There have been many crossroads this season for the Minnesota Vikings, but Kevin O’Connell may have made his most important decision during the bye week.
The Vikings need a quarterback who can maximize Justin Jefferson‘s skill set upon his return. The trade market has been closed since October, so Minnesota’s options are down to journeymen Josh Dobbs and Nick Mullens, and fifth-round rookie Jaren Hall. Each quarterback has pros and cons that could determine whether the Vikings make the playoffs. But they also have traits that could give us a glimpse into the future as Minnesota faces an uncertain quarterback situation heading into 2024.
The Vikings acquired Dobbs from the Arizona Cardinals at the trade deadline, making him the incumbent starter. Dobbs’ tenure in Minnesota began with his storied victories over the Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints. However, the Vikings lost to the Denver Broncos and Chicago Bears before the bye week.
Dobbs began to struggle when Denver applied constant pressure in Minnesota’s Week 11 loss. According to Pro Football Focus, the Broncos pressured Dobbs on 44.7% of his dropbacks, and the Vikings responded with a 41.1 passer rating.
Like many aspects of Minnesota’s quarterback play, some struggles were due to poor pass protection by the offensive line and in the backfield. But Dobbs had similar issues the following week in a loss to the Bears. Chicago pressured him on 44.4% of his dropbacks and posted a 58.9 passer rating under pressure.
These issues are nothing new; Dobbs has routinely struggled under pressure. In 12 games between Arizona and Minnesota, opponents have pressured him on 37.6% of his dropbacks this season. Dobbs ranks 25th among 38 quarterbacks with a minimum of 45 pressured dropbacks with a 62.6 passer rating.
Most quarterbacks will perform worse under pressure than with a clean pocket, but Dobbs also has an issue with turnovers. PFF charts Dobbs with a 4.3 turnover-worthy play percentage that ranks eighth-highest among qualifying quarterbacks. While that could signal that Dobbs is being too aggressive, it’s also misleading because he’s often had a conservative approach.
PFF’s Big Time Throws metric is defined as “a pass with excellent ball location and timing, generally thrown further down the field and/or in a tighter window.” While the definition is subjective, it’s also a tool that helps quantify a quarterback’s aggressiveness.
Dobbs’ 2.6% BTT rate this season ranks 33rd among qualifying passers. However, it isn’t far from Kirk Cousins, who posted a 3.0 BTT percentage in eight games. Dobbs’ BTT rate has increased to 3.6% in four starts with the Vikings, but his turnover-worthy play percentage has also jumped to 4.8%, ranking sixth-highest among qualifying quarterbacks.
While Cousins had a low BTT percentage, he also took care of the ball. His 2.3 turnover-worthy play percentage ranked seventh among qualifying quarterbacks this season. But with Cousins unavailable, it’s hard to see where the Vikings could find an aggressive quarterback who doesn’t turn the ball over.
Mullens would be the logical replacement for Dobbs. He began the season as the backup to Cousins, but a back injury sidelined Mullens when Cousins went down. Still, he could be the passer most similar to Captain Kirk.
Mullens’ biggest sample sizes as a starter came with the San Francisco 49ers in 2018 and 2020. In eight games in the 2018 season, Mullens had a respectable 3.2 turnover-worthy play percentage that ranked 22nd among 39 qualifying quarterbacks. However, his 1.7% BTT rate rate was tied for the lowest in the league with teammate C.J. Beathard.
However, things didn’t go as well when Mullens stepped in for 10 games in 2020. Mullens’ 5.8% turnover-worthy play rate was the second-highest in the league behind Mitch Trubisky. Although Mullens’ 2.9% BTT rate improved, it was still the sixth-lowest among qualifying quarterbacks.
With Dobbs’ added dimension as a mobile quarterback, it might make more sense to keep rolling with him over Mullens. But if the Vikings want to get spicy, they could roll the dice with Hall.
Hall’s NFL track record is limited, but he looked good on the opening drive against the Falcons before leaving with a concussion. If we look back to Hall’s senior season at BYU, he produced a 5.5% BTT rate and a 2.7% turnover-worthy play rate in 12 games with the Cougars.
While the NFL is a different game, Hall showed similar tendencies during the preseason. He posted a 3.9% BTT rate and a 3% turnover-worthy play rate in 64 dropbacks.
With adequate mobility, Hall theoretically has what O’Connell wants. There will be mistakes, but perhaps not at an egregious rate. Hall is also willing to push the ball downfield to his top playmakers, and that could be their best option to maximize Jefferson’s skill set.
But Hall still might need more experience. He didn’t make a single big-time throw before leaving the Falcons game with a concussion. While that makes Dobbs the reported leader to start Sunday’s game against the Las Vegas Raiders, it sheds some light on what the Vikings could want in the offseason – especially if Cousins leaves in free agency.
If Cousins is gone, the Vikings will be looking for a quarterback willing to push the ball downfield while minimizing turnovers. A recent playoff push could mean that selecting North Carolina’s Drake Maye (7.5% BTT, 1.9% TWP) is out of the question. However, other quarterbacks like Washington’s Michael Penix (6.2% BTT, 1.5% TWP) and LSU’s Jayden Daniels (8.4% BTT, 1.6% TWP) could be on the Vikings radar come draft time. They may also consider quarterbacks with solid BTT rates but modest TWP rates, such as Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy (6.8% BTT, 3.1% TWP).
O’Connell has used the bye week to determine which quarterback helps the Vikings win during a playoff push. While his decision will be made in the short term, it could go a long way in predicting the future and who he could have as his starting quarterback in 2024.
