exception to the rule in the first quarter of Thursday night’s 24-13 loss to the Seattle Seahawks.
While it makes sense that rookie wide receiver Jordan Addison played a few drives to get a sniff of how NFL game speed differs from playing on Saturdays in the ACC and Pac-12, O’Connell wanted the 31 other teams across the league to catch a glimpse of what he has in newly signed tight end Josh Oliver. Mind you, this is the same player the Vikings prioritized in March by making him the first guy they signed in free agency.
Over the course of their first two drives, Oliver and the offense lined up in 12-personnel (one running back, two tight ends, two wide receivers) on 11 of their 18 plays for a whopping 61%. The why behind this personnel shift from last season’s abundance of 11-personnel usage (one running back, one tight end, three wide receivers) is to manipulate defenses into bringing additional defenders into the box to defend the run, thus creating more single-high coverages for Justin Jefferson and O’Connell’s passing game.
And believe you me, O’Connell wanted the rest of the league to see this exact kind of ass-whooping courtesy of his new behemoth of a tight end.
By breaking his own preseason rule and allowing his starting veteran tight end to play two drives last night, O’Connell sent a clear message to 31 defensive coordinators.
Good luck staying in two-high against us now.
And no, your eyes didn’t mislead you earlier. Josh Oliver is a starter for this offense. If there’s one thing we learned about O’Connell from last year’s preseason opener in Vegas, it’s that he’s intentional with his personnel groupings. The Vikings were almost exclusively in 11-personnel in their preseason opener against the Las Vegas Raiders last year, and they followed suit by ranking fifth in the NFL in 11-personnel frequency in 2022.
Do I expect O’Connell’s 12-personnel usage to exceed 60% once the regular season starts like it did with Oliver playing the first two drives last night? Not necessarily. But I think it’s more than fair to say that Minnesota’s new base offense on early downs will shift from 11- to 12-personnel this season. And I wouldn’t be surprised in the slightest if the regular-season personnel rates reflected what we saw in the first half of Thursday’s preseason opener.
When Oliver exited the game after the second drive, O’Connell made sure to get his rookie receiver Addison going after the stripes robbed him of a reception that required a beautiful display of footwork on the sideline to complete the catch. How did Minnesota’s play caller get the former Fred Biletnikoff Award winner so open? By getting into 12-personnel, creating a single-high coverage look, and moving Addison across the field on an over route off of play-action.
What’s interesting about O’Connell’s 12-personnel usage from last night was that on Minnesota’s second, 14-play scoring drive, the offense went tempo with it and even stuck Mullens in the gun and went empty out of 12. Both tempo and empty should be fairly common occurrences for this offense once the bullets start flying in September. They’ll utilize tempo when they catch the defense in a personnel grouping they feel is exploitable, and they’ll do the same with empty in an attempt to create mismatches with T.J. Hockenson getting matched up in man coverage against a linebacker or safety.
Don’t get me wrong, O’Connell by no means is going to scrap his beloved 11-personnel offense that he picked up after spending two seasons as Sean McVay‘s offensive coordinator with the Los Angeles Rams. But drastic times call for drastic measures. And opposing defenses can no longer get away with living in two-high and taking Justin Jefferson out of the game for extended periods of time with bracketed coverages.
Will we see Oliver get snaps over the next two preseason games? Or will O’Connell’s message have been received loud and clear by NFL defenses by the time next week’s preseason game against the Tennessee Titans rolls around? If it’s the latter, that would allow Minnesota’s new ass-kicking and coverage-manipulating weapon to remain on ice until September 10 when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers pay a visit to U.S. Bank Stadium.
Which is exactly what O’Connell prefers out of his starters.
