Adam Schefter reported that a number of teams have contacted the Arizona Cardinals inquiring about moving up to the No. 3-overall pick in the draft, kicking off speculation that the Minnesota Vikings might be a team looking to ascend the board:
From an outside perspective, it would make sense for the Vikings to contact Arizona. Minnesota has clearly been doing homework on quarterbacks in this draft, prompting more than one draft insider to mock them Hendon Hooker at No. 23 overall. However, the team already has a very good starting QB in Kirk Cousins. At the combine, Kwesi Adofo-Mensah said that in the NFL, “a necessary condition is having a starter-level QB.”
To move on from Cousins, it feels as though the Vikings will need a clear upgrade. With two QBs slated to go at No. 1 and 2 in this year’s draft, and four frequently mocked in the top 10, Minnesota may have to make a significant move to get a guy they view on that level.
That puts a potential move up to No. 3 in play.
Historical Perspective
While moving up to No. 3 sounds nice, it’s a different matter entirely to pay the necessary price. If the Vikings choose to do so, they will follow the blueprint of a number of teams to move up for a QB with an incumbent starter on a big contract.
Those moves are:
Of the group above, Jordan Love and Daniel Jones were likely meant as “QBs of the future” to replace legendary players the team felt might retire. The Baltimore Ravens took Lamar Jackson after they had already made a pick in Hayden Hurst. Therefore, he probably doesn’t fit the spirit of the exercise. With those eliminated, we have two examples of teams who moved up from the 20s into range for a QB. We also have two that moved up from before the middle of the round to the top three. Neither of those situations really fit Minnesota’s scenario, but they’re useful to look at as benchmarks for a trade.
Given the San Francisco 49ers’ recent trade up for Trey Lance and the Philadelphia Eagles trade for Carson Wentz, where they used players to move from No. 13 to No. 8, and then sent that along with an extra first, second, third, and fourth to move up to No. 2, we can infer that the cost is three first-round picks at a minimum.
Calculating the Pick Value
There are a number of publicly available models for the trade value of NFL picks. The original chart, developed by Jimmy Johnson while he was in the NFL, is often cited. However, there are more recent charts that look at the outcomes of picks, such as ones created by Chase Stuart based on AV or the Fitzgerald-Spielberger Chart, which looks at contract values. PFF also has its own proprietary model.
Those models are great for evaluating whether or not a trade was a good move (hint: It’s almost always good to trade down), but they don’t really tell us how much it will cost to trade to a certain pick. For that, I prefer the chart developed by Rich Hill of Pats Pulpit, which looks at historical draft trade data.
There are a couple of caveats to using trade charts in this scenario. The first is that trade charts don’t do a lot to account for future picks. There is a rule of thumb that adding a year decreases the value of a pick by one round, but that is more true for mid-round picks (so a future fourth would be counted as a fifth) than the high value of first round picks. To account for this, I will put first-round picks at the value of the top pick of the round for future years.
A 2024 first will be equivalent to No. 33 overall, and a 2025 first will be equivalent to No. 65 overall. The second issue is that teams historically give up significantly more value in trades up for QBs than for other positions. This can be seen in the table above. I will try to account for this as I go through the exercise.
Looking at the Rich Hill Chart, Arizona’s pick is worth 514 points. Minnesota’s pick at 23 is worth 245. To even out the value, the Vikings can add in their 2024 and 2025 firsts and their fifth-round pick at 158. This totals to 513 points on the chart, almost identical to the value of the Cardinals’ pick.
However, as I mentioned, San Francisco’s trade up for Trey Lance will likely be viewed as a minimum return for a deal. Three firsts and a fifth is less than what the 49ers sent in that trade. If we look at the Jimmy Johnson chart, it would take significantly more draft capital. Arizona’s pick is worth 2,200 points, while Minnesota’s first pick is only worth 760. If the Vikings offer the Cardinals’ No. 23, No. 87, their 2024 first and second, and their 2025 first and second, it would come out to about 2,100 points on the chart. While that’s still a bit short of 2,200, it’s likely that the 2025 picks are worth more than the third- and fourth-round value that I am assigning them. That amount of draft capital should easily get the deal done.
The real trade value likely lies somewhere in the middle. Splitting the difference could mean the Vikings send a package like No. 23, their 2024 first and second, and their 2025 first. Or they could send something No. 23, No. 87, their 2024 first and fourth, and their 2025 first.
Another way the Vikings could move up is by using a pick in the teens as an intermediary. This is what the Buffalo Bills did in 2018, and the Eagles also did it in 2016. The Vikings have two players with uncertain futures on the team in Za’Darius Smith and Dalvin Cook that could be used as bargaining chips in this move. Both still have significant contributions left in them, but more value may be required based on their age (for Smith) and position (for Cook). From that point, they could be able to give the 49ers trade of three first-round picks and a third.
What will the Vikings be willing to Pay?
We’ve established what it might take to move up to No. 3, but that doesn’t tell us whether or not the Vikings would be willing to execute that trade. In 2022, GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah’s first draft, he established that he likes to wheel and deal. The team traded four times on the first two days of the draft. Those moves gave some insight into how Adofo-Mensah values picks.
The first trade was a clear example that Adofo-Mensah thinks that trading down provides a team with more surplus value than most teams do. Using the Rich Hill and Jimmy Johnson charts, it appears that Kwesi lost the trade. But using the charts that evaluate the outcomes of each draft slot, he seems to clearly have won.
If you look at the overall results of the trades made on the first two days, you see a similar pattern:
Looking at this information, it’s pretty straightforward to conclude that Adofo-Mensah values early draft picks less than his opposing GMs. This line up with most thinking in the analytics space, where analysts advocate typically advocate for trading down. However, they have also found that QB selections are significantly more valuable than any other position.
If Adofo-Mensah subscribes to this idea that QBs early in the draft are vastly more valuable than other positions, like he seems to with the value of draft picks in general, then there may be a chance the Vikings are willing to execute a trade and spend what it takes to get up to No. 3 overall.
Conclusion
With rumors swirling around the Vikings taking a QB in the draft, it may make sense for them to move up to No. 3 overall to do so. To improve on the incumbent Kirk Cousins, they would need to add a QB with very high upside, and that will be hard to find at pick No. 23. Four QBs are projected to go in the top 10.
The cost to trade up will be high, involving at least three first-round picks. Given Adofo-Mensah’s willingness to trade down last year, it seems unlikely the Vikings would be willing to give up that much in a move up. However, if Adofo-Mensah also subscribes to the analytics idea that QBs transcend typical pick value, he may be willing to make an exception.
