Let me get this out of the way — Kirk Cousins played a great game on Sunday against the Los Angeles Chargers. The Minnesota Vikings lost because Justin Herbert played a better one. Cousins threw for 367 yards on 32/50 passing, with three touchdowns to go along with a tipped-ball interception. Herbert threw for 405 yards on 40/47 passing, with three TDs, including one that could have well been an INT.
The advanced stats show this as well. Cousins had an excellent game by EPA/play, while Herbert had an elite one (courtesy of Ben Baldwin’s rbsdm.com).
Going to the film reveals the differences between an elite QB and a very good franchise QB. Herbert was a machine who sliced up the Vikings defense and made some truly elite throws. Kirk slashed his way through the Chargers with high-level play, but a handful of misses were part of what ultimately doomed the Vikings.
High level play
Both Herbert and Cousins set a high bar with some truly impressive plays. Take a look at the play below from Kirk on Justin Jefferson‘s long TD. Cousins steps up in the pocket and fires an accurate throw with good timing over the middle of the field as he is getting hit. The throw is exactly where it needs to be, and JJ is able to take it for a long TD after the catch.
Herbert was also cool under pressure from the Vikings, firing off an accurate pass with an unblocked blitzer in his face in the red zone. He changes his throwing angle and delivers an accurate pass to Donald Parham for a TD.
Mitigating Pressure with quick throws
The Chargers and Vikings blitzed at a high rate in this game, so both QBs had to take measures to mitigate that blitz. LA blitzed on nearly 30% of Minnesota’s dropbacks, which is higher than most teams, but Herbert had to deal with the Vikings blitzing at an astronomically high 85.7% rate.
Blitzing that regularly led to an unblocked player, so most of the game Herbert was getting the ball out as soon as he hit the top of his drop. He did so with mechanical efficiency, like on the play below, where Harrison Smith is unblocked, but Herbert releases the ball before Smith can get there. The Vikings rally to tackle:
The Vikings found similar answers to blitzes, like the play below, where Cousins beats an unblocked rusher with a quick screen to JJ.
Herbert put together one of the best games ever against the blitz, compiling the stats below:
Cousins was not quite as effective against the blitz, but still had a strong day. Per PFF, he was 7/14 for 98 yards with two TDs when blitzed, a quality 7.0 yards/attempt average.
So far, we’ve established a baseline of strong play from both QBs. So what made Herbert a better QB than Kirk last Sunday? The differences in play are honestly pretty nitpicky on Kirk’s side, but they do show the discrepancy between him and ones of the game’s best QBs.
Timing And Precision Passing
Herbert was very on time during the game and regularly beat the defense with precision throws. The throw below is a great example, where Herbert hits his back foot, likes his matchup on with Keenan Allen, and immediately plants to rip a throw for a completion:
There is a very similar throw later by Cousins to Jordan Addison on a deeper out route. Cousins takes one hitch instead of Herbert’s zero hitches above, and readjusts his footing similar to Herbert does in the play above. Kirk’s hop step is just barely longer than Herbert’s is to get into throwing position. Cousins’ throw is also approximately 10 yards longer, but he doesn’t get the ball as far outside as Herbert does. Herbert releases the ball while Allen is in between the numbers, and Allen catches it about three quarters of the way to the sideline from the numbers. On Cousins’ throw, he releases it while Addison is inside of the numbers, but Addison has to come back a little to try to catch the ball about halfway between the numbers and sideline. The ball needs to be more at the three-quarter mark like Herbert’s was.
The difference in timing and location on these passes is very, very small. But that difference separated a first-down completion from an incomplete pass. That isn’t to say Cousins has bad timing, but more to illustrate the machine-like precision that led to Herbert’s successful day.
