The lasting memory of the Minnesota Vikings’ 2022 season is Kirk Cousins checking down to T.J. Hockenson on fourth-and-eight, a play that ultimately ended the Vikings’ season in a Wild Card loss to the New York Giants. Lots of digital ink has been spilled over whether that play meant Cousins regressed back to his conservative ways. Would he rather have that play back, or the play before, including a throw to K.J. Osborn? And, of course, should that ball should have gone to Justin Jefferson?
What isn’t often talked about is how Cousins was about to get absolutely clobbered by Giants’ DL Dexter Lawrence on that play, as can be seen from this still:
Lawrence dominated the Vikings’ interior offensive line in the game, in a way that was familiar to Minnesota fans:
The Vikings struggled to protect Cousins on the interior all year, and their interior three (Ezra Cleveland, Garrett Bradbury, and Ed Ingram) allowed 10 or more pressures in games against the Green Bay Packers (Kenny Clark), Philadelphia Eagles (Fletcher Cox), Washington Commanders (Daron Payne and Jonathan Allen), Indianapolis Colts (DeForest Buckner), and the aforementioned Giants.
Among all 216 offensive linemen who played at least 20% of the snaps last season, Ingram ranked 197th, Cleveland ranked 171st, and Bradbury ranked 98th in pass-blocking grade. That led to Cousins being under pressure on 252 dropbacks, the second most in the league, a 35.9% rate. Additionally, Cousins was only responsible for 5.3% of the pressures he faced (third best among the 43 QBs who qualified). Conversely, the RG, Ingram, was at least partially responsible for 27.5% of Cousins’ pressure, highest in the league, and the LG, Cleveland, was partially responsible for 25.6%, sixth highest. (All stats above are from PFF.)
Minnesota’s run game was also very poor, ranking 29th in EPA/play and tied for 24th in success rate. Rushing success is largely driven by OL play, and the Vikings struggled in part because of their inability to block opposing interior players. Despite those issues, the Vikings made no changes to their OL this offseason. Cleveland, Bradbury, and Ingram are slated to start on the IOL again this season.
Enter the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who appear to be a team in turmoil after losing Tom Brady to retirement this past offseason. Those issues mostly extend to the offensive side of the ball, while the defense has remained stout with little personnel turnover. The Bucs were eighth in rushing success rate on defense last season, and 11th overall in EPA per play. That’s a drop off from their Super Bowl team, which led the league in both categories but is still a respectable unit.
The defensive line still has Vita Vea, one of the strongest players in the league. They have solid rotational pieces in Anthony Nelson, William Gholston, and Greg Gaines; a high-level pass rusher in Shaq Barrett, who is returning from an Achilles injury; and drafted Calijah Kancey, who was a devastating interior rusher at Pitt, in the first round.
Vea is the exact type of player the Vikings struggled with last year. He’s a 350 lb. rock in the middle of the defense who is quick off the snap and can overpower smaller opposing linemen like Bradbury. Vea has always been stout against the run, but he’s also grown as a pass rusher throughout his career, recording a career high 6.5 sacks in 2022.
In addition to Vea, the Bucs have always been aggressive blitzing under Bowles. Tampa Bay has been top 10 in blitz rate every season since 2019, ranking in the top five in three out of four seasons. Devin White is a particularly effective blitzer, recording 5.5 sacks. When Tampa’s defense is rolling, White is a weapon on blitzes.
While the Vikings are six-point favorites over the Bucs, Tampa Bay’s path to victory likely involves players like Vea, Barrett, Kancey, and White dominating Minnesota’s offensive line. If the returning interior trio of Cleveland, Bradbury, and Ingram fails their first test of the season, Kirk Cousins and Vikings fans may be in for a long season.
