At the risk of starting off with a tired, old football adage, sometimes the lines dads love to say whenever they watch a football game still hold true. Against the Los Angeles Chargers last Sunday, I felt like I could hear every dad in the state of Minnesota in unison as Justin Herbert carved up Brian Flores’ defense.
You live by the blitz, and you die by the blitz.
And boy, did the Vikings defense die by the blitz last weekend.
No one could possibly make the argument that Flores is not working hard for his paycheck this season. His defense has been throwing everything at opposing offenses. He’s desperately trying to create enough confusion that their undermanned defensive roster can find some footing against the opposing offense’s superior talent. That was certainly the case against the Philadelphia Eagles and Chargers, and I’d argue the Bucs as well (even with Baker Mayfield at quarterback). And the results have been…underwhelming, to say the least.
They’ve had stretches where they’ve managed to get opposing offenses a bit out of sorts, like they were early on against the Eagles in Week 2. The problem is that each week, the opposition has eventually settled in and found their footing, leading to big yardage allowed and three losses to start the season.
Speaking of three losses, the Carolina Panthers have had their issues, too. In a classic “cornered animal game,” two teams walk on that field knowing their slim chance to make the playoffs are pretty much dead on arrival if they fall to 0-4. Both teams will be playing with the desperation and energy you’d expect as they fight to keep their postseason dreams alive so early in the season.
Going into this game, I’ve got confidence in the offense finding its footing against Carolina’s injured and struggling defense. Even in the Vikings’ three losses, Kirk Cousins and Co. have moved the ball just fine. The Panthers are missing several defensive starters. If Minnesota’s interior offensive line can mitigate Carolina’s rising star in defensive tackle Derrick Brown, the offense has a really nice day.
For me, this game comes down to defense, in particular how often Flores’ unit dials up the blitz, and how Bryce Young and the Panthers respond.
Well said, Arif. Those words hurt to hear, but they feel true.
Minnesota’s defense blitzes so much that I’m not entirely sure what their “base” is. It seems like even on the most vanilla downs, they’re gonna bring at least a five- or six-man pressure. While this has its drawbacks, can you blame them? Who outside of Danielle Hunter (who’s drawing a double team almost every play they don’t bring pressure) can you expect to get after the quarterback on this defensive front? With Marcus Davenport playing a whopping four snaps so far this season, there’s no consistent pass rush threat if Flores did decide to “play base.”
It’s a damned if you do, damned if you don’t situation. Yes, blitzing 80% of the time feels unsustainable. But generating no pressure certainly isn’t either. The difference between the Chargers game and the other games where the defense had stretches of success against the Eagles and Bucs, is that the blitzes simply weren’t getting home.
If someone didn’t watch the game, and you could only show them one stat to paint the picture of how the Chargers beat Minnesota, it’d be this: The Vikings blitzed Herbert on 40 of 49 dropbacks (81.6%), and they had one sack to show for it.
But the Vikings don’t have to play Justin Herbert and Keenan Allen this week. They get to play a rookie quarterback. You’d have to imagine Bryce Young will be more rattled by Flores’ pressure than Herbert was, especially considering some of the issues Carolina’s having up front on the offensive line.
Minnesota’s secondary will have to defend the familiar face in Adam Thielen. Minnesota’s prodigal son is coming off a vintage performance last week, going 11 catches on 14 targets for 145 yards and a touchdown. If Bryce Young is gonna survive this week, it’s gonna be by getting the ball out of his hands quickly to a reliable outlet. That could be a script for Thielen to have a big day against his former squad.
To close with one final football cliché, eventually this game all boils down to who can win one-on-one matchups. So far, this defense can’t trust its pass rush to do so. Therefore, it’s relied on speeding up the clock as much as possible. And by bringing this pressure, they’re hoping their struggling secondary can win one-on-one — at least long enough to disrupt the play or mitigate the damage. And they just haven’t.
I’m guessing 81.6% will be the high watermark for blitz percentage this season. But even if that regresses to the mean (64.9% through 3 games), this is its identity this year. It may have a chance to be effective enough to disrupt the rhythm of opposing offenses for stretches, giving Minnesota’s offense chance to go play well and seize the day. Either that, or it’ll get cooked again.
Buckle up folks. It’s all gas, no brakes.