Pinpoint downfield throws with impending pressure
The next set of plays shows just a slight accuracy difference between Cousins and Herbert while under duress. On the play below for the Vikings, Cousins needs to hold on to the ball for a little as K.J. Osborn runs a slow-developing double move. The protecting is pretty good for the timing, and Cousins is able to release the throw with a good base, but a little pressure flashes across his face during the throw. That throw is just past K.J.’s outstretched arms, and is one that Cousins said he didn’t execute well in his post-game press conference:
Herbert shone with accurate ball placement under pressure, including this throw below to Josh Palmer, where Akayleb Evans also got a PI call. The Vikings are sending their Hawk blitz, and Patrick Jones comes unblocked up the middle on the play. Herbert cannot step into the throw at all, and has to throw off of his back foot. The ball travels over 35 yards in the air with pinpoint accuracy, allowing Palmer to make the catch on the sideline.
a touch of extra escapability
Moments under pressure also helped separate Herbert from Cousins. Minnesota’s QB has never been particularly mobile, but he rarely causes his own pressure, and he did have a number of plays where he managed the pocket well in this game. The problem comes when Cousins needs to make defenders miss, where he lacks the athleticism to make that happen. While not an elite athlete, Herbert regularly avoided pressure and got throws off in this game that Kirk was unable to, and it showed in their sack totals, with Cousins taking four to Herbert’s one. (That lone sack didn’t even bring Herbert to the ground, but Danielle Hunter was instead able to knock the ball out of Herbert’s hands as he started his throwing motion.)
Herbert can anticipate pressure, move around it, and he knows when to get the ball out. On the play below, he steps up past Josh Metellus, and then decisively throws a one-on-one deep route. It falls incomplete as Byron Murphy has great coverage, but an incompletion is preferable to a sack in this situation. You can see that if Herbert had tried to extend the play further, D.J. Wonnum would have been able to corral him for a sack.
Contrast that play with the below Cousins play. Kirk does a similarly good job of stepping up against pressure from the edge, but instead of firing a shot downfield and giving a player a chance, he tries to go further with is legs. Unfortunately, he doesn’t have the athleticism to get past Sheldon Day, and is sacked because his knee hits the ground before the ball is out. If he had thrown the one-on-one to Addison on the post, the ball falling incomplete is the most likely outcome, and better than a sack leading to second and extra long:
Herbert’s ability to quickly reset his feet also shines. On the play below, he gets yanked off balance by Metellus, but quickly recovers and gets a good base to deliver a strong, accurate throw:
Cousins struggled to reset his base on the play below, where he climbs up in the pocket to avoid pressure. He has Addison open deep if he can line up to throw the ball, but you can see he switches his footwork to run rather than hitch. That lack of a base causes him to check down, a pass that gets broken up:
Herbert shows great ability to get the ball out despite impending hits. The play below is extremely impressive, where he steps up to avoid Hunter, but it’s directly into two players. A lightning quick release still allows him to deliver an accurate ball for a third-down conversion.
Cousins had some hesitance to his game that led to a couple of his sacks, like the one below. On it, he has JJ wide open on a slant for a first down. For whatever reason, maybe fear of the ball being batted, he declines to throw it immediately. As he holds on for a beat, he ends up taking a sack.
Fear of getting passes batted down was not a problem for Herbert. He showed a variety of different arm angles to get passes off past defenders that were jumping to deflect the ball, like on the play below. I feel confident that Herbert would have fired this slant as soon as he saw it, and it would have been completed for a first down.
Conclusion
Kirk Cousins played a great game against the Chargers, but Justin Herbert showed why he is one of the best QBs in the league. Both played with a high level of accuracy, timing, and processed plays well. However, one of the deciding factors of the game were the slight misses that the Vikings had on incompletions and sacks. Herbert displayed mechanical efficiency and timing, poise under pressure and great escapability, while Cousins lagged just far enough behind in those categories that you can put together this highlight reel for the Chargers:
This near miss reel for the Vikings:
And see the fact that the Chargers beat the Vikings, 28-24.
