The Minnesota Vikings are in need of a quarterback of the future. The most likely path to getting there is in the 2023 NFL draft. The Vikings have been rumored to trade up, and the steam is getting hotter. The Draft Network’s Jaime Eisner reported in his mock draft that he has “heard loud rumblings that Minnesota (Vikings) is very active in trying to trade up for a quarterback.”
As you can see in the picture, Eisner had the Vikings moving up all the way to second overall. Our own Matt Fries discussed what it might look like for the Vikings to go up to third overall, and it’s a doozy.
The real trade value likely lies somewhere in the middle. Splitting the difference (between Rich Hill trade chart and the 49ers trading up for Trey Lance) could mean the Vikings send a package like No. 23, their 2024 first and second, and their 2025 first. Or they could send something No. 23, No. 87, their 2024 first and fourth, and their 2025 first.
That’s a massive package for the Vikings to give up. If the pick hits, it really doesn’t matter what the cost is. However, it takes two to tango. There isn’t a ton of precedent for a team in the 20s to move into the top 10.
- 2006: The Atlanta Falcons trade 27, second and fourth-round pick, plus a first and fourth in 2007 to the Cleveland Browns for pick 6.
- 2017: The Kansas City Chiefs trade 27 and a third along with a 2018 first to the Buffalo Bills for pick 10.
Nobody has been able to move into the top five for a player from the 20s. It would be unprecedented. However, if the Vikings could, the play would be for Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud.
Stroud was a four-star recruit out of Rancho Cucamonga, Calif. in the 2020 recruiting class. He won the job after Justin Fields left Columbus for the NFL draft. Stroud struggled in his first couple of starts, but he turned it on during the season and became a top prospect by the end of the 2021 season. Stroud doubled down on his successful 2021 with an appearance the 2022 College Football Playoff. How he got there is why he should be a target for the Vikings in a move-up.
Beautiful touch
The best quarterbacks can attack down the field in multiple ways. You want to see them hit deep balls with some form of consistency. According to Pro Football Focus, Stroud hit 31 of 61 passes for 1,082 yards and 12 touchdowns on passes over 20 air yards. One of the areas in which Stroud excels is dropping the ball in a bucket. He does so extremely well, throwing fade and go routes to the outside.
The below play is a perfect example. Stroud is in the shotgun and throws a fade route on a three-step drop. What makes this so impressive is that it’s from the opposite hash. Not only is this traveling 40 yards down the field, but that ball goes an extra 10-15 yards across the field.
It’s not a one-time thing with Stroud either. He does so often. Some will say that having elite receivers is a detriment, but with perfect throws and ball placement, does it really matter?
Arm talent
Dropping it in a bucket is just one part of what makes Stroud special. He can drive the ball and make the difficult throws. Below is a modified smash concept (corner route with a hitch underneath). Stroud is falling away on this throw and has the arm strength to hit Marvin Harrison Jr. with perfect ball placement. You don’t get that kind of ability with just any quarterback. Throws like this always remind me of Brett Favre — he did this a lot.
Stroud is also very confident with his ability. This is a borderline ill-advised throw. Emeka Egbuka is running a simple hitch route. Stroud sees the linebacker flowing to that side, so he leads Egbuka to the sideline just a little bit and hits the pass with timing and rhythm. If that’s not perfect, it could easily be going the other way for six. Stroud has the accuracy and confidence to make the tough throw.
Pocket presence and decision making
One of the things that Stroud was criticized for was his lack of creativity and not using his legs. We found out later that Ryan Day told Stroud to stay in the pocket and not scramble or run the ball. That shifted at the end of year, and Stroud was masterful at doing so against Georgia.
When he is in the pocket, Stroud is tremendous at understanding what is going on in front of him. He looks off defenders consistently and with ease. Here, he looks off the safety just enough to create a window with the seam route. With the defense in cover-1 and in a condensed area in the red zone, that look off was just enough to make the throw.
The video below has two things that you see from Aaron Rodgers all the time: taking advantage of an offsides and hitting the back shoulder with his top wide receiver. He gets the snap off quickly and hits Harrison Jr. with gusto. What makes this even more impressive is that Stroud was falling backwards in making the throw. He’s special.
The likelihood of a trade up is very plausible for the Vikings, but how far they can go is a different story. If Stroud ends up taking any sort of fall, they need to make the move and set themselves up for the next 10-15 years.
