In Week 13 last year, Kevin O’Connell decided to go for it on fourth down in the first quarter of the New York Jets game. The Minnesota Vikings converted and won, 27-22. “I’m always going to treat each [fourth-down] situation as its own,” O’Connell said after the game. “Sometimes, it’s a ‘feel’ thing based upon where we are in the game, how the other three phases are competing at that time, and then where I think we can ultimately take that drive.”
The Jets game was hardly perfect. Minnesota had a defensive collapse, and Mike White threw for 369 yards. But the Vikings won their ninth consecutive one-score game and finished 11-1 in such games. Mike Zimmer’s team had played a record 14 one-score games the year before and went 6-8, leading to his dismissal. “O’Connell maneuvers the fine line between analytics and gut instincts by being unafraid to overrule the former in favor of the latter,” Marc Craig wrote in a Star Tribune column after the Jets game.
Vikings game management coordinator Ryan Cordell deservedly received much praise for preparing the team for every contingency. Cordell holds weekly “situational masters” meetings, lively film sessions that are popular with the players. Then he meets with O’Connell and Minnesota’s coordinators on Saturday to discuss how they should handle certain situations. Cordell sits in the coach’s booth on game days, anticipating O’Connell’s upcoming moves. He’ll weigh in on whether the Vikings should go for it on fourth down, challenge a referee’s call, or manage the clock a certain way.
O’Connell hasn’t stopped coaching situational football this year, and Cordell hasn’t suddenly forgotten how to do his job. Instead, they’re dealing with a different situation altogether. Justin Jefferson injured his hamstring in Week 5 and returned last week in Vegas. Kirk Cousins has been out since rupturing his Achilles tendon in Week 8. O’Connell and Cordell have had to prepare Joshua Dobbs to play without practicing in Atlanta and then turn to Nick Mullens when Dobbs faltered against the Chicago Bears and Las Vegas Raiders.
Still, the Vikings are 6-7 in one-score games this year. Turnovers cost them their first three games, and they’ve had defensive lapses late in three of their last four games. Mullens played poorly situationally in Cincinnati, throwing interceptions on back-to-back drives to end the first half. And many fans were upset that O’Connell had Mullens QB sneak on back-to-back plays in overtime, where he ultimately turned it over on downs. “There’s definitely a balance of being aggressive but also being situationally aware,” Mullens said at practice this week, “and you’re always trying to find that balance.”
Mullens threw his first interception after a 14-play, 70-yard drive late in the second quarter. Mullens targeted Justin Jefferson on third-and-nine from Cincinnati’s 14-yard line, and Mike Hilton picked him at the one-yard line. Minnesota’s defense forced the Bengals to punt on Cincinnati’s next possession, and Mullens led the Vikings on a five-play, 44-yard drive with 1:37 left in the half.
The Vikings faced second-and-one from Cincinnati’s 16-yard line with 38 seconds left in the half when Myles Murphy sacked Mullens for a loss of six yards. Minnesota called its final timeout, and Mullens dropped back to pass on third down. Mullens didn’t want to take another sack with B.J. Hill bearing down on him, so he tried to get rid of the ball. The result was one of the strangest interceptions you’ll ever see. Initially, it looked like Hill had strip-sacked Mullens. But upon further inspection, Hill had caught Mullens’ attempt to throw the ball away as they fell. “I was trying to get rid of the football,” Mullens said after the game. “I don’t want to take sacks. Analytically, probably smarter just to take the sack.”
Mullens’ interceptions cost the Vikings six points, potentially more. It wasn’t good situational football. But fans were more irked by O’Connell’s decision to use 5’8”, 181 lb. Brandon Powell in back-to-back “tush push” quarterback sneaks during overtime. Mullens came within inches of converting on third-and-one. But Hill and Trey Hendrickson appeared to anticipate the Mullens’ fourth-and-one snap and stopped him behind the line of scrimmage. “I would have liked,” Mullens said at practice, “to have used different cadence.”
If the Detroit Lions beat the Vikings by eight points or less on Sunday, Minnesota will drop to 6-8 in one-score games this season. That would tie their record for one-score games in a season, and O’Connell’s one-score record would match Zimmer’s from 2021. O’Connell isn’t in jeopardy of losing his job; he’s kept Minnesota competitive despite losing Cousins and Jefferson this year. But it’s hard to fully master situations in practice, and even veteran backups like Mullens have trouble executing in the red zone or on critical downs. Therein lies Minnesota’s greatest issue this season.
