As teams hammer out their final roster at the end of training camp, some big names are bound to become available. In the early days of this process, it appears Trey Lance is one of those names.
Lance failed to beat out Sam Darnold for the San Francisco 49ers’ backup quarterback job, and his days with the team may be numbered. NFL insiders like Ian Rapoport have suggested that the Minnesota Vikings could be interested in trading for Lance, leaving both teams with a big decision to make.
While the possibility of trading for Lance has multiple layers, it’s a decision that’s not really about Lance. If Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and the rest of the front office are thinking about this correctly, they should be considering whether they have the infrastructure in place to support such a move.
The Vikings are entering next season with plenty of uncertainty at quarterback. Exploring an extension with Kirk Cousins was a top priority for the front office this offseason. However, the two sides couldn’t agree on a deal, leaving the Vikings without a certain plan at the game’s most important position in 2024.
Many fans believe the Vikings should find a way to extend Cousins because of the stability he brings to the position. There is also a group that believes that signing Cousins to another iron-clad contract would keep them from swinging wildly on a quarterback. But the tale of Lance’s career should impact their decision, even if he never actually wears a Vikings jersey.
Lance’s career has been a mystery since he came out of North Dakota State. After a full year as a starter, Lance played in only one game due to the pandemic in 2020. However, he showed enough upside to make him a top prospect.
Taking a quarterback like Lance requires a team to have bit of intestinal fortitude to select when they’re on the clock, let alone turn over a truckload of draft capital for the right to select him. Still, it made sense for the Niners considering where they were as an organization.
The 49ers took a leap of faith when they traded up for Lance in 2021. They had a strong roster of guys who just went to the Super Bowl. If Jimmy Garoppolo had hit a wide-open Emmanuel Sanders in the fourth quarter, there’s a chance they would have had their franchise quarterback for the next decade.
But Garoppolo’s pass sailed a few yards too far and San Francisco pulled the trigger on a potentially franchise-altering deal. They sent three first-round picks and a 2022 third-round pick to the Miami Dolphins for the third-overall pick in the draft.
Had Lance panned out, the Niners would have solved their quarterback position for years to come and combined it with a roster that could have made them a long-term juggernaut. But even though it hasn’t worked out, Purple Daily’s Phil Mackey pointed out that the deal hasn’t hurt the 49ers as much as other teams that made a move to get a franchise savior but didn’t have the roster to support it.
“Think about the teams that generally draft great quarterbacks,” Mackey reasoned. “The Niners were kind of a rare case…where it’s a good team that gets their hands on a Trey Lance or a Patrick Mahomes. Usually, it’s a train wreck. … Circumstances matter and so this is a better time to gamble on a young quarterback than some of the other points in Vikings history.”
To Mackey’s point, take a look at the New York Jets, who traded up for Mark Sanchez in 2009 and Sam Darnold in 2018. Neither quarterback panned out, in part because of the deficient roster around them. Ultimately, the Jets wound up going back to the drawing board to select Zach Wilson. New York hasn’t won more than seven games since 2015.
The then-San Diego Chargers were in a similar spot, trading up for Ryan Leaf in the 1998 draft just three years after reaching the Super Bowl. However, their roster had eroded since then. Leaf flamed out and the Chargers to fell back to the bottom of the standings.
There are also the cases of the Denver Broncos and Cleveland Browns trading for proven veterans such as Russell Wilson and Deshaun Watson, who haven’t come as advertised after arriving with their new teams. The Broncos hoped Wilson could elevate a team that seemed to have a young nucleus. But Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy haven’t lived up to their pre-draft expectations, and poor coaching led Denver to a 5-12 record. Cleveland also gave up a ton of draft capital to the Houston Texans for Watson, but his off-the-field issues resulted in an 11-game suspension. Watson looked shaky at times when he returned, and an imbalanced roster left the Browns with a 7-10 record.
Wilson and Watson’s situations could persuade a front office to stick with the safe option, such as signing Cousins to a lucrative extension. However, it should be noted that whiffing on Lance didn’t hurt San Francisco.
The Niners still have a cheap, dominant defense. They have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. They had a scheme that could turn a community college running back into a star and still decided to trade more draft capital for Christian McCaffrey. And they enter 2023 as one of the few Super Bowl contenders in the NFC and have an over/under of 10.5 wins.
San Francisco’s situation poses a conundrum for every team looking for a franchise-caliber quarterback. If a team has the infrastructure in place, they can withstand the loss of draft capital and remain in the upper echelon of the NFL. If they don’t, they slide down the totem pole and start from scratch.
When it comes to the Vikings, you could argue that they have that infrastructure on offense. Justin Jefferson is the best receiver in the NFL right now, and T.J. Hockenson can be a reliable target for any quarterback. With Christian Darrisaw protecting the blindside and a running scheme similar to the one Kyle Shanahan runs in San Francisco, the Vikings could be that heralded “one quarterback away” team that could plug a new signal caller in and take off.
But other areas remain a concern. Minnesota’s defense continues to be riddled with massive holes. If the past two draft classes don’t produce talent, they could wind up being a similar burden to the one Cousins has had to carry for the past couple of seasons.
There are also issues on the offensive line. Brian O’Neill is starting to creep towards the age of 30 and the interior was an unintentional focal point of Cousins’ appearance on the Netflix docuseries Quarterback. They’re the reason his catchphrase was a pained grunt.
We also don’t know what Kwesi Adofo-Mensah’s competitive rebuild entails. While he has made moves to ensure the team stays competitive, he also has yet to sign a player to a long-term extension. Many believed deals for Hockenson and Jefferson would have been done by now, but the fact that they aren’t makes the Vikings foundation much weaker than it seems. However, if it’s as strong as they think, they could wind up in the same situation that the New York Giants did by trading for Eli Manning in the early 2000s or the Kansas City Chiefs did by trading for Patrick Mahomes.
The Vikings have to be honest with themselves. If they believe the deals will get done and they can shore up their weaknesses, making a deal for a quarterback makes sense – especially for a quarterback who might be as cheap as Lance. But if the Vikings don’t feel that way, perhaps keeping Cousins for a few more years to build that infrastructure is the right move. The front office has already put this plan into motion, passing over top quarterback prospects Will Levis and Hendon Hooker in last year’s draft to add Jordan Addison and a few pieces to the defense.
It’s a process that should factor into their decisions at quarterback, and it will be influenced by how Lance’s career has panned out – whether he gets traded to Minnesota or not.
