Well Vikings fans, I hope you enjoyed the slopfest at Soldier Field last week, because as ugly as that football game was, at least it ended in a Minnesota Vikings victory. For those keeping score at home, the teams Minnesota has beaten this year have a combined 1-11 record. The Vikings took advantage of a terrible Chicago Bears team with terrible players and terrible coaching to snag their second win of the season.
Unfortunately, they won’t have that opportunity this week on Monday Night Football. When the San Francisco 49ers come to town on Monday, they’ll be doing so as one of the most dominant teams in football. If Minnesota is gonna avoid another primetime nightmare, Minnesota’s coaching staff has its work cut out for them.
If the Vikings are going to find a way to make this game competitive, though, their best chance may be on defense.
Brock Purdy in many ways is the antithesis of Kirk Cousins that Kirk’s haters have dreamed of. He’s efficient, he’s young, and he’s insanely cheap. Scott Barrett has a stat he tracks where he compares a player’s EPA (earned point average) per game check, essentially tracking which teams are getting the biggest impact per dollar they pay a player. There’s no greater discrepancy in the NFL than the production San Francisco is reaping from Purdy’s bargain bin value. He’s making less than a million dollars this season, and has a better EPA per game than Patrick Mahomes.
Juxtapose that with a player like Cousins. By this metric, San Fran is paying Purdy a little over $50,000 for every point he’s worth. The Vikings pay Cousins almost $11 million per point he produces each week. That stat becomes even more funny when you consider a player like Daniel Jones, who’s getting paid roughly $4.5 million for every point he costs the New York Giants with terrible play each week.
That little detour is to demonstrate an important point. Purdy has been legitimately really, really great, regardless of if you wanna label him as a system quarterback or not. And all that excess cash has allowed San Francisco to build an absolute juggernaut around him.
Not only does Purdy have arguably the brightest offensive mind in football calling his plays, he’s got:
- Two top-tier wide receivers (Deebo Samuel/Brandon Aiyuk)
- One of the best tight ends in football (George Kittle)
- A dope offensive line (led by Trent Williams)
- And the best running back in the league (Christian McCaffrey).
Add in that Purdy’s been a legitimate plus player on top of that, and you get one of the best offenses in the league. He may have been the last pick in the draft, but “Mr. Irrelevant” may be the luckiest guy in NFL history.
Now it’s up to Brian Flores and the Vikings defense to find a way to stop him.
Purdy is coming off the first bad game of his career against the Cleveland Browns’ elite defense and terrible weather. It’s up to Brian Flores to turn that anomaly into the young quarterback’s first cold streak. Tilting the scales a bit more in Minnesota’s favor is the possible health concerns of Deebo Samuel, Trent Williams, and Christian McCaffrey — all have a chance to sit on Monday. It seems likely Samuel and Williams could give it a go, with McCaffrey likely a game time decision.
That opens the door for the Vikings defense to possibly make Purdy uncomfortable. That’s two of his favorite safety valves and his best pass protector in jeopardy.
The other advantage could come in the form of scheme familiarity. The Vikings offense has taken several concepts from the Shanahan tree of the wide zone offense this offseason. Therefore, Minnesota’s defense has essentially been playing a 49ers scout team every day in practice. Nobody calls it better than Shanahan, but this defense shouldn’t be shocked by anything they haven’t seen.
Shanahan has made his legacy on elite running schemes and passing concepts designed to abuse the opposition’s coverage rules, making it increasingly important that Vikings’ back end plays sound, assignment football. Otherwise, Purdy will make them pay by taking advantage of wide open looks.
San Francisco’s offense also thrives by getting elite athletes in space with run after catch opportunities, something that could be a big concern against Flores’ defense. Everyone knows about Minnesota’s blitz rate, and they love to pair that with off-man coverage. They’re banking on either getting home on the blitz, or rallying to the ball underneath, hoping that’s enough to stall out the opposing offense eventually. That has worked to some degree this season, but it could be dangerous against a team built on elite athletes making plays after the catch. The Vikings secondary better come ready to make open field tackles, as it could be a matter of life and death for this defense.
Flores will also need to continue to dig deep into his bag of tricks. There could be a path to success if he can keep things varied and confuse Purdy, especially if he’s without his favorite targets to dump it off under pressure. But if the Vikings give him easy pre-snap reads, Purdy has shown he can beat the blitz. Wink Martindale tested that for the Vikings earlier this season. The Giants blitzed Purdy on a whopping 84% of his dropbacks, and paid the price for it. Sending pressure is a part of Minnesota’s identity, but it’ll be crucial that they do it the right way.
The more I dug into Brock Purdy leading up to this game, the more impressed I came away with his play. It’s time we stop thinking of him as just another Nick Mullens, a bargain bin quarterback Kyle Shanahan is working his witchcraft on. Shanahan may be as magical as ever, but he’s been given a more potent ingredient to brew with here. Purdy is a nice player, and he’ll beat teams that underestimate him.
It’s a daunting challenge ahead for this Vikings team, and they’ll need their A-Game on Monday Night to keep their desperate hopes for this season alive. We’ll see if Mr. Irrelevant crushes those dreams, or if Flores can pull off his own magic act.
