Many things went wrong for the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday night. Kevin O’Connell’s play-calling in the red zone wasn’t great. Patrick Surtain neutralized Jordan Addison. Josh Oliver was a key cog in the passing game.
For everything that went wrong on offense, there was still a beacon of hope. Brian Flores’ defense was holding everything together. The Vikings were ahead 17-9 in the third quarter and driving into Denver Broncos territory. A score would have put Minnesota on track for their sixth straight win and allowed them to continue their resurgence into the NFC playoff picture.
Things actually looked pretty good — that is, until Alexander Mattison put the ball on the turf. Mattison’s fumble with 2:48 to go in the third quarter breathed life into the Broncos, who capitalized with a 21-20 comeback victory.
You can point to several reasons Minnesota lost this game, but the most glaring is their situation in the backfield. Coming into the final six games, the Vikings don’t seem to have a viable solution to their problem, and it could put their hopes for a playoff run in jeopardy.
It started with the Dalvin Cook drama that played out last spring. Cook was an explosive threat in the backfield, but his efficiency started declining. The Vikings sought a younger and cheaper alternative, ultimately leading to Mattison signing a two-year, $7 million contract to stay in Minnesota.
The idea had merit on paper. Mattison and Cook both had a 47.3% rushing success rate last season. With Cook inching closer to age 30, the Vikings could move on and allocate part of his $14 million cap hit elsewhere on the roster.
The Vikings could also hedge their bet by creating a deep running back room. Ty Chandler has shown plenty of explosiveness, but the front office also placed a starting grade on seventh-round draft pick DeWayne McBride. Together, they could form a rushing attack that the Detroit Lions, Kansas City Chiefs, and Miami Dolphins have made popular. The concept helped O’Connell win a Super Bowl during his time as the Los Angeles Rams’ offensive coordinator.
But when those numbers and spreadsheets translated to the field, Mattison looked in over his head. Sunday night’s fumble was only his second of the season, but they seem to be magnified because of when they’ve occurred.
Mattison’s fumble flipped Sunday’s game, and his fumble against the Philadelphia Eagles led to a 24-7 hole that was too big for the Vikings to climb out of. There have been other miscues, like a drop against the Kansas City Chiefs and a lack of burst that has made him a modern-day Leroy Hoard.
“Coach, if you need one yard, I’ll get you three,” the former Vikings running back once said. “If you need five yards, I’ll get you three yards.”
Some people appreciate Hoard’s humor, but not a Vikings team with playoff aspirations. Fans have searched for an answer to Mattison’s struggles throughout the season, and their hopes have been pinned onto Chandler’s shoulders.
Chandler is an explosive alternative to Mattison, who showed he can handle a decent workload with 197 touches during his final collegiate season at North Carolina. With speed for days, Chandler can replace Cook’s home run-ability and has a 48.5% success rate, which is significantly better than Mattison’s.
But this prompts a question. If Chandler is more efficient, explosive, and productive than Mattison, why do the Vikings insist on keeping Mattison in the starting role? The answer could be in something we’re not seeing.
During the 2021 season, fans and media frequently questioned Mike Zimmer about his reluctance to play rookies while several veteran players struggled.
The issue came to a head when Zimmer chose Sean Mannion to start a critical late-season matchup against the Packers over Kellen Mond. After the Vikings lost that game, they were eliminated from playoff contention. A reporter asked Zimmer if Mond would get an extended look in the season finale against the Bears.
“Not particularly,” Zimmer responded. “I see him every day.”
It turns out that Mond displayed his flaws during practice, and he wasn’t ready for a larger role. The Vikings released Mond nine months later, validating Zimmer’s decision. The Cleveland Browns later picked him up, and now he’s a member of the Indianapolis Colts.
That’s important because something similar could be going on with Chandler. The fan sitting on their couch could be screaming for Chandler to take over the lead role in the backfield. However, O’Connell could see things in practice that make him believe he’s not suited for the task.
That came through after Chandler’s performance during a preseason game against the Seattle Seahawks last August. While O’Connell acknowledged Chandler’s explosiveness, he also alluded to something behind the scenes that was holding him back.
Just any time he had the ball in his hands, [he was] very rarely tackled by the first defender in space. Catching the ball…and then picked up where he left off as far as his ability when the lights come on to sometimes turn into a different guy. Now I want to see it every single day and really see him be consistent, because he’s proven when it goes live and it’s real football he’s a tough guy to bring to the ground.
It’s hard to know what that issue could be. However, Chandler’s miss on a blitz pickup on Josh Dobbs’s interception in the fourth quarter may give some clues. There may also be other issues not visible to the common fan, but they could be obvious to the people who watch him practice every day.
The Vikings have been hesitant to put Chandler on the field. Chandler recorded only six carries in his rookie year, partially due to a broken hand, and he began minicamp behind Kene Nwangwu on the depth chart.
In addition to re-signing Mattison, the Vikings also reportedly had interest in David Montgomery, who ultimately signed with Detroit.
Minnesota even threw an obstacle in front of Chandler during the season by acquiring Cam Akers in a trade with the Rams. If Akers didn’t suffer a torn Achilles, there’s a chance that Chandler wouldn’t be on the field, raising even more curiosity about what’s going on with Chandler that we can’t see.
That puts O’Connell and his staff in a tough situation. Mattison isn’t cutting it as a primary running back, but they don’t have another option they feel comfortable with. While Chandler should have an increased role, it creates an element of risk that may be worth it. However, it also could sabotage Minnesota’s playoff hopes.
That’s a big problem, one that must be figured out in the coming weeks. Otherwise, more moments like the ones Mattison had on Sunday night could be common as the Vikings head down the stretch.
