At first glance, the offseason has not been kind to the Minnesota Vikings.
The Vikings have lost several key players from a team that won 13 games a year ago, and another could be on the way out. While the departures of some of those players felt inevitable, it’s still a level of production that needs to be replaced – especially if the goal is to build off their success.
With the Vikings failing to make a seismic move, some believe that they will take a step back. Others have uttered the dirty word (rebuild) that nobody at TCO Performance Center wants to say out loud. But while Minnesota doesn’t look like a better team on paper, it doesn’t mean they’ll be vying for a high draft pick. In many ways, the Vikings are doing what they did a year ago. And by doing so, they are doubling down on Kevin O’Connell’s culture.
Minnesota’s first bet came last year when they hired O’Connell as head coach. The Vikings had a thorough search that included Todd Bowles, Raheem Morris, and Jim Harbaugh. Ultimately, they decided on O’Connell despite his lack of head coaching experience.
When they brought back most of the roster for the 2022 season, many believed that they were set for another seven- to eight-win season. But the Vikings believed that O’Connell’s culture could elevate a group that had underachieved in the final years of Mike Zimmer’s tenure. The result was a 13-win season and Minnesota’s first division title since 2017.
O’Connell’s culture was apparent throughout his rookie season. The Vikings won 11 one-score games, which created a “fraud” narrative that was cemented when they got to the playoffs. However, it established what O’Connell could do under the right conditions.
That leads to what happened this offseason. The Vikings released Adam Thielen, Eric Kendricks and Dalvin Cook. Patrick Peterson and Dalvin Tomlinson left in free agency. They traded Za’Darius Smith to the Cleveland Browns. Rumors that trade talks involving Danielle Hunter have “heated up,” which could signal that Minnesota is going “Full Bears” more than “Full Rams.”
It’s a compelling argument when you consider what the Vikings lost.
Kendricks no longer has the speed that made him one of the best coverage linebackers in the NFL. However, Ed Donatell asked him to play conservatively in his defense. While many expect Brian Asamoah to seamlessly slide into the starting lineup, he’s an undersized linebacker playing next to Jordan Hicks, who ranked 33rd out of 42 linebackers with a minimum of 400 snaps in PFF’s coverage grades last season.
Thielen also failed to create separation but still managed to catch 70 passes for 716 yards and six touchdowns. O’Connell billed Jordan Addison as a “Day 1 starter” moments after the Vikings selected him in the first round of the draft. Still, he’s a rookie going into an offense that had Thielen “swimming” to learn at this time last year.
Even if K.J. Osborn ascends to the No. 2 role in the offense, he may be the Vikings’ new version of Leroy Hoard – a player who has a solid floor but isn’t capable of more production.
Cook ranked 42nd out of 48 running backs with a minimum of 90 carries in expected rushing yards last season. However, he still ran for over 1,100 yards for the fourth-straight year. The Vikings are hoping that Alexander Mattison can be a more efficient option but after a career-low 74 carries (and 3.8 yards per carry), but it’s not clear that will be a seamless transition.
Peterson is another defensive player who was over the age of 30 but still had five interceptions – his highest total since 2012. The Vikings are hoping that Byron Murphy can fill his role. However, he only had one interception in four seasons with the Arizona Cardinals. Behind Murphy is a group of unproven corners who have battled injuries (Andrew Booth Jr., Akayleb Evans) and two rookies (Mekhi Blackmon, Jay Ward).
Tomlinson might not seem like a big loss, but can you name the starter at defensive tackle? It’s Khyiris Tonga, who the Chicago Bears released last September. While Tonga was a good rotational player, the Vikings are gambling that he can ascend to a starting role.
Then there’s the edge rusher situation. Za’Darius Smith was fifth in the league with 80 quarterback pressures and 10 sacks. The Vikings replaced him with Marcus Davenport, who had the same number of pressures (34) as D.J. Wonnum and has just one season (2019) with more than 50 pressures.
This situation could get even worse if the Vikings decide to trade Hunter, who is reportedly holding out of mandatory minicamp as he looks for a new contract.
Looking at all of this, you may believe that the Vikings have their eyes set on Caleb Williams or Drake Maye. But neither O’Connell or Kwesi Adofo-Mensah can afford a lost season as they enter the second year of four-year contracts. They need to win now – and that’s where O’Connell’s culture comes into play.
O’Connell’s culture successfully elevated an underachieving group a year ago, and the Vikings believe it can elevate an average group this season. If they didn’t believe so, they wouldn’t have aggressively pursued defensive coordinator Brian Flores, who is establishing his own culture on the defensive side of the ball.
O’Connell also is putting his own stamp on the offensive side of the ball. The Vikings added a run-blocking tight end in Josh Oliver, a more dynamic second receiver in Addison, and opened more of the playbook for Cousins. Last year, Cousins appeared to be more comfortable as the season went along.
In terms of statistics, the Vikings may not be a better team. But they might have enough to get to where they want to go, especially with the right head coach on the sidelines.
Think about the Pittsburgh Steelers, who have consistently churned out nine-win seasons under Mike Tomlin. While that has produced the type of fluky season that the Vikings had a year ago, the Steelers haven’t stopped winning even as they transitioned away from Le’Veon Bell, Antonio Brown, and Ben Roethlisberger on offense and several key players on defense.
There’s an argument that consistent success is a detriment to any team looking to rebuild. But that wasn’t the case for the Baltimore Ravens, who have only had four sub-.500 seasons over the past 20 years. Still, they managed to win a Super Bowl in 2012. The Ravens also made the playoffs 12 times during that time frame and still found a way to get a franchise quarterback in Lamar Jackson.
There’s also the Kansas City Chiefs example. In a lot of ways, they were similar to the Vikings until they went all in and traded for Patrick Mahomes. Comparing any scenario to the Chiefs requires remembering that Mahomes is an outlier. However, it’s also based on Andy Reid’s culture elevating a good team into being a great one, which is exactly what the Vikings are hoping for from O’Connell.
The Vikings probably aren’t winning the Super Bowl this year, but they’re not going to win three games either. In a perfect world, O’Connell’s culture elevates the Vikings to overachieve and the team either makes one big move to take the next step or becomes the team a disgruntled quarterback wants to play for.
It all depends on O’Connell, who may have the right culture to help the Vikings rebuild without tanking.
